Why Montana Is a Test Case for Democrats Winning the Senate – The New York Times
Follow our latest coverage of the Biden vs. Trump 2020 election here.
BOZEMAN, Mont. In the deeply polarized election of 2016, every state that supported President Trump backed Republican senators and each state that Hillary Clinton carried voted for a Democratic Senate candidate.
But four years later, Democratic hopes for gaining a clear Senate majority depend in part on winning in conservative-leaning states where Mr. Trump may also prevail, even as he sags in the polls. In states like Alaska, Iowa, Georgia and here in Montana, Democrats are hoping their Senate candidates can outperform Joseph R. Biden Jr., their presumptive nominee.
Thats the dynamic Gov. Steve Bullock is counting on in Montana, where ticket-splitting is as much a way of life as fly-fishing.
Montanans have supported Republican presidential candidates, with one exception, for over a half-century. In that same period, though, they have elected a series of Democratic governors and senators. Senator Steve Daines, whom Mr. Bullock is challenging, was the first Republican elected to the Senate seat that he holds in over a century.
Yet as he faces off against Mr. Bullock, whose popularity has risen as he leads the states coronavirus response, Mr. Daines is counting on Montanans to act a little more like voters everywhere else and stick with one party as they make their way down the ballot.
The race here will measure the political impact of the pandemic many governors have grown in stature for their handling of the virus, and Mr. Bullock is the only sitting governor running for the Senate. It will also test Montanas iconoclastic identity in a time of encroaching red-and-blue homogeneity.
But for Democrats, going on the offensive in a red-leaning state in an age of polarization is no easy task. By nominating the more moderate Mr. Biden, they hope they can at least lose more closely, if not win outright, in states where Mrs. Clinton was thrashed and her partys Senate candidates went down with her.
The reason he was so strong in 16 is because you could go up and down here Democrats and Republicans would both tell you they hate Hillary, Jon Tester, a Democrat who is Montanas senior senator, said of Mr. Trump over an afternoon beer in Great Falls.
Even as Mrs. Clinton lost Montana overwhelmingly, though, Mr. Bullock still managed to get re-elected as governor.
A Helena-reared lawyer who made a foray for president last year, Mr. Bullock has won statewide office three times, first as attorney general before he became governor.
Montanans know me, he said in an interview, explaining how hed overcome Republican claims that hed abet liberal voices in Washington. Ive worked with Republicans to get things done.
Winning a federal race, in which the issues are more national in scope, is difficult enough for a Democrat in a red state. But Mr. Bullock made that task harder by leaving Montana for half of 2019 to run for president, drifting to the left on some issues and repeatedly insisting he would not fall back to seek the Senate seat.
Without prompting last week, though, he noted that he had stood up to President Barack Obamas administration on environmental policies he thought were harmful to Montanas agriculture and energy sectors.
Such talk was notably absent from his White House bid, when he sought the Democratic nomination by edging to the left on gun control and deeming Mr. Trump a lying con man from New York with orange hair and a golden toilet.
Asked if his ridicule of Mr. Trump was over the line, he suggested some regret.
By Washington standards, not at all, Mr. Bullock explained. By my typical standards, stronger than things that I would typically say.
Navigating Mr. Trump is a delicate issue for Montana Democrats, who must energize their liberal base without alienating the states ticket-splitters. Mr. Tester aired ads in his 2018 re-election campaign trumpeting his work with the president, which helped blunt the impact of Mr. Trumps four trips to the state that year.
Few G.O.P. senators have so happily linked themselves to Mr. Trump as Mr. Daines, a chemical engineer by training who represented Montana as its lone congressman before winning his Senate seat in 2014.
In an interview in his Bozeman campaign office, he said he was eager for the president to return to the state and revealed that Mr. Trump had asked to come, too.
However, just as Mr. Bullocks ill-fated bid for president has complicated his attempt to run again in Montana, the coronavirus has created headwinds for Mr. Daines.
Mr. Trumps standing here has fallen, as it has elsewhere, because of his ineffective response to the outbreak. Some Republican polling this summer suggests he is leading Mr. Biden only by single digits in Montana.
Asked to assess the presidents performance on the pandemic, Mr. Daines largely sidestepped the question, stating that he supported letting states and localities have primacy.
Further muddling matters for Mr. Daines: Any effort by him to embrace the national Republican strategy of pinning the blame on China for the viruss spread in America is complicated by his years of work for Procter & Gamble in China. Democrats are already airing commercials highlighting the senators work in the country.
More than anything, though, the health crisis has created challenges for Mr. Daines by delaying the parry-and-thrust of the campaign, allowing Mr. Bullock to enjoy what his opponent called a rally around the flag bounce.
Mr. Daines acknowledged that his role was more of constituent service specialist than candidate and that the virus was foremost on the minds of voters.
These are third-generation business owners that are crying on the phone to me, saying: Steve, Im losing everything, he recalled. And so in that moment youre not thinking so much about, Well, Steve Bullock got an F on guns and I got an A+. Its not the discussion.
That was easy enough to see as the two officials made their way across this sprawling state, where the metric for a candidates sweat equity is in tires changed, not shoes replaced.
In the Flathead region, near Glacier National Park, Mr. Bullock visited a food bank. As he toured a nearby timber facility, the governor was joined by an employee, a Trump voter now dejected by the countrys state of affairs, whose stepmother had contracted the virus.
Closer to Great Falls, Mr. Daines was similarly confronted with fallout from the pandemic.
He visited a small agricultural equipment dealer who thanked him for the paycheck protection loan that he had received through Congress. It was a big help, said the dealer, Steven Raska, explaining that he had been able to pay a few employees for over two months with the money.
Demonstrating his clout with the Trump administration, Mr. Daines also convened a round-table event for ranchers and farmers that featured Bill Northey, a top administrator at the Department of Agriculture. The growers gave both men an earful about how the virus had upended their livelihoods.
Covid could not have hit the sheep industry at a worse time, said Leah Johnson, who runs the Montana Wool Growers Association.
With the virus spiking in the state, Mr. Bullock finally issued a mask mandate on July 15 for any county with four or more active cases.
Former Senator Max Baucus, a Democrat who represented the state in Congress for nearly 40 years, said the pandemic had initially lifted Mr. Bullock.
But the trouble with Covid is you cant get out and shake hands, and that would help him compare himself to Daines, said Mr. Baucus, explaining that he had overcome Montanas national Republican leaning by cultivating individual voters. My main approach to the state was: people, people, people.
The uncertainty surrounding the virus, and Montanas heterodox political nature, were on display Thursday in Bozeman. A few dozen protesters in Trump gear hoisted signs and marched down the citys commercial center in opposition to the mask order.
They passed a number of storefronts that even before the mandate had asked customers to wear masks a reflection of the changing nature of Bozeman. Theres now a Lululemon, sitting across the street from a coffee shop plastered with anti-racism signs that could have been pulled from the most liberal college campus (De-Prioritize White Comfort).
Few places have as strong a sense of place as Montana, where politicians routinely invoke how many generations their families go back in the state. This focus on rootedness and the states sparse population have helped perpetuate its independent streak as races remain more about the individual.
We have six people per square mile and three times as many cows as people, so that makes for a lot of reliance, said Marc Racicot, a former Republican governor. The social connection is a little richer and not so contaminated with only electronic communications.
Yet even as it treasures its status as The Last, Best Place, one of its slogans, Montana, which has about one million people, is being reshaped by transplants. And nowhere more so than Bozeman, a community cherished for its proximity to Yellowstone Park that locals now call Bozeangeles.
Traditionally, Democrats won statewide by winning or breaking even in the county surrounding Billings, the population center of Montanas Republican-dominated east. Thats changing, though, because of the rising population in Gallatin County, which includes Bozeman and is the fastest-growing jurisdiction in the state.
Mr. Testers trajectory in Gallatin County tells the story of Montanas transformation: Over three elections, Mr. Tester has gone from winning 49 percent to 51.5 percent to 59.4 percent there.
Once rooted in labor, the Democratic coalition here increasingly reflects the national party, with its twin pillars of upscale whites and working-class minorities (Native Americans in the case of Montana).
These urban spaces are growing dramatically, and these spaces are becoming the heart of the Democratic base here, said David Parker, a Montana State University professor who wrote a book on the 2012 Senate race.
At the same time, though, Republicans are winning their heavily rural base by even larger margins today: Even Mr. Tester, a descendant of homesteaders who is the only working farmer in the Senate, has seen his support sag in sparsely populated counties since he first ran in 2006.
It adds up to a shrinking pool of persuadable voters.
Its not quite like what it was, Mr. Racicot acknowledged, before hinting at why so many people want to move to Montana. But its a lot closer to that ideal than the rest of the nation.
View post:
Why Montana Is a Test Case for Democrats Winning the Senate - The New York Times
- Who is Rep. Al Green, the Democrat removed from Trump's speech to Congress - Axios - March 5th, 2025 [March 5th, 2025]
- Who Is Al Green, the Texas Democrat Ejected From Trumps Speech? - The New York Times - March 5th, 2025 [March 5th, 2025]
- Who is giving the rebuttal after Trump's speech? Meet Democrat Elissa Slotkin - USA TODAY - March 5th, 2025 [March 5th, 2025]
- Democrat Al Green forced out of chamber after protesting Trump speech to Congress - The Independent - March 5th, 2025 [March 5th, 2025]
- In response to Trump, Democrat calls for responsible changes to government - Voice of America - March 5th, 2025 [March 5th, 2025]
- Democrat Al Green removed from House after interrupting, heckling Trump - The Hill - March 5th, 2025 [March 5th, 2025]
- How one Democrat is placing himself at the center of the Trump resistance: From the Politics Desk - NBC News - March 5th, 2025 [March 5th, 2025]
- Democrat Al Green confronts Trump and is removed from House chamber - The Associated Press - March 5th, 2025 [March 5th, 2025]
- Democrats are United Against House Republicans Plot to Cut Social Security and Health Care for Hardworking Americans - New Democrat Coalition - March 5th, 2025 [March 5th, 2025]
- Opinion | A Democrat Who Is Thinking Differently - The New York Times - February 18th, 2025 [February 18th, 2025]
- Democrat: Vance used same language as Hitler did to justify Holocaust - The Hill - February 18th, 2025 [February 18th, 2025]
- Democrat governors arranged meeting with Biden White House to thwart Trump, emails show - The Lion - February 18th, 2025 [February 18th, 2025]
- Democrat Senator Admits Criticism of 'Over-Wokeism' Is 'Valid Attack' - Newsweek - February 18th, 2025 [February 18th, 2025]
- Voting for the Watauga Democrat's Best of the Best now open - Watauga Democrat - February 18th, 2025 [February 18th, 2025]
- Texas Democrat to Bring First Articles of Impeachment of Trump's Second Term - Newsweek - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- Adams, a Trump-friendly Democrat, to testify before House GOP on sanctuary cities - POLITICO - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- GOP lawmaker scraps with Democrat in hearing over transgender 'slur,' bathroom rights: 'Not going to have it' - Fox News - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- New York Democrat eyeing Stefanik's seat ripped Border Patrol, corrections officers in resurfaced interview - Yahoo News - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- USAID: This Democrat has a plan for fighting Musk. Heres what he wants you to know. - Slate - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- GOP congresswoman scraps with Democrat in hearing over transgender 'slur,' bathroom rights: 'Not going to have it' - Fox News - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- Fetterman lone Democrat so far to attend immigration bill signing - POLITICO - January 30th, 2025 [January 30th, 2025]
- Democrat Appears to Flip Iowa State Senate Seat in a Boost for the Party - The New York Times - January 30th, 2025 [January 30th, 2025]
- Trump strips labor board of last Democrat, halting cases and labor law reform - McKnight's Long-Term Care News - January 30th, 2025 [January 30th, 2025]
- Democrat members of US surveillance watchdog fired after refusing to resign - The Record from Recorded Future News - January 30th, 2025 [January 30th, 2025]
- Authorities ID man fatally shot during weekend altercation in Santa Rosa - The Santa Rosa Press Democrat - January 30th, 2025 [January 30th, 2025]
- Milwaukee Tool Hole Saw operations moving to Grenada from Greenwood - Delta Democrat Times - January 30th, 2025 [January 30th, 2025]
- Maine Democrat backs partial offshore wind ban - E&E News - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Every Senate Democrat Votes No on Born-Alive Protections - Decision Magazine - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Just one House Democrat votes for the protection for abortion survivors - Washington Examiner - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- SSUs unprecedented $20 million in cuts slashes programs, departments, athletics: Heres what we know - The Santa Rosa Press Democrat - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- A Democrat Won a Supreme Court Election in North Carolina. GOP Justices Are Blocking Her Certification. - Truthout - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- This is personal to me: Louisville Democrat will try again to add exceptions to abortion ban - Kentucky Lantern - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- We need to be in the room: DOGE Caucus Democrat works with GOP to slash spending - NBC News - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Democrat elected speaker of tied Pennsylvania House after GOP candidate bows out - The Associated Press - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Controversial Ex-Democrat Says Trump Team More 'Humane' to Her Than DNC - Newsweek - December 25th, 2024 [December 25th, 2024]
- Who is Lindy Li? Ex-Democrat fundraiser slams party, calls departure 'Leaving a cult' after criticizing B - The Times of India - December 25th, 2024 [December 25th, 2024]
- Democrat Sherrod Brown says US Senate departure won't be the last Ohioans hear from him - CBS News - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Fairway Finders: Meet the 2024 All-Big Bend golf teams, coach and players of the year - Tallahassee Democrat - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Joe Average: Transitioning from Democrat to Republican - Sentinel-Tribune - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Karnes caps off career with another title - River Valley Democrat-Gazette - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Greenwood QB Archer on full display in title game - River Valley Democrat-Gazette - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Democrat John Fetterman Admits He 'Never' Believed Campaign Against Trump Was 'About Fascism' Despite Harris Claims - LatinTimes - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- House Democrat on spending drama: Im just gonna sit back and sip my tea - The Hill - December 20th, 2024 [December 20th, 2024]
- House Democrat on spending drama: Im just gonna sit back and sip my tea - The Hill - December 20th, 2024 [December 20th, 2024]
- Ocasio-Cortez Loses Vote to Be the Top Democrat on the Oversight Panel - The New York Times - December 20th, 2024 [December 20th, 2024]
- Ocasio-Cortez Loses Vote to Be the Top Democrat on the Oversight Panel - The New York Times - December 20th, 2024 [December 20th, 2024]
- Connolly wins vote to be top Oversight Democrat - POLITICO - December 20th, 2024 [December 20th, 2024]
- Democrat Jeffries says 'lines of communication' reopened with Johnson - ForexLive - December 20th, 2024 [December 20th, 2024]
- Democrat Jeffries says 'lines of communication' reopened with Johnson - ForexLive - December 20th, 2024 [December 20th, 2024]
- AOC loses bid to be top Democrat on powerful House Oversight Committee - Fox News - December 20th, 2024 [December 20th, 2024]
- AOC loses bid to be top Democrat on powerful House Oversight Committee - Fox News - December 20th, 2024 [December 20th, 2024]
- New Liberal Democrat members of the House of Lords - Liberal Democrats - December 20th, 2024 [December 20th, 2024]
- Democrat Sherrod Brown says US Senate departure won't be the last Ohioans hear from him - The Associated Press - December 20th, 2024 [December 20th, 2024]
- House Republicans Have a New Spending Plan. The Top House Democrat Says Its Laughable. - NOTUS - December 20th, 2024 [December 20th, 2024]
- We need to reinvent how we campaign, Democrat Susan Wild reflects on 2024 loss - Pennsylvania Capital-Star - December 20th, 2024 [December 20th, 2024]
- Angie Craig wins approval of panel to serve as ranking Democrat on House Agriculture Committee - Star Tribune - December 20th, 2024 [December 20th, 2024]
- Democrat Goldman: Wray should have forced Trump to fire him - The Hill - December 12th, 2024 [December 12th, 2024]
- OPINION | TED TALLEY: Where spirits and spirituality intersect - Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - December 12th, 2024 [December 12th, 2024]
- A California labor union helped oust a Democrat from the state Capitol. His replacement wants to curb union power. - Los Angeles Times - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Trump could get deal of the year if he gets ByteDance to sell TikTok: top Democrat on China cmte. - NBC News - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Florida lawmaker abruptly switches to GOP shortly after winning election as Democrat - Salon - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina switches from Democrat to Republican - Laredo Morning Times - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Florida Democrat switches to Republican: Tired of being the party of protesting - Washington Times - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Maryland Democrat Ben Cardin delivers his farewell speech to the Senate - WUSA9.com - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- What world do you live in?: Hawley blasts Democrat plot for mass amnesty - NewsTalk KZRG - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Did UC Merced Students Tip the US House Election for Democrat Adam Gray? - GV Wire - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Longtime Democrat switches to the GOP because of a glaring reason - Daily Mail - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Democrat State Rep Switches to Republican Party Months After Winning Reelection - The Floridian - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Ocasio-Cortez bids to become top Democrat on key House committee - The Guardian US - December 8th, 2024 [December 8th, 2024]
- Democrat governors spotlight they're the 'last line of defense' against Trump - Fox News - December 8th, 2024 [December 8th, 2024]
- The Democrat Who Was Tired of Waiting His Turn - POLITICO - December 8th, 2024 [December 8th, 2024]
- Press Secretary Reveals the Top Democrat Who Was Behind Bidens Pardon - The Daily Beast - December 8th, 2024 [December 8th, 2024]
- Democrat senator calls on Biden to pardon Trump over NY case - MSN - December 8th, 2024 [December 8th, 2024]
- Why a Florida Democrat joined the DOGE caucus that's looking to cut federal spending - NPR - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- Top US House Democrat calls on Biden to pardon working-class Americans - Reuters - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- California Democrat Flips Seat in the Last House Race to Be Called - The New York Times - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- AOC "interested" in run to be top Democrat on House Oversight Committee - Axios - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- Detroit Mayor Duggan, a longtime Democrat, will run for Michigan governor in 2026 as independent - The Associated Press - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- Senate Democrat: Multiple Republicans are waiting for the right moment to say no to Hegseth - The Hill - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- The worst vertigo of my life: People across North Bay report their experience of the earthquake - The Santa Rosa Press Democrat - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]