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THE MORTAL THREAT TO DEMOCRATS' PROGRESSIVE DREAMS, CONT'D.Yesterday I wrote about the realization among some Democrats that the party's once-hoped-for glorious future based on the support of millions of Hispanic voters might not actually happen. Democratic political scientist Ruy Teixeira, author of the influential book The Emerging Democratic Majority , which predicted just such a future, is now warning Democrats that the party is losing support among Hispanic Americans.

To that, add some striking information from the Republican pollster David Winston . A longtime adviser to some House GOP leaders, Winston notes that in 2020, congressional Republicans won 36% of the Hispanic vote up from 32% in 2016. That was better than President Donald Trump's performance with Hispanic voters, which was 32% in 2020 and 28% in 2016. And Trump's performance was better than Mitt Romney's in the 2012 election, a defeat that prompted much Republican debate over how the party could increase its appeal to Hispanic voters.

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So the GOP's improvement among Hispanic voters, and the Democratic Party's decline among that same group, extends beyond the candidacies of Trump himself. And the 36% for congressional Republicans indicates that a lot of Hispanic voters who think of themselves as independent chose to support the GOP. In the 2020 exit polls, Winston notes, just 20% of Hispanic voters identified themselves as Republicans, while 32% identified themselves as independents, and 48% identified as Democrats. Obviously, Democrats still have an advantage, but a majority, 52%, think of themselves as independents or Republicans.

Perhaps most important is ideology. Hispanics are clearly not as far to the left as today's Democratic Party. The numbers, again from Winston: 32% of Hispanics identify themselves as conservatives, opposed to just 10% of Democrats overall. On the other end of the spectrum, 46% of Democrats identify themselves as liberals, opposed to just 25% of Hispanics.

In the middle, 43% of both Hispanic voters and Democrats as a whole call themselves moderate. But the numbers clearly suggest that Hispanics tilt a bit right, while Democrats tilt much more to the left.

So Teixeira's warning from yesterday's newsletter "Hispanic voting trends have not been favorable for Democrats" stands up. This political moment holds great opportunities for Republicans to cement their progress among Hispanic voters not by pandering, but by offering all voters the same conservative message. We'll see if the GOP can do it.

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Byron York's Daily Memo: The mortal threat to Democrats progressive dreams, contd - Washington Examiner