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As energy ramps up for midterm elections, most GOP seats still considered safe.

WASHINGTON When retired fighter pilot Amy McGrath launched her congressional campaign against Kentucky Republican Andy Barr on Aug. 1, the reaction was, at least for a political novice, pretty seismic.Within a few days, she had received more than 1.2 million views on YouTube.

MSNBC put her on TV. NPR interviewed her.

Not bad for a political newcomer.

But as Democrats try to recruit strong candidates in advance of the 2018 midterm elections, its hard to know whether the enthusiasm like that generated over McGrath will translate into victory.

On paper, it looks good for Democrats: First-term presidentstraditionally have fared poorly during the midterms, and President Donald Trump had a 61 percent disapproval rating as of Aug. 1, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.

The reality for Democrats, however,is tougher than it looks.

Years of gerrymandering and a brand that even Democrats admit has struggled to maintain its traditional working-class base have caused Democrats to lose ground in recent elections.

According to the Cook Political Report, only 10 races are true toss-ups: seats in California, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Colorado, among others. No Ohio seat is listed.

The same reports, though,also finds two GOP-held Ohio seatshave the potential to become competitive: The 1st Congressional District in southwest Ohio,held by Rep. Steve Chabot, R-Cincinnati; and the 16th Congressional District in Northeast Ohio, held by Rep. Jim Renacci, R-Wadsworth, who is running for governor and who will not seek re-election.

In Chabots district, rumors of Hamilton County Commissioner Todd Portune and Cincinnati City Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld running have been steady and persistent. No Democrat has filedpetitions to run in that district, according to the Hamilton County Board of Elections. They have until February to do so.

Its one of the most urban districts in Ohio thats held by a Republican, said David Wasserman, House editor of the Cook Political Report. And it was Trumps smallest margin in the state of any seat held by a Republican. Were waiting to see who gets in.

In Renaccis district, state Rep. Christina Hagan, R-Alliance; state Rep. Tom Patton, R-Strongsville; and Darrell Hartman of Akron arerunning asRepublicans, while Aaron Godfrey of North Olmsted is running as a Democrat. Also considering a run: former NFL wide receiver and OSU football standout Anthony Gonzalez, GOP sources confirmed.

Not named on Cooks list is a congressional challenger who outraised his opponent last quarter: Ken Harbaugh, a Democrat,is challenging four-term Republican Rep. Bob Gibbs of Lakeville.

Harbaugh has money $141,924 in the bank as of June 30 and an interesting story, but he is quicker to talk about solving problems than party affiliation.

While Wasserman acknowledges Harbaughs strength, he says victory would be incredibly tough for any Democrat in that district, whereTrump wonby nearly 30 points. Rural Ohio, he said, is Trump country, and the Democratic brand is in the gutter in places like this.

If Ken Harbaugh is anywhere near Bob Gibbs in the polls come this time next year, then Democrats will already be on their way to a House majority, Wasserman said. At this point, that looks unlikely given the polarization of the electorate.

That district is really hard, though in a wave-style year wild things can happen, said Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. I just wonder if that part of the state has moved even further out of reach of Democrats.

Ask Harbaugh about the Trump effect, and hell say he gets it. His own parents voted for Trump. He said people are more focused on results than party affiliations.

People are sick and tired of zero solutions coming out of Washington, and they want to send someone who can get things done, who cares less about party than problem-solving, he said. When I lost an engine (flying) off of North Korea, party politics didnt enter into the next series of decisions we had to make. I didnt turn to my co-pilot and say, Are you Republican or Democrat? We got the plane down.

Also not on Cooks list of tossups: The Kentucky seat Barr holds the oneMcGrath hopes to win.

But McGrath doesnt even have the primary locked up, he said. Lexington Mayor Jim Gray has been mentioned as a possible Democratic candidate for the seat, and "its possible McGrath may not even be the nominee.

Any Democrat who wins that primary will face a tough battle.Barr won in 2016 with 61 percent of the vote.

These are districts that are a no mans land for Democrats,Wasserman said.

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Can Democrats' enthusiasm translate into victory? - Canton Repository