Democrats’ chance to save the House majority runs through these districts – POLITICO
If House Democrats have any hope of saving their flimsy majority in 2022, or even just limiting GOP gains, it will be thanks to candidates like Salas. He is part of a group aiming to win roughly a dozen Republican-held House seats that Joe Biden carried in 2020 perhaps the only GOP districts that are truly vulnerable this fall.
In a midterm political environment leaning so heavily against Democrats, the party will need to win a large chunk of them to have any chance of remaining in power next year. Republicans need a net gain of just five seats to take the majority, and the GOP target list includes more than 10 Democratic districts Donald Trump carried in 2020.
Stiff national headwinds have stifled Democratic recruitment in many places, and some potential contenders opted to wait for a more promising year. But party operatives have landed top-tier Democratic candidates in many Biden-won districts, in part thanks to new favorable district lines. They are state legislators and military veterans and public school educators, among other backgrounds.
Redistricting has been obviously bad for Democrats in Ohio, but its been great in Cincinnati, said Democrat Greg Landsman, an early education advocate-turned-Cincinnati city council member whos taking on GOP Rep. Steve Chabot in 2022.
Chabot was protected over the last decade by a gerrymander that sliced Cincinnati in two. But the newly drawn district unites the city, transforming the seat from one Trump carried by 3 points in 2020 to one Biden won by 9 points. Its probably the best pickup opportunity that Democrats have in 2022. He never had to run in a district remotely this competitive, Landsman said of Chabot.Salas district also became more favorable for his party, by shedding some of Valadaos home base.
House Democratic strategists see Landsman and Salas as among their top eight prospects to flip a district this year. All were won by Biden in 2020 though rising inflation and Bidens plummeting popularity have made national Republicans operatives far less concerned than the 2020 numbers might warrant.
Even so, Democrats insist theyre going on offense. And several of the partys targets are in newly redrawn districts that voted for Biden by double digits, giving the party some hope even in a more hostile environment.
Perhaps Democrats single best target is in central Illinois, where the party transformed GOP Rep. Rodney Davis Springfield-area district into one Biden carried by 11 points. Davis jumped to a neighboring seat and a primary against a fellow Republican incumbent, clearing the way for Democrat Nikki Budzinski, a former adviser to Gov. J.B. Pritzker.
Another top Democratic target is in Western Michigan, where Republican Rep. Peter Meijer is now in a district that voted for Biden by nearly 9 points. And in southern New Mexico, former Las Cruces City Councilor Gabe Vasquez, a former aide to Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), is taking on GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell in a seat redrawn by state Democrats to tilt more to the left.
In Cincinnati, Landsman won his primary last week with no competition, allowing him to devote all his efforts against Chabot, whom he outraised last quarter. Democrats also expect another recruit up this Tuesday, Nebraska state Sen. Tony Vargas, to clear his primary on Tuesday and shift his focus toward GOP Rep. Don Bacon, who represents the Biden-won district in Omaha.
In interviews, many of these recruits insisted they were not discouraged by the ominous political environment because they feel their backgrounds are uniquely suited to their home turf.
Salas, for example, has racked up huge victory margins in his California state Assembly seat elections, attracting crossover voters by bucking his own party on issues including opposing the gas tax and supporting increased funding for police.
And in Nebraska, Vargas, the son of immigrants who became a public school science teacher, lost his father, a machinist, to Covid-19. He was outraged that Bacon voted against a pandemic relief package.
We need people that come from working-class backgrounds that also have experience getting things done, Vargas said.
Bacons last opponent was a self-declared socialist who lost to him in two consecutive elections after the incumbent painted her as too far left for the swing district. In contrast, Vargas touts his bipartisan streak in the state legislature: Ive been able to get a lot done across the aisle.
While some Democrats in the Biden-GOP districts are skating through primaries, others have been more contentious. In the Los Angeles area, Christy Smith is seeking her third matchup against Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) after losing the first two.
But some national Democrats are pushing for first-time candidate Quaye Quartey, a Navy intelligence officer. He and his supporters argue hes a better contender against Garcia.
He and I are both Naval Academy graduates, former officers even though I outrank him. Were both people of color, were both first generation Americans, Quartey said in an interview, as he compared their bios.
The seat, which Republicans unexpectedly won in a 2020 special election, went for Biden by double digits in 2020, as Garcia held on to the seat by just 333 votes last fall.
The past two cycles, with all due respect to the former candidate, we didnt get it done, Quartey said when asked about running against Smith.
Still, while Biden-won territory isnt solid ground for Republicans, it also means that many of the incumbents have experience winning elections in tougher environments than they may face in 2022. Garcia and Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) who was one of just three Republicans in Hillary Clinton-won districts to survive the 2018 Democratic wave each have just under $2 million banked already.
Democrat feels their likely nominee against Fitzpatrick, Ashley Ehasz, has a compelling profile as an Army veteran but her campaign had just $90,000 on hand as of April.
And Democrats are a bit less optimistic about seats that Biden carried by a smaller margin. Democratic physician Asif Mahmood is challenging GOP Rep. Young Kim in an Orange County seat that Biden won by just 2 points. Navy veteran Jay Chen is slightly better positioned in Republican Rep. Michelle Steels neighboring district, which Biden won by 6 points.
In addition to California, Democrats had high hopes for New York where the partys state legislators had drawn a lopsided gerrymander. But the states high court tossed out the map, scrambling plans to turn at least three GOP-held seats into strong Biden districts.
One district in upstate New York, held by retiring GOP Rep. John Katko, is likely to remain a top, Democratic-leaning pickup opportunity. Attorney Josh Riley and veteran Francis Conole are running there.
But an open seat on Long Island and another GOP-held district on Staten Island are likely to be far less Democratic-friendly under the new court-drawn map. Thats bad news for former Rep. Max Rose (D-N.Y.), a Purple Heart-winning combat vet seeking a rematch with GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis on Staten Island.
Rose is one of a handful of Democratic candidates who are making another go this election after a previous failed bid with hope they can pull off a win in a slightly better seat.
Democrats are also throwing support behind Hillary Scholten, a former DOJ attorney, as she prepares to face Meijer in his newly redrawn district.
The freshman Republican once said his vote to impeach former President Donald Trump may have been political suicide but in addition to a GOP primary, he has to contend with a newly competitive district. The new lines, drawn by a nonpartisan commission, take in portions of Grand Rapids that Scholten easily won in 2020 and add voters from other Democratic strongholds, like 20,000-student Grand Valley State University.
Were going to target every last one of those voters and make sure they know they not only have a chance to influence this seat, Scholten said, but also have a nationally important impact on the battle for the House.
CORRECTION: A previous version of this report misstated Gabe Vasquezs title. He is a former Las Cruces city councilor.
View post:
Democrats' chance to save the House majority runs through these districts - POLITICO
- Democrats Lost Them: Heres Why 2020 Biden Voters Sat Out The 2024 Election - Rolling Stone - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Opinion | Have the Democrats found their version of Trump? - The Washington Post - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- These Sick Criminals Are Who Democrats and the Legacy Media Are Defending - The White House (.gov) - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Obama, Healey, more Democrats praise Harvard for rejecting Trump administration's demands - Fall River Herald News - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Lawsuit alleging fraud could leave Democrats with no candidate in Onondaga Countys 9th District - Syracuse.com - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Scoop: Top House Democrats are trying to send a delegation to El Salvador - Axios - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- WA Democrats propose 5 new tax bills on Tax Dayand theyre coming for the big dogs - MyNorthwest.com - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Democrats dislike the chaos of Trumps trade war but are OK with some tariffs - AP News - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Democrats Get an Unconventional Candidate in the Race Against Joni Ernst - notus.org - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Democrats newest villain is a power player youve never heard of - Politico - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Washington Senate Democrats amend 'Parents Bill of Rights' - MyNorthwest.com - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Never had an auditor do something like this. Diana DiZoglio fights, polarizes her fellow Democrats. - The Boston Globe - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- New books chart Bidens downfall and the picture is damning for Democrats - The Guardian - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Democrats accuse GOP senators of affirmative action for Iowa med school - Iowa Capital Dispatch - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Rep. Josh Harder on why Democrats should be angrier at the status quo - Roll Call - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Republicans Less Trusted on Economy Than Democrats For First Time in Years - Newsweek - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Trump rode to victory on the economy. Democrats see a way to flip that on its head. - Politico - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- The Next Generation of Democrats Dont Plan to Wait Their Turn - The New York Times - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Live updates: Democrats seize on volatility of Trump trade policies - The Washington Post - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- The middle is disappearing: Why three dealmaking Senate Democrats are heading for the exits - CNN - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Democrats problem isnt just messaging its the electoral math | David Daley - The Guardian - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- The House: Democrats Favored on What Starts as a Small Battlefield - Sabato's Crystal Ball - Center For Politics - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Four Democrats join Republicans to pass SAVE Act bill that requires proof of citizenship to vote - The Independent - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Democrats running for California governor take digs at Kamala Harris' delayed decision on the race - Los Angeles Times - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Democrats Grill Officials on Insider Profits From Trumps Tariff Reversal - Mother Jones - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- The Early Signs These Democrats Are Running For President in 2028 - The Daily Beast - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- House Republicans and Democrats say the US must maintain its troop totals in Europe - AP News - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Democrats look to force Republicans to choose between backing Trump or lessening tariff pain - CNN - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- The Democrats Wont Acknowledge the Scale of Trumps Tariff Mess - The Atlantic - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Democrats reveal their top targets to flip in 2026 - Politico - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Opinion | Democrats Can Be the Party That Wants to Make Americans Rich - The New York Times - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Virginia elections will test the backlash against Musk and Democrats are ready with a plan - The Guardian - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Democrats wrestle with how hard to swing away from tariffs - Semafor - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- With protests and action, Democrats just had their best week since Election Day - MSNBC News - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Opinion | Another Group the Democrats Should Stop Taking for Granted - The New York Times - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Democrats Shouting 'Insider Trading!' After Trump's Tariff Pivot Need To Sit This One Out For Obvious Reasons - OutKick - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Democrats Had a Messaging Problem. Trump Just Solved It for Them. - New York Magazine - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Banking Democrats Call on Chairman Scott to Hold Hearing on Trumps Disastrous Use of Emergency Powers to Impose Tariffs and Cause Chaos for American... - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Democrats look to make a play for GOP turf with surge of new candidates - Politico - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- AIPAC attacks Democrats who voted to stop arms sales to Israel - The Forward - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Elon Musk Helped Democrats Get Their Act Together, But What If He Goes Away? - HuffPost - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Oregon Democrats unveil ambitious road funding proposal. Now the haggling begins - Oregon Public Broadcasting - OPB - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Bernie Sanders is drawing record crowds as he pushes Democrats to 'fight oligarchy' - NPR - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- The Democrats' 10 theories driving the party's crisis - Axios - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Democrats Are Taking Their Anger Out on Chuck Schumer - The Wall Street Journal - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Column | Democrats confront the wrath of their voters, just as Republicans have - The Washington Post - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- We Dug Into the Polls. Democrats in Congress Should Be Very Afraid. - POLITICO - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Democrats US tour gathers support in fight against Trump: Get angry, man - The Guardian US - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- The Democrats Are Losing the Social Media Wars. This Young Socialist Is Changing That. - POLITICO - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Democrats clashed over their shutdown strategy. But the party's identity crisis runs far deeper - The Associated Press - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Harris dominates in new poll on who Democrats would back in 2028 - with AOC in third - The Independent - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- With Democrats in disarray and Trump on the attack, many ask what is the way forward - Colorado Public Radio - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- They hate us: Democrats now fear midterms could result in their ouster as voters want candidates to take on Trump - Yahoo - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Opinion | The Last Thing Democrats Need Is Their Own Tea Party - The New York Times - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Democrats feel the heat at town halls, too: From the Politics Desk - NBC News - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- I wish youd be angry. California Democrats face voter fury over Trump, Elon Musk - Los Angeles Times - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- The spending bill fight split Democrats. 2 strategists offer takes on party's future - NPR - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Amid Schumer Backlash, Heres Whos Vying to Lead Democrats - TIME - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Politics have changed but the Democrats havent they are old and out of touch | Moira Donegan - The Guardian - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Democrats are desperately searching for new leaders. AOC is stepping into the void. - NBC News - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- California Democrats are in control. So why are they worried? - POLITICO - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on Democrats clashing over how to govern in the minority - PBS NewsHour - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Democrats Internal Battle Isnt Over Ideology, but How Hard to Fight Trump - The New York Times - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- White House political chief warns the GOP: Democrats are running angry - POLITICO - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- 'We have questions': Mass. residents flood congressional Democrats' town halls, calling for action - WBUR News - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Bill Maher warns that Democrats are 'gonna be the Whigs' if they don't fix this big problem - Yahoo News - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Democrats are failing to meet the moment amid Trumps unconstitutional power grab - MSNBC - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Democrats host town hall meetings in GOP districts throughout the Tampa Bay area - WFLA - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Democrats are angry, disillusioned over failure to stand up to Trump and Musk - The Washington Post - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Trump appeals rulings that blocked his firings of Democrats on independent federal boards - Government Executive - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Video: Opinion | Democrats Need to Face Why Trump Won - The New York Times - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Democrats are reeling. Is Stephen A Smith the way back to the White House? - The Guardian US - March 9th, 2025 [March 9th, 2025]
- Democrats Turn to Sports Radio and Podcasts to Try to Reach Young Men - The New York Times - March 9th, 2025 [March 9th, 2025]
- Progressive activists have an agenda for resisting Trump. Will Democrats follow it? - USA TODAY - March 9th, 2025 [March 9th, 2025]
- Walz, reflecting on 2024 race, says Democrats played it too safe - The Washington Post - March 9th, 2025 [March 9th, 2025]
- The 10 Democrats who voted to censure Rep. Al Green are misreading the moment - MSNBC - March 9th, 2025 [March 9th, 2025]
- House Republicans unveil bill to avoid shutdown and they're daring Democrats to oppose it - CNBC - March 9th, 2025 [March 9th, 2025]
- I was dumbfounded by Democrats' response to Trump's speech. They are in denial. | Opinion - Detroit Free Press - March 9th, 2025 [March 9th, 2025]
- House Republicans unveil bill to avoid shutdown and theyre daring Democrats to oppose it - The Associated Press - March 9th, 2025 [March 9th, 2025]
- Can democrats find their way out of the wilderness? - NPR - March 9th, 2025 [March 9th, 2025]