Democrats gripped by special election performance anxiety – Politico
Money is flooding into Democrat Jon Ossoffs campaign. The national party has started running focus groups on his behalf. Thousands of volunteers have flocked to his team to help him win his April special election for a vacant Atlanta-area congressional seat.
The race for Georgias 6th District has suddenly become a focal point, viewed as a chance to send Donald Trump a message by channeling the partys grass-roots rage, energy and frustration into a single contest. But party leaders are growing increasingly frustrated by the nationalization of this race and another in Montana and worried about unrealistic expectations in Republican-friendly seats where the Democrats are at a decided disadvantage.
Story Continued Below
Just a few high-profile losses in races framed as referendums on the Trump agenda, Democrats fear, and the currently heightened level of engagement and hope might fall off the cliff.
I would caution heavily against resting the entire future of a party on the outcome of a special election, warned Rebecca DeHart, the Georgia Democratic Partys executive director.
You can make two mistakes with special elections. One is to over-read and assume that because you won or lost, that is a predictor of the midterms. The flip side is that you can under-read, said strategist Jesse Ferguson, a former top official at the House Democrats campaign wing.
The polarizing nature of the presidential election and the early months of the Trump administration are already amplifying the noise surrounding not just the Georgia special election but a handful of congressional special elections slated in coming months. The national press, and activists and officials in both parties, are looking for clues to understand Trumps newly refashioned political landscape in places like Montana, where theres a contest to replace Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke; in South Carolina, where Budget Director Mick Mulvaneys former seat is vacant; in Kansas, where CIA Director Mike Pompeos seat is open; and in California, where theres a crowded contest to succeed Xavier Becerra, now the states attorney general.
Nowhere is grass-roots Democratic optimism more acute than in Georgia, where Ossoff, a 30-year-old documentary filmmaker, is vying to capture the suburban Atlanta seat left vacant by Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price. The state is trending toward battleground status, and Trump won the district in question by a single percentage point.
Ossoff has raised millions of dollars online from angry activists, and he spent Thursday night at a fundraiser hosted for him by party bigwigs like Reps. Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, James Clyburn and John Lewis at Democratic National Committee headquarters.
A Pelosi-signed fundraising email for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee claimed on Thursday that the energy surrounding the race has Republicans terrified.
But local and national Democrats alike see risk in raising expectations too high. Trump may have underperformed there in November, but Price typically won the seat by landslide margins. At best, Ossoff is a long shot and local party officials fear even a narrow Ossoff loss could create the impression that Georgia is still too red to warrant attention from the national party.
Special elections are indicators, not prognosticators. They are testing grounds, but not conclusive proof-points, [so] it can be a mistake to read into a special election as giving the party a perfect road map for where to invest in the future. But at the same time, ignoring the consequences of these testing grounds comes at your peril," said Ferguson.
The Georgia race will feature an April primary with candidates of all parties, and assuming none reaches 50 percent, there will be a June runoff thats widely expected to pit Ossoff against a Republican who will likely be the favorite.
If Jon Ossoff is the future of the Democratic Party, the future is very bright for Republicans. Jon Ossoff has a better chance of being cast as Han Solo in the next 'Star Wars' movie than becoming a member of Congress, said Corry Bliss, executive director of the American Action Network and Congressional Leadership Fund, groups tied to GOP House leadership which has run anti-Ossoff ads. He was alluding to clips that have circulated of Ossoff dressed as that character in college.
Not all of the special elections are viewed as Trump-era barometers. The South Carolina and Kansas seats are expected to remain in GOP hands, while the Los Angeles-area seat is almost certain to remain in Democratic control. But along with the Georgia contest, the May special election for Montanas at-large House seat is being watched closely, and some Democrats see it as a promising if slightly more difficult pick-up opportunity.
In its endorsement of Rob Quist, the Democratic nominee, the popular liberal website Daily Kos described the race as "the perfect test, then, of a populist outsider versus an out-of-touch one-percenter.
But the conventional wisdom in Montana is that in order to win statewide, a Democrat needs exceedingly high name recognition. That doesnt describe Quist, a musician who is running against Greg Gianforte, a businessman who waged an unsuccessful challenge against Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock in 2016.
There are some people on the national level who are saying this is the referendum of whatll happen with Trump, because our state went for Trump. But the reality is its local. Our state is unique: We elected Steve Bullock and Trump by a wide margin, said Jim Larson, chairman of the state Democratic Party.
Get the latest news and scoops first, every morning in your inbox.
By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Bullock himself warned against attempts to nationalize the race.
We havent really seen what this election is going to look like, he said. Its hard to say its going to be one thing or another until it starts to be a little more defined.
Montana GOP chairman Jeff Essmann, a local legislator and former state Senate president, said hes skeptical about Democratic chances in a state where Trump won easily.
If they want a laboratory for that, they need to do it in a state where Trump didnt win by 20 percent, like Montana, said Essmann. Hes very popular, his policies are, and I think this race is going to simply come down to a race between one experienced candidate who will support the Trump agenda and one who will oppose it."
Even local Democrats are hesitant to use their race as a potential piece of evidence regarding Trumps standing among voters.
For Democrats and Republicans to [look at the results and] say, Oh, America hates Trump, or America loves Trump? Well, both of that is true, said Larson. Can there be lessons learned on elections that we win? Well, what worked in Delaware isnt necessarily going to work in Montana."
Read the rest here:
Democrats gripped by special election performance anxiety - Politico
- D.C. U.S. attorney probing Democrats over alleged threats, documents show - The Washington Post - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Democrats face pressure to fight Trump agenda, but have limited power in the minority - NPR - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Democrats need to use spending battle to control Trump, Tammy Baldwin says - POLITICO - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Democrats in Congress Lack Trust From Their Own Voters: Poll - Newsweek - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Democrats Announce Plan To Increase Special Education Funding By $40M - CT News Junkie - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- The Interview: Senator Ruben Gallego on the Democrats Problem - The New York Times - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Rep. Alma Adams says Democrats are challenging the Trump administration on several fronts - WFAE - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Republicans are teeing up the next big immigration test for nervous Democrats. Activist groups are watching. - POLITICO - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Democrats Fear They Are Missing the Moment to Remake the Party - The New York Times - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Florida Democrats file bill to repeal six-week abortion ban - WCTV - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Idaho Democrats criticize GOP over Medicaid and education bills - Idaho News - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- The more Democrats fight, the more they'll lose: Former Speaker McCarthy - Fox News - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Senator Warner: Democrats brand is really bad - POLITICO Europe - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Column: Democrats belatedly wake up to start battling Trump and Musk - Los Angeles Times - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- What to expect as Republicans and Democrats meet in Detroit this weekend to select new party chairs - Michigan Advance - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Opinion | Why I still criticize Democrats more than Trump - The Washington Post - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Democrats intend to rapidly pass $40 million spending package to fund special education programs - WTNH.com - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Michael Cohen warns Democrats that Trump 'already owns the libs' and that attacking him 'doesn't work' - Fox News - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- What can Democrats do about Trump and Musk's policy blitz? Here's what Washington lawmakers say - The Spokesman Review - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Gov. Hochul Meeting With Top Democrats About "The Path Forward" For New York City - Legislative Gazette - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Democrats call out Trump actions on Tesla, Musk - The Hill - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- This Small Rust-Belt City Holds the Secret to Democrats Latino Woes - The New Republic - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Democrats Swear Theyll Fight Elon Musk. But What About the Cash They Took From SpaceX? - The Intercept - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- More Democrats Favor Party Moderation Than in Past - Gallup.com - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- What is WAs parental bill of rights? And how are Democrats seeking to change it? - Washington State Standard - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Will an Allegheny County property tax hike haunt Democrats running for County Council? - 90.5 WESA - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- RFK Jr. confirmed as Trump's health secretary, over Democrats' loud objections - NPR - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- As Trump steamrolls Washington, Democrats search for a strategy and a voice - The Christian Science Monitor - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Strategic Vision's 2025 Most Loved Vehicle Awards: Republicans and Democrats Choose EVs as their Most Loved Vehicle, and It's Not Tesla - Business... - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- New to the Senate, Gallego challenges Democrats' views on 'working-class Latinos' - NPR - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Republicans think economy will improve over the next year, Democrats expect it to get worse - Pew Research Center - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Democrats rage against DOGE but shouldnt everyone be against waste? - The Hill - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Democrats unveil state legislative map for the next election cycle, with eyes on opposing Trump's agenda and redistricting - NBC News - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- FLORIDA DEMOCRATS RESPOND TO PASSAGE OF IMMIGRATION BILLS - Florida Democratic Party - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Letter From House Democrats on Justice Department Officials - The New York Times - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Democrats call Musk and DOGE 'evil.' But Trump is doing what Americans want. | Opinion - USA TODAY - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Opinion | Why Democrats Fail the Immigration Test Every Time - The New York Times - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Democrats are divided on government shutdown threats - POLITICO - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- "People are pissed": Inside Democrats' growing tension with their grassroots allies - Axios - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Latinos Bolted to the Right in 2024. Can Democrats Win Them Back? - The New York Times - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Aguilar says Democrats would oppose spending bill with Department of Education cuts - NBC News - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Democrats Need Judges to Rein In Trump. Theres No Plan B. - TIME - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Full List of Republicans, Democrats Who Voted Against RFK Jr.'s Nomination - Newsweek - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Democrats target Musk in first DOGE hearing on war on waste - NewsNation Now - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Opinion | Democrats Stand Up for the Bureaucrats Against DOGE - The Wall Street Journal - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- House Democrats warn Energy Department against canceling approved loans - The Hill - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Increasing numbers of Democrats want their party to oppose Trump CBS News poll analysis - CBS News - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Can Hakeem Jeffries be the leader the Democrats want? - The Independent - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Democrats Hint at Government Shutdown to Stop Trumps Axing at Federal Agencies - The New York Times - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Adams Asks for Voters Trust as Democrats Argue He Is in Thrall to Trump - The New York Times - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Conservatives clinch longtime goal of booting Democrats from leadership ranks in Texas House - The Texas Tribune - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Chapo Trap House Isnt Going to Save the Democrats - Vanity Fair - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Omar: Democrats attending Trumps inauguration sends the wrong message - The Hill - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Texas Democrats haven't been in power for 30 years. They just lost more control at the Capitol. - KUT - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- House Democrats, Secretary of State are suing House GOP lawmakers. Heres what you need to know. - Minnesota Reformer - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- GOP Threatens Weekend Work as Democrats Test Resolve on Nominees - Bloomberg Government - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Democrats Need a Bigger Tent on Abortion - Bloomberg - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Senate Republicans refuse to work with Democrats on immigration bill - MSNBC - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump axes Democrats on intelligence and privacy oversight board - Nextgov/FCW - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- GOP leaders mull a big debt-and-funding deal with Democrats - POLITICO - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Democrats struggle to pick their message against Trumps shock-and-awe campaign - The Associated Press - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Why Democrats are still in charge of the CFPB and OCC - American Banker - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump to visit battered North Carolina towns still suffering months after Helene: 'Treated badly by Democrats' - Fox News - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump admin tells all Democrats on intelligence oversight board to resign - The Record from Recorded Future News - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Rantz: WA Democrats pulled a fast one on voters as they undo parental rights initiative - MyNorthwest - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Diminished Democrats grit their teeth through second Trump inauguration - The Washington Post - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump: We have to get Democrats to approve tax cuts - The Hill - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- NEW: Donald Trump Rolls Back Biden-Harris Rule to Lower Drug Costs for Millions of Americans - Democrats.org - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- DEI is on Trump's chopping block. See how Democrats are fighting back. - USA TODAY - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Biden tries to lift Democrats' spirits on last full day in office - Reuters - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump ejects Democrats from intelligence-and-privacy oversight board - Defense One - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Note to Wisconsin Democrats: Cut the gas tax - Isthmus - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- WA Democrats push for gun permits, safe storage and limit on bulk buys - The Seattle Times - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- 2028 Watch: Here are the Democrats who may eventually jump into the next White House race - Fox News - January 1st, 2025 [January 1st, 2025]
- Democrats Battleground Leader, Exiting Congress, Reflects on What She Learned - The New York Times - January 1st, 2025 [January 1st, 2025]
- The Democrats and Republicans Best Positioned Right Now for 2028 - POLITICO - January 1st, 2025 [January 1st, 2025]
- Democrats Brace for Mass Deportations in Sanctuary Cities As Trump's Agenda Beckons - Newsweek - January 1st, 2025 [January 1st, 2025]
- Democrats face criticism that their party lost touch with working-class voters - KUOW News and Information - January 1st, 2025 [January 1st, 2025]
- Senate Democrats to focus on economic issues and distributing opioid settlements funds - KGAN TV - January 1st, 2025 [January 1st, 2025]
- Top Beacon Hill Democrats blast local press for persistent negative media narrative - Boston Herald - January 1st, 2025 [January 1st, 2025]