Democrats need to spend money to win state houses, not just beat Trump – INSIDER
Over the course of the last two years, I've traveled across the country meeting with some of the biggest donors in Democratic politics. As the leader of an organization working to win Democratic control of statehouses ahead of redistricting, it has been my job to urge our party's biggest funders to not fall into the same trap Democrats that fell into in 2010.
That year Democrats collectively sat on our hands while Republicans invested roughly $30 million into down ballot races, won control of two-thirds of state legislatures across the country, and gerrymandered themselves into dozens of congressional seats for the next decade.
Nevertheless, many of our party's biggest funders have repeatedly told me that they are singularly focused on defeating Trump this election and won't invest in other efforts. That's a major problem for the future of the Democratic Party, the future of our democracy and the future of our country.
One would think after experiencing the decade-long effects of Republican gerrymandering from the last round of redistricting, Democratic donors would be jumping at the opportunity to prevent this from happening all over again. One might even assume that the Supreme Court's decision earlier this year, effectively giving a greenlight for partisan gerrymandering, might further raise the alarm. Sadly, that's been far from the case.
But there's an important point that has been largely overlooked in this discussion: For donors on the Democratic side, it doesn't have to be a zero-sum choice between fueling efforts to defeat Trump or supporting Democratic state legislative campaigns.
That's because the data makes clear that putting a relatively small amount of money into a key selection of battleground states could ensure Democrats are not gerrymandered out of power in Congress for decades to come.
Winning Democratic majorities in just three strategic state legislatures - specifically, Texas, Florida and North Carolina - would significantly boost Democrats' long-term power nationally and provide a crucial check on GOP gerrymandering ahead of redistricting.
Based on estimates of population growth, Texas, Florida and North Carolina are expected to have more than 80 U.S. Congressional seats following the 2020 Census. These three states have been ground zero for some of the most extreme cases of Republican gerrymandering and voter suppression over the last decade.
For those motivated to support Democratic politicians at the national level, helping Democrats flip these state legislatures is vital to preventing further Republican gerrymandering, which could lock Democrats out of power at the Congressional level for the next decade.
Our organization, Forward Majority, has analyzed the data and landscape to identify 60 races that are prime targets across these three states. We estimate that competitive campaigns with a good chance of securing Democratic majorities would cost about $30 million dollars in total.
Donations to these efforts power campaigns, ensuring all voters in a competitive district have the chance to hear messages and learn about the Democratic challenger.
It seems with each passing day, more Democratic donors are promising to spend massive amounts of money to defeat Trump in 2020.
Just the billionaires vying for the nomination, Michael Bloomberg and Tom Steyer, have promised to spend hundreds of millions to defeat Trump and fuel their campaigns. The $30 million needed to win power in key state legislatures is well below the $47.6 million from Tom Steyer and a fraction of the nearly $160 million and counting from Michael Bloomberg in their efforts to secure the Democratic nomination.
Defeating Trump is an essential, existential fight; both the stakes and costs are extremely high. But, Trump is a symptom of the rot and corruption in our political system, not the root cause. If Democrats defeat Trump but fail to counter the voter suppression and gerrymandering that tear at the heart of fairness, representation and accountability in our democracy, we will be all the more vulnerable to the next aspirational authoritarian who rises after him.
The good news is that, by investing in winning Democratic majorities in legislatures in a handful of states, billionaire White House hopefuls can also make a far-reaching impact in politics and in the lives of thousands of Americans over the next decade for pennies on the dollar.
The reality is that if just one of them put a small fraction of those funds, $30 million, behind targeted legislative races in these three states, we would mitigate the greatest risks of voter suppression and gerrymandering that impact the balance of power nationally for the decade to come. It's time for Democratic donors to wake up - before it's too late.
Vicky Hausman is the co-founder and co-CEO of Forward Majority, an organization focused on winning power for Democrats in state legislatures to address voter suppression and gerrymandering. Prior to Forward Majority, she was a Partner with Dalberg, where she led the firm's Americas business and Global Health Practice. Vicky started her career as a Peace Corps Volunteer, and was previously a consultant with the Boston Consulting Group.
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Democrats need to spend money to win state houses, not just beat Trump - INSIDER
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