Democrats surge in early voting, but unknowns remain ahead of Tuesday election

Democrats had an impressive weekend in early voting: they will head into Tuesday's election with about a 5 percent turnout advantage over Republicans.

The quick partisan breakdown of early and mail-in ballots: Democrats cast 40,979 votes, Republicans cast 36,432, and voters belonging to "other" parties cast 9,805.

Mayor Alvin Brown's re-election campaign boosted by national Democratic stars and money from the national and state parties is hoping to win outright Tuesday, thus locking up the race without a runoff in the May general election. Winning more than 50 percent of the vote in the first election in which all four mayoral candidates are competing regardless of party is a high bar.

Can the mayor pull off an outright re-election win Tuesday? It would be a stunning win over a well-funded Republican in Lenny Curry, who has locked up endorsements and money from much of Jacksonville's business establishment, local law enforcement, national and state Republicans and many of the city's prominentelected officials.

But the Democrats' strong early-voting push which will benefit their candidates up and down the ballot has turned some heads.

Here are some basic questions to consider before Tuesday's election:

Keep in mind that partisan breakdown of early and mail-in ballots gives us a glimpse into who is getting votes, but it's not an absolute picture.

To that end, is City Councilman Bill Bishop pulling a significant number of Democrats away from Brown? Bishop a Republican who has, at least for Jacksonville politics, staked out a fewprogressive positionsis hoping he does. He'll pull Republicans away from Curry, too. But if Brown hopes to clear 50 percent Tuesday and avoid a runoff with Curry, he needs to bank on Bishop not registering with many Democrats.

Relatedly, is Brown pulling any Republican support? The mayor has made a play to get support from across the aisle. Throughout the campaign, he's tried to position himself as a non-partisan leader who counts Republicans among his friends and political allies. And then there are all those Gov. Rick Scott references.

And perhaps the most obvious, but vexing, question: Who are those 9,805 "other" party voters supporting? This is a frustrating one for everyone.

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Democrats surge in early voting, but unknowns remain ahead of Tuesday election

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