Democrats, tired of GOP control, think they can flip the Iowa …

Which topics dominated this year's legislative session? Here are some of the top issues that defined a tumultuous season at the Iowa Capitol. Michael Zamora, mzamora@dmreg.com

Speaker of the Iowa House of Representatives Linda Upmeyer opens the legislative session Monday, Jan. 8, 2018.(Photo: Zach Boyden-Holmes/The Register)Buy Photo

Iowa Democrats are convinced they canflip the Republican-controlled state House on Nov. 6, with a path to victory running through the suburbs around the states largest cities.

Republicans wave off that idea. In the final weeks before theelection, they're highlightingwhat they see as the strength of their candidates and a winningstrategyfor picking up seats.

"I absolutely never take elections for granted, but I feel really good about this year's crop of candidates," said House Speaker Linda Upmeyer, a Clear Lake Republican. "I feel good about theelection."

In the Des Moines suburb of Ankeny, Democrat Heather Matson is also feeling good. She's spending her days organizing an Iowa House campaign race against Rep. Kevin Koester, an Ankeny Republican whos held his district seat for nearly a decade.

In some ways, Matsons bid for thedistrict is a long shot. She unsuccessfully challenged Koester in 2016, when he won re-election with more than 52 percent of the vote against threecandidates.

Matson thinks 2018 will be different, and not just because Democrats could soon have more registered voters in the district.

Its more of a feeling that voters are overall frustrated with whats going on at the Capitol," she said.

Democrats must secure10new seats to overtake the GOP's 59-membermajority. Even reducing the GOP lead could alsogive the minority party more voting leverageon future legislation.

Democrats say their confidence comes from voter registration shifts inareas some nestled around Des Moines and Cedar Rapids that have been trending blue in recent elections. They're also hopeful an exodus of Republican incumbents will create more competitive races. They note inroads with voter turnout in recent special election races.

The minority party also insists theyre just more riled up.

They gave Donald Trump some of the credit or blame for their energy.

But Democrats also say the Iowa Senate, which Republicans flipped in 2016, has inspired them.

The 2016 election brought a GOP trifecta to the Iowa Legislature the first in nearly two decades.

The Republicans used their power to pass:

JenniferKonfrst, a second-time Democratic candidate seeking an open district seat in the Windsor Heights area outside of Des Moines, said there's a theme emerging from herdoor-knocking.

Some voters I've talked with feel that having one party in control of everything has not been beneficial for the state," she said.

Iowa Democrats have 95 candidates a mix ofincumbents and challengersrunning for seatsin the 100-member chamber, the most in at least 30 years. Republicans will have 78.

Speaker of the House Linda L. Upmeyer gavels in the 2017 session of the 87th General Assembly of the Iowa House of Representatives Monday, Jan. 9, 2017, at the Iowa Statehouse in Des Moines, Iowa. Upmeyer's family health insurance plan costs the state $19,788 a year. She pays $240 a year in premiums.(Photo: Rodney White/The Register)

Iowa Republicans, who have controlled the House since 2011, aren't buying the hype. They noteIowa Democrats failed to flip any special election races after the 2016 election.

Upmeyer said GOP-led policies in Iowa on education, health care andtax cutsgive the party a winning message on the campaign trail. She added that Koester, the Ankeny Republican,and other suburban GOP lawmakers have long succeeded among voters with shiftingparty affiliations. Those same legislators have received more votes than national Republicans like Trump and U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst.

They've worked hard, historically, for their constituents, and I don't think their constituents believe there's any reason to make changes there," Upmeyer said.

Republicans also see the possibility to pad their majority in the House.

That hope runs through districts like the one in Fort Dodge,where longtime Democratic Rep. Helen Miller announced her retirement earlier this year.

Ann Meyer, the Republicancandidate and a longtime nurse, believes she's positioned to win against Democrat and physician Megan Srinivas.Meyer has focused her campaign on health care. Srinivas has also made the issue a central topic of her campaign. Meyer estimates she's knocked on thousands of doors, too.

"I feel like I'm in a good position," she said."I don't feel like I have it wrapped it up, by any means, and I plan to continue to work hard."

Thefuture control ofIowa's statehousehas received some nationalattention, a trend around the country thatprobably won't go away after the 2018 election. Former President Barack Obama has publiclyendorsed a handful of Democratic candidates for state House and Senate in Iowa.

Separately, national Democratic-leaning organizations have announced support for some House and Senate candidates in Iowa. Presidential hopefuls visiting the first-in-the-nationcaucus statehave also scheduled events withstate-level candidates.

It's a pattern that shows the growing political weight of statehouses, saidGreg Shufeldt, an assistant professor of political science at Butler University in Indianapolis. He saidIowa is one of34 states around the country, as of September, where one party has complete a government control. Republicans hold 26of those capitols.

"With increasing gridlock and growing dissatisfaction with the job that Congress is doing, and the level of polarization that we're seeing in Washington, more and more action is happening to the states," Shufeldtsaid."It's increasing the attention that is getting placed onstate government and the battle for control of state legislatures."

In the end, statehouse races could come down to how people feel about Trump. The presidentwon Iowa by roughly 9 percentage points in 2016, after the state had voted for Obama twice. Iowa Republicans have oftenstood behind Trump, even amid a growing trade war that the president has led against China.

LeAnn Hughes, a Republican businesswomantrying to unseat Democratic Rep.Charlie McConkey in a district covering Council Bluffs, says she gets a lot of feedbackabout the presidentwhen she's outdoor-knocking. It's all positive, she said, with a focus on the growing economy and the federal tax cuts.

"The exciting things that the president is getting done right now is one of the things that I hear all the time," she said. "I think it's absolutely going to come down to what the president has accomplished."

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