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If Marylands race for governor had been decided by those who stayed home on Election Day, Lt. Gov. Anthony G. Brown (D) would have been the runaway winner, a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll has found.

The poll, along with newly released state voting data, offers a fuller picture of how Republican Larry Hogan became the governor in such a heavily Democratic state. While GOP turnout was down slightly from four years earlier, Democratic participation fell considerably more. Hogan successfully wooed independents and disaffected white Democrats, while Brown struggled to get voters from his party to the polls and performed less well than hoped among African Americans, a core constituency.

The findings suggest lessons for both parties as they look to the future in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 2 to 1.

To reclaim the governorship in 2018, Democrats will need a candidate with a crisper message who is more capable of motivating the partys base, analysts and strategists say.

For Hogan to win reelection, he must not alienate the Democrats who voted for him a large chunk of whom share his concern about high taxes and spending but disagree with him on other issues.

Hogan has to govern from the center, said Donald F. Norris, director of the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland Baltimore County. Maybe center-right is okay. But he cant govern from the right. ... Hogan can get all the Republican turnout he wants next time and still not win in Maryland. He needs [votes from] Democrats.

In November, 59percent of eligible Republicans voted in the governors race. That was down from 62percent four years earlier, when incumbent Gov. Martin OMalley (D) soundly defeated former governor Robert L Ehrlich Jr. (R).

Democratic turnout, meanwhile, dropped from 55percent to 47percent.

And those who did not vote in November, the poll found, preferred Brown over Hogan 46percent to 35percent.

Thirty-seven percent of white Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents voted for Hogan a key part of his winning constituency. Only 11percent of this group supported Ehrlich for governor in a 2010 pre-election poll.

Original post:
Hogans victory, political future hinge on disaffected Democrats, poll finds