Illinois provides the Democrats with a Midwestern base: The Flyover – cleveland.com
Its the holidays, which means you need something long to read while lounging around the house. Luckily, were taking a break from the news to give you an in-depth look at each of the Flyover states as we head into 2020. With the help of cleveland.com data guru Rich Exner, weve compiled all sorts of facts and figures from the past two elections to really understand whats happening on the ground in our seven states.
Today we head to Illinois. Heres where you can find our write-ups about Indiana, Wisconsin and Ohio.
The largest of the Flyover states, Illinois also happens to be one of the largest Democratic strongholds in the country. The home state of former President Barack Obama is bolstered by Chicago, the third largest metro area in the country.
Considering the term Chicago politics is now an epithet against Democratic machine politics, its pretty safe to say that you can put this one in the D column for 2020. The state hasnt voted for a Republican for president since George H.W. Bush in 1988 (though notably voted for Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984 as well). Democrats control all branches of state government, including supermajorities in both the state House and Senate.
Its not just voting trends, either. Chicago has served as a sort of Midwest epicenter for the anti-President Donald Trump movement. It was in Chicago that Trump was forced to shut down a rally after protesters shouted him off stage. And its no wonder why. Perhaps no city in America is Trumps favorite punching bag more than Chicago a feud that likely started over his downtown hotel there.
Oh, and you cant forget the corruption, including a sweeping probe going on right now. Former Gov. Rod Blagojevich, a Democrat, is currently sitting in prison possibly awaiting a Trump pardon. Former Gov. George Ryan, a Republican and Blagojevichs predecessor, got out of prison in 2013.
Nevertheless, the state is often much more competitive than people give it credit for. Since 1990, three of the last six governors have been Republicans, though the latest only served one term. In the 2020 elections, the importance of Illinois actually lies in several of its congressional districts, which could play a key part in determining who wins the House.
Illinois is the largest of all the Flyover states, but is also the only one that has shrunk since 2012, meaning it will almost certainly lose a congressional seat after redistricting in 2020.
The full set of data can be found here.
2010: 12,830,602
2012: 12,884,119
2016: 12,826,195
2018: 12,741,080
Net change: -89,552
Net change in Flyover states: 724,790
U.S. change: 18,421,896
Percentage change: -0.70%
Flyover percentage: 1.17%
U.S. percentage: 5.97%
Voting age citizens 2012: 8,934,979
Voting age citizens 2016: 9,038,458
Voting age citizens 2018: 9,074,766
Net change: 139,787
Flyover change: 950,932
U.S. change: 13,557,146
Percentage change: 1.56%
Flyover percentage: 2.07%
U.S. change: 6.16%
Illinois is the most diverse of the Flyover states, largely anchored by Chicago. It is the only Flyover state that closely resembles the United States as a whole, demographically speaking. In fact, it is slightly more diverse than the U.S. overall.
The full set of data can be found here.
White: 71.7%
Flyover median: 81.0%
U.S.: 72.2%
Black: 14.1%
Flyover median: 11.2%
U.S.: 12.7%
Asian: 5.6%
Flyover median: 2.8%
U.S.: 5.6%
Other or multi-race: 8.6%
Flyover median: 5.2%
U.S.: 9.5%
Hispanic: 17.3%
Flyover median: 6.9%
U.S.: 18.3%
Foreign Born: 14.1%
Flyover median: 5.5%
U.S.: 13.7%
Median age: 38.3
Flyover median: 39.5
U.S. median: 38.2
Illinois is far and away the most educated of the Flyover states. It has a higher rate of high school graduation, bachelors degrees and professional degrees for residents aged 25 and up than the country as a whole. It also has, by far, the highest median family income of Flyover states.
The full set of data can be found here.
High school degree or higher (25+): 89.5%
Flyover median: 91%
United States: 88.3%
Bachelors or higher (25+): 35.1%
Flyover median: 29.6%
United States: 32.6%
Graduate or professional degree (25+): 14.0%
Flyover median: 11.1%
United States: 12.6%
Median family income: $81,313
Flyover median: $76,068
United States: $76,401
When we decided to put together this list, we wanted to look at the jobs and unemployment figures around the time of the presidential election. Illinois was hit harder during the recession, with unemployment climbing to the highest of any Flyover state and higher than the U.S. unemployment rate. Its recovery was also slower, in terms of job growth, from 2013-2017. But since 2017, Illinois has outpaced its neighbors in terms of job growth.
The full set of data can be found here.
Jan. 2013 jobs: 5,782,000
Jan. 2017 jobs: 6,043,000
Oct. 2019 jobs: 6,192,300
2013-2017 change: 261,000
Illinois percentage change: 4.5%
Flyover percentage change: 5%
U.S. percentage change: 7.7%
2017-2019 change: 149,300
Illinois percentage change: 2.5%
Flyover percentage change: 1.9%
U.S. percentage change: 4.3%
Jan. 2013 unemployment: 9.2%
Flyover median: 7.9%
U.S. rate: 8%
Jan. 2017 unemployment: 5.3% (-3.9)
Flyover median: 4.9
U.S. rate: 4.7% (-3.3)
Oct. 2019 unemployment: 3.9% (-1.4)
Flyover median: 3.9%
U.S. rate: 3.9% (-0.8)
As I said at the top of this edition, Democrats have a stranglehold on Illinois state government. Led by House Speaker Michael Madigan, they have supermajorities in both chambers. Now-Gov. J.B. Pritzker, a Democrat and one of the richest men in the state, ousted former Gov. Bruce Rauner, a Republican and also one of the richest men in the state, in 2018. Democrats hold the rest of the statewide offices as well, though with more ebb and flow between parties in the past decade.
Sens. Dick Durbin and Tammy Duckworth, both Democrats, represent the state in the U.S. Senate. Durbin is Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumers top deputy. The 18 members of Congress are split 13-5 in favor of Democrats, largely due to heavy partisan gerrymandering. Illinois is also home to Rep. Cheri Bustos, head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
President Barack Obama easily won the state in 2012 by 884,000 votes. Illinois was the only Flyover state where Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in 2016, which she did by a 944,000-vote margin.
Democrats have won the U.S. House vote every year since 2012 by anywhere from 100,000 to 500,000 votes, though the delegation has fluctuated. However, in 2018 the blue wave overtook much of the state, with Democrats winning the U.S. House vote by more than 1,000,000 votes, picking up two seats in the process.
The full set of data can be found here.
2012 presidential election margin: D, 884,296
Flyover: D, 1,847,011
U.S.: D, 4,982,291
2016 presidential election margin: D, 944,714
Flyover: R, 251,345
U.S.: D, 2,868,686
2012 Illinois congressional vote margin: D, 535,884
Flyover: D, 539,951
Continue reading here:
Illinois provides the Democrats with a Midwestern base: The Flyover - cleveland.com
- Democrats Lost Them: Heres Why 2020 Biden Voters Sat Out The 2024 Election - Rolling Stone - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Opinion | Have the Democrats found their version of Trump? - The Washington Post - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- These Sick Criminals Are Who Democrats and the Legacy Media Are Defending - The White House (.gov) - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Obama, Healey, more Democrats praise Harvard for rejecting Trump administration's demands - Fall River Herald News - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Lawsuit alleging fraud could leave Democrats with no candidate in Onondaga Countys 9th District - Syracuse.com - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Scoop: Top House Democrats are trying to send a delegation to El Salvador - Axios - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- WA Democrats propose 5 new tax bills on Tax Dayand theyre coming for the big dogs - MyNorthwest.com - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Democrats dislike the chaos of Trumps trade war but are OK with some tariffs - AP News - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Democrats Get an Unconventional Candidate in the Race Against Joni Ernst - notus.org - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Democrats newest villain is a power player youve never heard of - Politico - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Washington Senate Democrats amend 'Parents Bill of Rights' - MyNorthwest.com - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Never had an auditor do something like this. Diana DiZoglio fights, polarizes her fellow Democrats. - The Boston Globe - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- New books chart Bidens downfall and the picture is damning for Democrats - The Guardian - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Democrats accuse GOP senators of affirmative action for Iowa med school - Iowa Capital Dispatch - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Rep. Josh Harder on why Democrats should be angrier at the status quo - Roll Call - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Republicans Less Trusted on Economy Than Democrats For First Time in Years - Newsweek - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- Trump rode to victory on the economy. Democrats see a way to flip that on its head. - Politico - April 16th, 2025 [April 16th, 2025]
- The Next Generation of Democrats Dont Plan to Wait Their Turn - The New York Times - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Live updates: Democrats seize on volatility of Trump trade policies - The Washington Post - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- The middle is disappearing: Why three dealmaking Senate Democrats are heading for the exits - CNN - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Democrats problem isnt just messaging its the electoral math | David Daley - The Guardian - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- The House: Democrats Favored on What Starts as a Small Battlefield - Sabato's Crystal Ball - Center For Politics - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Four Democrats join Republicans to pass SAVE Act bill that requires proof of citizenship to vote - The Independent - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Democrats running for California governor take digs at Kamala Harris' delayed decision on the race - Los Angeles Times - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Democrats Grill Officials on Insider Profits From Trumps Tariff Reversal - Mother Jones - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- The Early Signs These Democrats Are Running For President in 2028 - The Daily Beast - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- House Republicans and Democrats say the US must maintain its troop totals in Europe - AP News - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Democrats look to force Republicans to choose between backing Trump or lessening tariff pain - CNN - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- The Democrats Wont Acknowledge the Scale of Trumps Tariff Mess - The Atlantic - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Democrats reveal their top targets to flip in 2026 - Politico - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Opinion | Democrats Can Be the Party That Wants to Make Americans Rich - The New York Times - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Virginia elections will test the backlash against Musk and Democrats are ready with a plan - The Guardian - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Democrats wrestle with how hard to swing away from tariffs - Semafor - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- With protests and action, Democrats just had their best week since Election Day - MSNBC News - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Opinion | Another Group the Democrats Should Stop Taking for Granted - The New York Times - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Democrats Shouting 'Insider Trading!' After Trump's Tariff Pivot Need To Sit This One Out For Obvious Reasons - OutKick - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Democrats Had a Messaging Problem. Trump Just Solved It for Them. - New York Magazine - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Banking Democrats Call on Chairman Scott to Hold Hearing on Trumps Disastrous Use of Emergency Powers to Impose Tariffs and Cause Chaos for American... - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Democrats look to make a play for GOP turf with surge of new candidates - Politico - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- AIPAC attacks Democrats who voted to stop arms sales to Israel - The Forward - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Elon Musk Helped Democrats Get Their Act Together, But What If He Goes Away? - HuffPost - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Oregon Democrats unveil ambitious road funding proposal. Now the haggling begins - Oregon Public Broadcasting - OPB - April 10th, 2025 [April 10th, 2025]
- Bernie Sanders is drawing record crowds as he pushes Democrats to 'fight oligarchy' - NPR - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- The Democrats' 10 theories driving the party's crisis - Axios - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Democrats Are Taking Their Anger Out on Chuck Schumer - The Wall Street Journal - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Column | Democrats confront the wrath of their voters, just as Republicans have - The Washington Post - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- We Dug Into the Polls. Democrats in Congress Should Be Very Afraid. - POLITICO - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Democrats US tour gathers support in fight against Trump: Get angry, man - The Guardian US - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- The Democrats Are Losing the Social Media Wars. This Young Socialist Is Changing That. - POLITICO - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Democrats clashed over their shutdown strategy. But the party's identity crisis runs far deeper - The Associated Press - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Harris dominates in new poll on who Democrats would back in 2028 - with AOC in third - The Independent - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- With Democrats in disarray and Trump on the attack, many ask what is the way forward - Colorado Public Radio - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- They hate us: Democrats now fear midterms could result in their ouster as voters want candidates to take on Trump - Yahoo - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Opinion | The Last Thing Democrats Need Is Their Own Tea Party - The New York Times - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Democrats feel the heat at town halls, too: From the Politics Desk - NBC News - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- I wish youd be angry. California Democrats face voter fury over Trump, Elon Musk - Los Angeles Times - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- The spending bill fight split Democrats. 2 strategists offer takes on party's future - NPR - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Amid Schumer Backlash, Heres Whos Vying to Lead Democrats - TIME - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Politics have changed but the Democrats havent they are old and out of touch | Moira Donegan - The Guardian - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Democrats are desperately searching for new leaders. AOC is stepping into the void. - NBC News - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- California Democrats are in control. So why are they worried? - POLITICO - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on Democrats clashing over how to govern in the minority - PBS NewsHour - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Democrats Internal Battle Isnt Over Ideology, but How Hard to Fight Trump - The New York Times - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- White House political chief warns the GOP: Democrats are running angry - POLITICO - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- 'We have questions': Mass. residents flood congressional Democrats' town halls, calling for action - WBUR News - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Bill Maher warns that Democrats are 'gonna be the Whigs' if they don't fix this big problem - Yahoo News - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Democrats are failing to meet the moment amid Trumps unconstitutional power grab - MSNBC - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Democrats host town hall meetings in GOP districts throughout the Tampa Bay area - WFLA - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Democrats are angry, disillusioned over failure to stand up to Trump and Musk - The Washington Post - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Trump appeals rulings that blocked his firings of Democrats on independent federal boards - Government Executive - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Video: Opinion | Democrats Need to Face Why Trump Won - The New York Times - March 22nd, 2025 [March 22nd, 2025]
- Democrats are reeling. Is Stephen A Smith the way back to the White House? - The Guardian US - March 9th, 2025 [March 9th, 2025]
- Democrats Turn to Sports Radio and Podcasts to Try to Reach Young Men - The New York Times - March 9th, 2025 [March 9th, 2025]
- Progressive activists have an agenda for resisting Trump. Will Democrats follow it? - USA TODAY - March 9th, 2025 [March 9th, 2025]
- Walz, reflecting on 2024 race, says Democrats played it too safe - The Washington Post - March 9th, 2025 [March 9th, 2025]
- The 10 Democrats who voted to censure Rep. Al Green are misreading the moment - MSNBC - March 9th, 2025 [March 9th, 2025]
- House Republicans unveil bill to avoid shutdown and they're daring Democrats to oppose it - CNBC - March 9th, 2025 [March 9th, 2025]
- I was dumbfounded by Democrats' response to Trump's speech. They are in denial. | Opinion - Detroit Free Press - March 9th, 2025 [March 9th, 2025]
- House Republicans unveil bill to avoid shutdown and theyre daring Democrats to oppose it - The Associated Press - March 9th, 2025 [March 9th, 2025]
- Can democrats find their way out of the wilderness? - NPR - March 9th, 2025 [March 9th, 2025]