The Democrats’ demographic dilemma – The Boston Globe
If no man is an island, no political party should be an archipelago. Such are the Democrats blue islands in a sea of red.
True, an America becoming younger, better educated, and less white trends Democratic. Thus Democrats have carried the popular vote in six of the last seven presidential elections, an unprecedented run. But 2016 confirmed that demography writ large does not decree success.
Advertisement
Young people, for example, are often unengaged. Voter suppression laws target minorities and the poor. Above all, political polarization and demographic sorting control the electoral map.
Most obvious is the electoral college. Hillary Clintons 3 million-vote edge was erased by a cluster of less educated whites in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But the preponderance of red states over blue also affects the Senate, where Idaho and California each elect two senators.
Get This Week in Opinion in your inbox:
Globe Opinion's must-reads, delivered to you every Sunday.
As for the House, this advantage permits state legislatures two thirds of which are controlled by the GOP to draw congressional districts that tilt Republican. Half those states also have Republican governors; Democrats enjoy this hammerlock in only six. The result? A GOP that won half the votes cast in congressional elections claimed 55 percent of the seats.
But this demographic divide goes deeper. As Paul Taylor shows in his seminal book The Next America, we are increasingly sorted into think-alike communities defined by ethnicity, education, and economic status. And so geography mirrors demography.
Clintons 3 million-vote edge came from but 420 of our 3,100 counties. The space between is best measured by economics. The 16 percent of counties supporting Clinton accounted for 65 percent of our GNP, and their median home price was 60 percent higher than in counties carried by Trump.
Advertisement
These economically ascendant counties, largely urban, are geographically isolated. Hence the archipelago islands of the relatively privileged surrounded by what is, to them, a mare incognitum, in which the less educated and more aggrieved dog paddle to survive.
One recalls the film critic Pauline Kael, who wondered aloud how George McGovern lost when everyone she knew had voted for him. However silly, Kaels observation was a precursor of the wasted vote phenomenon, wherein Democrats roll up huge margins in blue enclaves, only to be thwarted by the tripartite menace of the electoral map, gerrymandering, and demographic sorting.
But this social chasm is graver than elections can measure. As Taylor writes, the GOP skews older, whiter, more religious and more conservative, with a base that is struggling to come to grips with the new racial tapestries, gender norms, and family constellations. By contrast, Democrats tend to be younger, more nonwhite, more liberal, more secular, and more immigrant and LGBT-friendly, prepared to welcome diversity. Alienation follows.
The result, Taylor explains, is that 92 percent of Republicans are to the right of the median Democrat in their core social, economic, and political views, while 94 percent of Democrats are to the left of the median Republican. Moreover, he adds, two-thirds of consistent conservatives and half of consistent liberals say most of their close friends share their political views. Easier to do, he notes, when liberals prefer cities to the small towns and rural areas favored by conservatives.
Our growing economic disparity also aggravates what one could call a despair gap. As reported in The New York Times, a study by the Center for American Progress found a direct correlation between the percentage of underwater homes and counties that voted for Trump. Similarly, a sociology professor at Penn State found that Trump fared better in counties where the mortality rates caused by drugs, alcohol, and suicide were highest. Among many other things, some poisonous, what issued from Trumps America was a desperate and angry cry for help.
The grievous truth is that ever more Americans fear other Americans, whose lives they can no longer imagine, save as the enemies of all they hold dear. And partisan media and social media purveyors of alternative facts fortify these gated communities of the mind.
The GOP must preserve them, lest their residents notice that Trumps populism of false promises and racial animus masks its service to the wealthy. The Democrats road is infinitely harder but potentially more unifying than merely firing up their subgroups while scaring seniors about entitlements. The party must become a credible force for betterment in the lives and minds of more Americans, no matter who or where. Only then will we learn whether politics can help restore a country so fractured and embittered.
Read more:
The Democrats' demographic dilemma - The Boston Globe
- D.C. U.S. attorney probing Democrats over alleged threats, documents show - The Washington Post - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Democrats face pressure to fight Trump agenda, but have limited power in the minority - NPR - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Democrats need to use spending battle to control Trump, Tammy Baldwin says - POLITICO - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Democrats in Congress Lack Trust From Their Own Voters: Poll - Newsweek - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Democrats Announce Plan To Increase Special Education Funding By $40M - CT News Junkie - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- The Interview: Senator Ruben Gallego on the Democrats Problem - The New York Times - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Rep. Alma Adams says Democrats are challenging the Trump administration on several fronts - WFAE - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Republicans are teeing up the next big immigration test for nervous Democrats. Activist groups are watching. - POLITICO - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Democrats Fear They Are Missing the Moment to Remake the Party - The New York Times - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Florida Democrats file bill to repeal six-week abortion ban - WCTV - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Idaho Democrats criticize GOP over Medicaid and education bills - Idaho News - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- The more Democrats fight, the more they'll lose: Former Speaker McCarthy - Fox News - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Senator Warner: Democrats brand is really bad - POLITICO Europe - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Column: Democrats belatedly wake up to start battling Trump and Musk - Los Angeles Times - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- What to expect as Republicans and Democrats meet in Detroit this weekend to select new party chairs - Michigan Advance - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Opinion | Why I still criticize Democrats more than Trump - The Washington Post - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Democrats intend to rapidly pass $40 million spending package to fund special education programs - WTNH.com - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Michael Cohen warns Democrats that Trump 'already owns the libs' and that attacking him 'doesn't work' - Fox News - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- What can Democrats do about Trump and Musk's policy blitz? Here's what Washington lawmakers say - The Spokesman Review - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Gov. Hochul Meeting With Top Democrats About "The Path Forward" For New York City - Legislative Gazette - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Democrats call out Trump actions on Tesla, Musk - The Hill - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- This Small Rust-Belt City Holds the Secret to Democrats Latino Woes - The New Republic - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Democrats Swear Theyll Fight Elon Musk. But What About the Cash They Took From SpaceX? - The Intercept - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- More Democrats Favor Party Moderation Than in Past - Gallup.com - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- What is WAs parental bill of rights? And how are Democrats seeking to change it? - Washington State Standard - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Will an Allegheny County property tax hike haunt Democrats running for County Council? - 90.5 WESA - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- RFK Jr. confirmed as Trump's health secretary, over Democrats' loud objections - NPR - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- As Trump steamrolls Washington, Democrats search for a strategy and a voice - The Christian Science Monitor - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Strategic Vision's 2025 Most Loved Vehicle Awards: Republicans and Democrats Choose EVs as their Most Loved Vehicle, and It's Not Tesla - Business... - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- New to the Senate, Gallego challenges Democrats' views on 'working-class Latinos' - NPR - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Republicans think economy will improve over the next year, Democrats expect it to get worse - Pew Research Center - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Democrats rage against DOGE but shouldnt everyone be against waste? - The Hill - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Democrats unveil state legislative map for the next election cycle, with eyes on opposing Trump's agenda and redistricting - NBC News - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- FLORIDA DEMOCRATS RESPOND TO PASSAGE OF IMMIGRATION BILLS - Florida Democratic Party - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Letter From House Democrats on Justice Department Officials - The New York Times - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Democrats call Musk and DOGE 'evil.' But Trump is doing what Americans want. | Opinion - USA TODAY - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Opinion | Why Democrats Fail the Immigration Test Every Time - The New York Times - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Democrats are divided on government shutdown threats - POLITICO - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- "People are pissed": Inside Democrats' growing tension with their grassroots allies - Axios - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Latinos Bolted to the Right in 2024. Can Democrats Win Them Back? - The New York Times - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Aguilar says Democrats would oppose spending bill with Department of Education cuts - NBC News - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Democrats Need Judges to Rein In Trump. Theres No Plan B. - TIME - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Full List of Republicans, Democrats Who Voted Against RFK Jr.'s Nomination - Newsweek - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Democrats target Musk in first DOGE hearing on war on waste - NewsNation Now - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Opinion | Democrats Stand Up for the Bureaucrats Against DOGE - The Wall Street Journal - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- House Democrats warn Energy Department against canceling approved loans - The Hill - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Increasing numbers of Democrats want their party to oppose Trump CBS News poll analysis - CBS News - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Can Hakeem Jeffries be the leader the Democrats want? - The Independent - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Democrats Hint at Government Shutdown to Stop Trumps Axing at Federal Agencies - The New York Times - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Adams Asks for Voters Trust as Democrats Argue He Is in Thrall to Trump - The New York Times - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Conservatives clinch longtime goal of booting Democrats from leadership ranks in Texas House - The Texas Tribune - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Chapo Trap House Isnt Going to Save the Democrats - Vanity Fair - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Omar: Democrats attending Trumps inauguration sends the wrong message - The Hill - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Texas Democrats haven't been in power for 30 years. They just lost more control at the Capitol. - KUT - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- House Democrats, Secretary of State are suing House GOP lawmakers. Heres what you need to know. - Minnesota Reformer - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- GOP Threatens Weekend Work as Democrats Test Resolve on Nominees - Bloomberg Government - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Democrats Need a Bigger Tent on Abortion - Bloomberg - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Senate Republicans refuse to work with Democrats on immigration bill - MSNBC - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump axes Democrats on intelligence and privacy oversight board - Nextgov/FCW - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- GOP leaders mull a big debt-and-funding deal with Democrats - POLITICO - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Democrats struggle to pick their message against Trumps shock-and-awe campaign - The Associated Press - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Why Democrats are still in charge of the CFPB and OCC - American Banker - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump to visit battered North Carolina towns still suffering months after Helene: 'Treated badly by Democrats' - Fox News - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump admin tells all Democrats on intelligence oversight board to resign - The Record from Recorded Future News - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Rantz: WA Democrats pulled a fast one on voters as they undo parental rights initiative - MyNorthwest - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Diminished Democrats grit their teeth through second Trump inauguration - The Washington Post - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump: We have to get Democrats to approve tax cuts - The Hill - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- NEW: Donald Trump Rolls Back Biden-Harris Rule to Lower Drug Costs for Millions of Americans - Democrats.org - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- DEI is on Trump's chopping block. See how Democrats are fighting back. - USA TODAY - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Biden tries to lift Democrats' spirits on last full day in office - Reuters - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump ejects Democrats from intelligence-and-privacy oversight board - Defense One - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Note to Wisconsin Democrats: Cut the gas tax - Isthmus - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- WA Democrats push for gun permits, safe storage and limit on bulk buys - The Seattle Times - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- 2028 Watch: Here are the Democrats who may eventually jump into the next White House race - Fox News - January 1st, 2025 [January 1st, 2025]
- Democrats Battleground Leader, Exiting Congress, Reflects on What She Learned - The New York Times - January 1st, 2025 [January 1st, 2025]
- The Democrats and Republicans Best Positioned Right Now for 2028 - POLITICO - January 1st, 2025 [January 1st, 2025]
- Democrats Brace for Mass Deportations in Sanctuary Cities As Trump's Agenda Beckons - Newsweek - January 1st, 2025 [January 1st, 2025]
- Democrats face criticism that their party lost touch with working-class voters - KUOW News and Information - January 1st, 2025 [January 1st, 2025]
- Senate Democrats to focus on economic issues and distributing opioid settlements funds - KGAN TV - January 1st, 2025 [January 1st, 2025]
- Top Beacon Hill Democrats blast local press for persistent negative media narrative - Boston Herald - January 1st, 2025 [January 1st, 2025]