The Fix: This poll is very good news for Senate Democrats
Former Ohio governor Ted Strickland is ahead of Sen. Rob Portman (R) by nine points in a new Quinnipiac University poll out today, a result that has to make Democrats eyeing the possibility of retaking the Senate in 2016 very, very happy.
Strickland stands at 48 percent to 39 percent for Portman, who, after stints in the House and the Bush administration, is in the midst of his first Senate term. Strickland's lead is built almost exclusively on an 18-point edge over Portman among independents although he also wins a larger portion of self-identified Democrats (85 percent) than Portman does among Republicans (79 percent).
Why is this poll such good news for Democrats? Because it makes clear that Ohio is very much in play with Strickland as their nominee (the former governor still faces a primary from Cincinnati City Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld). That makes the 2016 playing field a seat bigger, giving Democrats more margin for error as they try to win back the four (if a Democrat wins the White House) or five (if he/she but really she doesn't) seats they need to reclaim the majority.
As I wrote in a Senate analysis back in February:
Yes, Republicans such as Sen. Mark Kirk (Ill.) and Sen. Ron Johnson (Wis.) are in a tenuous position to win second terms. But beyond that, there are no races that today you would call 50-50. Sure, Pennsylvania is a Democratic state, but Sen. Patrick J. Toomey is an able candidate, andDemocrats are down on the prospect of a rerun from former congressman Joe Sestak. Sens. Kelly Ayotte (N.H.), Roy Blunt (Mo.), Rob Portman (Ohio), Marco Rubio (Fla.) and Richard Burr (N.C.) are all relatively young and have faced real races in the not-too-distant past. Yes, they sit in swing (or Democratic-leaning) states, but none of them are underdogs (or even close) yet.
Now, this is ONE poll and the first one from a credible organization we've seen in this race. Do I think Portman, one of the most able politicians in the Senate, is going to lose to Strickland by nine points? I don't. In fact, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the Portman folks leaked out some of their own internal poll numbers showing the senator in much stronger shape in the next few days. For what it's worth, here's what Portman campaign manager Corry Bliss had to say about the poll: This poll shows one thing and one thing only, Ohio is doing so much better since Ted Strickland left office that people forgot what an awful governor he was."
But, the combination of the ballot test, Strickland's terrific favorable/unfavorable ratings (49 percent favorable/29 percent unfavorable) and the relative anonymity of Portman (44 percent haven't heard enough about him to offer an opinion) suggest that this is a very real race.
That's a win and a big one this early in the election cycle for Democrats.
Chris Cillizza writes The Fix, a politics blog for the Washington Post. He also covers the White House.
Continue reading 10 minutes left
See the original post here:
The Fix: This poll is very good news for Senate Democrats
- Column | Its called the six-year itch. Democrats hope it favors them for the Senate. - The Washington Post - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Senate Democrats are investigating the Kennedy Center for 'cronyism, corruption' - NPR - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Donald Trump Aghast at Sedition Democrats on TVShould Be in Jail - Newsweek - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Trump says he wasn't threatening Democrats he accused of 'seditious behavior, punishable by death' - NBC News - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Trump accuses Democrats of 'sedition' but the law disagrees - CNN - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Trump says he was 'not threatening death' to Democrats over video to troops - BBC - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Trump urges prison for Democrats who called on army to ignore illegal orders - The Times of Israel - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Democrats defend message to troops as Trump, officials suggest they be punished - ABC News - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Republicans and Democrats agree U.S. health care costs too much. Will they do anything about it? - The Spokesman-Review - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- First Thing: Outrage after Trump accuses Democrats of seditious behavior, punishable by death - The Guardian - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Democrats file police complaints over Trumps posts accusing them of sedition - Politico - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- After Prop. 50, San Diego may lose its only Republican in Congress as Democrats target Issa - CalMatters - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Democrats just won back voters whod embraced Trump. Will they stick around? - The Boston Globe - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Trump Accuses Democrats of Sedition, Punishable by Death, Over Message to the Military - The New York Times - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Democrats seek police action on Trumps threatening social media posts - The Washington Post - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Have Democrats Lost Voters Trust on Education? Not According to Most Polls - The 74 - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Democrats try again to reestablish legal deference to agencies on regulations - Government Executive - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Its called the six-year itch. Democrats hope it favors them for the Senate. - MSN - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Democrats and Republicans react to Trump's "seditious behavior" post after video emerges - CBS News - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Opinion | Trump Says the Epstein Documents Will Hurt Democrats, Too. Maybe Thats a Good Thing. - The New York Times - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Mark Mellman, 70, Dies; Helped Democrats Understand Their Voters - The New York Times - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- In Red Tennessee, Democrats Dream of the Unlikeliest of Upsets - The New York Times - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Why Democrats are warning about illegal orders to the military - Straight Arrow News - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Democrats threatened after Trumps seditious behavior comment - NewsNation - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- White House walks back Trumps suggestion of executing Democrats, stands by piggy insult to reporter live - The Guardian - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- Democrats Finally Realize It Isnt 2016 Anymore - The Atlantic - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- I was right about the pathetic Democrats. And most Americans agree with me. | Opinion - USA Today - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- Trump calls Goodlander and other Democrats 'traitors' for urging military to defy 'illegal orders' - New Hampshire Public Radio - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- Democrats facing ethics complaints for Vail retreat will receive taxpayer-funded legal counsel - The Colorado Sun - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- This poll number hasnt been so favorable for Democrats since before the last blue wave - PBS - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- New poll reveals signs of hope for Democrats and red flags for Republicans - PBS - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- Donald Trump said Democrats call to military amounts to sedition. Experts say thats doubtful - PolitiFact - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- Poll: Democrats have biggest advantage for control of Congress in 8 years - NPR - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- In Tennessee, Democrats hope a coalition of the pissed off will flip a red district - The Guardian - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- Trump accuses Democrats of seditious behavior over video telling military to refuse illegal orders - CBS News - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- Details on Trump threat aimed at Democrats over video telling military to refuse "illegal orders" - CBS News - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- Cassidy pushes his Obamacare plan. Democrats arent biting. - Politico - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- White House responds to condemnation for Trump post accusing Democrats of seditious behavior - CBS News - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- Trump Says PSA from 6 Democrats Is 'Punishable by Death' and Reposts Call to 'Hang Them' - People.com - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- Democrats are going to come to regret this: After Epstein vote, Trump ready to attack - Politico - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- Arizona senator weighs in on what he thinks Democrats should do to win in 2026 - Yahoo - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- Trump accuses Slotkin, other Democrats of 'seditious behavior, punishable by death' - The Detroit News - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- Poll: Frustration with Trump gives Democrats an opening a year before the midterms - NBC News - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Democrats are winning the shutdown politics. Can they stop now? - CNN - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Trump says government shutdown ends when Democrats give in: "If they don't vote, that's their problem" - CBS News - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Abigail Spanberger Thinks That Democrats Need to Listen More - The New Yorker - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- 'I don't look at this as politics': Kaine pressed on what Democrats have gained from shutdown - ABC News - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Sen. Fetterman: 'Democrats really need to own the shutdown. I mean, we're shutting it down' - CNN - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- LEADER JEFFRIES ON CNN: WHY HAS DONALD TRUMP SPENT MORE TIMEON THE GOLF COURSE THAN HE HAS IN TALKING TO DEMOCRATS? Congressman Hakeem Jeffries -... - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- The Super PAC Trying to Free Democrats From the Cult of the Quants - Politico - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Trump Is the Democrats Best Campaigner - Politico - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Democrats Running for Governor Stick to a Familiar Theme: Fight Trump - The New York Times - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- As Barack Obama stumps for other Democrats, the party gets to see what it lost - The Guardian - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Democrats must not cave in to Donald Trump - The Guardian - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Briahna Joy Gray: Is Zohran Mamdani the future of the Democrats? - Al Jazeera - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Democrats should be taking the fight to Trump the problem is, hes got them battling each other | Jonathan Freedland - The Guardian - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Democrats are losing pride in America and thats a problem for BOTH - New York Post - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- The Democrats vision quest is complete They have the white papers to show for it - UnHerd - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Article | Democrats are searching for their next leader. But they still have Obama. - POLITICO Pro - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- They Dread Trump But Cant Stop Fighting Each Other: Meet the Democrats - The Bulwark - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- White House hopefuls hit the 2025 campaign trail as Democrats try to turn the page - USA Today - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Democrats are being blamed by their own side for the shutdown. - facebook.com - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Democrats feared Republican efforts to oust Pa. Supreme Court justices. They spent significantly more on the race - TribLIVE.com - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Democrats unflinching in shutdown strategy, blaming Trump with millions at risk of losing food aid - CNN - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- These Two Democrats Were Runaway Favorites. They Havent Sealed the Deal. - The Wall Street Journal - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- Democrats get aggressive on remapping congressional lines - Politico - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- Bookman: Democrats have a chance to flip governor's seat in Georgia, with the right candidate - Georgia Recorder - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- Democrats on the Graham Platner controversy - WHYY - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- Democrats dig into Army Corps project funding freezes - E&E News by POLITICO - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- Democrats move forward with new 2028 calendar - Politico - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- Democrats plan to sue over food aid as GOP splits on legislative patch - Politico - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- A democratic socialist is poised to become New York mayor. Democrats are nervous. - The Washington Post - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- Hundreds of People With Top Secret Clearance Exposed by House Democrats Website - WIRED - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- How Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill hope to redefine Democrats in Virginia and NJ - USA Today - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- Democrats Just Lost a Key Ally in the Shutdown Fight - New York Magazine - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- As Democrats begin to set 2028 primary calendar, NH readies its case to lead off - New Hampshire Public Radio - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- Top Democrats hit with brutal wake-up call on quest to take on Trump: Better listen - NJ.com - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- Virginia Democrats are set to join the redistricting war. Their candidate for governor is staying out of it - CNN - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- AFGE, largest federal workers' union, calls for end to shutdown, putting pressure on Democrats - NBC News - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- If Democrats want to win, they need to start driving in the middle lane - The Hill - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]