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The draft text of permitting reform expands the scope of categorical exclusions that are regularly applied to oil and gas projectsincluding BPs Deepwater Horizon rigin a way that could include more clean energy projects and level the playing field.

Many advocates are leery of categorical exclusions writ large. A more careful analysis also isnt necessarily a slower one. Analyzing 41,000 NEPA decisions completed by the U.S. Forest Service between 2004 and 2020, legal scholars John C. Ruple, Jamie Pleune, and Erik Heiny found that delays associated with the law are owed to inadequate staffing, insufficient funding, and time spent on interagency coordination, not a delay in permitting. Contrary to widely held assumptions, they write, we found that a less rigorous level of analysis often fails to deliver faster decisions. As Aaron Gordon reported recently for Vice, the agencies that handle such decisions are chronically understaffed, with many now adding a growing number of climate disasters to already full plates. According to the most recent draft on offer, this version of permitting reform wouldnt give regulators more resources to do their jobs; it would require them to do them more quickly. Forty years of bludgeoning state capacity has not made it more efficient. The gamble proposed by proponents of the side deal is that now it will.

Neither is the bill a panacea for local opposition; locals seeking to block a project can lean on any number of local, state, and federal provisions to keep stuff from getting built. Theres no way around getting the backing of politically powerful players where you want to get a project through, Earthjustice director Abigail Dillan told me. Decarbonizing the U.S. economy, that isan awe-inspiring taskwill require a certain amount of democratic consent.

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Why Resolving Democrats' Internal War on Climate Policy Will Be Hard - The New Republic