Mediaboss Marketing

Ad will collapse in seconds CLOSE May 5, 2017 05/05/2017 4:38 pm By Ed Kilgore Share Young voters dont like Donald Trump, his party, or his policies. But they also dont like voting in non-presidential elections. Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

The darkest cloud threatening what should be a sunny Democratic Election Day in 2018 is the donkey partys recent dependence on elements of the electorate minorities and millennials who tend to be a smaller share of the electorate in non-presidential elections. Democrats midterm falloff problem is sometimes misdiagnosed as an enthusiasm issue: While enthusiasm can matter significantly on the margins, the bigger problem is simply that younger and minority voters have never participated in midterms as much as their older and whiter counterparts, and they now play a bigger role in the Democratic coalition than ever. This heavy dependence on falloff voters is pretty recent in its intensity: Last time Democrats won back the House from Republicans, in 2006, they carried the senior vote. That is almost certainly not going to happen in 2018.

So as Ron Brownstein explains, one part of the 2018 puzzle for Democrats is taking advantage of millennial antipathy to Donald Trump to get these most falloff-prone of voters to show up at the polls:

Polls have also found that over three-fourths of Millennials oppose both Trumps Mexico border wall and his push to repeal Obamas climate-change agenda. Eliminating funding for Planned Parenthood, cutting taxes for top earners, barring Syrian refugeeseach Trump prioritiesall face preponderant Millennial opposition in surveys.

More to the point, early congressional generic balloting shows millennials demonstrating the kind of Democratic preference the party needs, assuming they can get these voters to the polls:

Eventually, the overall growth of the millennial population will make this demographic category dominant no matter how much it does or doesnt turn out. But for 2018, something more is needed.

One answer Democrats are offering is to recruit millennial candidates:

But there is a surprisingly underwhelming estimate of millennial turnout from a high-profile election this year featuring a millennial candidate and all the money and enthusiasm in the world: the special election in the sixth district of Georgia. Nate Cohn ran the numbers the day after the first-round election on April 18:

Democrats did turn out a higher percentage of their millennial voters for Jon Ossoff than Republicans turned out for their candidates. But his strong performance owed more to a higher share of older white voters than to any triumph over the midterm falloff.

So the challenge persists heading toward 2018. In the end a vote is a vote, and Democrats can claw back a lot of congressional seats through a combination of relatively small improvements among 2016 Trump voters, 2016 congressional Republican voters, and stay-at-home-prone Democratic millennials and minorities. But figuring out what makes millennials vote in proportionate numbers would be priceless.

Museum Donors Are Pissed Celebs Were Smoking in the Met Gala Bathrooms

In Trumps America, Being Sexually Assaulted Could Make Your Health Insurance More Expensive

Ranking All 373 Rolling Stones Songs

Exclusive! Sebastian Gorka Leaves a Note for His McDonalds Server

Whats New on Netflix: May 2017

This Is What a Modern-Day Witch Hunt Looks Like

Star Wars Superfan Adam Scott Quivers With Panic and Joy After Being Surprised by Mark Hamill

Dont Call Me a Millennial Im an Old Millennial

The Lesbian Chinese Billionaires Everyone Is Sharing Is Actually K-pop Fanfiction

Republican Blurts Out That Sick People Dont Deserve Affordable Care

Most Popular Video On Daily Intelligencer

Advocates for HBCUs arent sure what to make of Trumps first signing statement, which may be signaling that the White House will block the funding.

The private funeral for 15-year-old Jordan Edwards was held on Saturday.

Some security experts believe the attack came from the same Russia-linked hackers who sought to disrupt the U.S. election.

In the new issue of its magazine, the terror group implores would-be jihadists to take advantage of Americas lax gun laws.

In rough justice for GOP candidate and voting-rights pariah Karen Handel, a judge has extended registration for her runoff contest with Jon Ossoff.

Oh gosh I dont think any individual has read the whole bill.

The Senate Intelligence Committee finally appears to be getting to work.

In 2018 Democrats can take advantage of millennial antipathy toward Donald Trump. But first they must address millennial antipathy toward voting.

Heres why House moderates voted for a more unpopular, right-wing version of a bill that was too unpopular and right-wing for them just weeks ago.

White House: The president didnt mean he loves socialized medicine. Trump: Yes, I really meant it.

Who needs the truth?

A new survey highlights the lack of good empirical evidence to suggest that college students are the free-speech enemies many suppose them to be.

Thats Sebastian Gorka, Ph.D.

While House passage of Trumpcare was essential for GOP plans, Senate concerns and procedures will make the next stage of the debate very different.

The position is not political and firings are extremely rare.

Murders are down about 13 percent compared to this time last year.

Whatever else it means, passage of Trumpcare spells trouble for the House Republicans especially Californians in tough districts who voted for it.

Despite the big bump in hiring, wages remained stagnant.

The presidents Twitter engagement has been on a steady decline since the inauguration.

North Korea accuses America of a lot of things. But this allegation is unusually detailed.

Read more from the original source:
Will Millennials Save Democrats in 2018? - New York Magazine