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Donald Trump has one big blessing to count this Thanksgiving, despite the scandals ricocheting around his White House. The US economy's almost supernatural resilience is keeping him in the game with the 2020 election looming.

A general rule of US politics is that a strong economy all but guarantees reelection for a first-term President. And while Trump hasn't consistently produced the 4% growth rates he promised, a projected expansion of around 2% for 2019 isn't bad in fact, it's better than most US competitors. But 2020 might be a wild card.

Trump takes a victory lap every time the Dow leaps into new territory, but his approval ratings aren't keeping up the way they should. The CNN poll pegged him at just 42% perilous territory for a President seeking a second term. While the impeachment drama has not seemed to damage his viability, Trump has never enjoyed majority approval, largely because he alienates so many voters with his scorched earth approach.

Dark clouds are also looming. Several US regional Federal Reserve banks predict growth may dip below 1% in the fourth quarter. Experts warn Trump's trade war with China is also a drag meaning he may be tempted by a deal that he can bill as a big win, even if it's fairly modest. And manufacturing, a vital economic driver in Midwestern states that Trump must win, is beginning to hurt.

If the economy stays strong, it can be a launchpad for a narrow Trump election victory. If it dips, he could be in trouble. If there's a recession, he's likely toast.

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Donald Trump has one big blessing to count this Thanksgiving - CNN