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Joe Bidens vote share in Kenosha, Wisconsin was conspicuously low

May 22nd 2021

AS PROTESTERS FILLED American streets last year to decry the killing of George Floyd, Joe Biden had reason to feel nervous. Four days before Floyds death, Omar Wasow, an academic, published a paper claiming that violent racial-justice demonstrations following the murder of Martin Luther King in 1968 had set off a backlash. Vote shares for Richard Nixon, who ran for president promising law and order, were 1.5-7.9 percentage points higher in mostly white areas near violent protests than in comparable ones that were farther away.

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Democrats fears now look ill-founded. Just 6% of the 10,000 Black Lives Matter demonstrations in May-October 2020 were violent, according to ACLED, a database. Mr Bidens lead in polls grew in the wake of Floyds murder. A recent study by Bouke Klein Teeselink of Yale and Georgios Melios of University College London argued that the protests in fact aided Mr Biden. It found that Democrats vote share rose more in 2016-20 in areas with good weather in late springcausing large, frequent marchesthan in places where it rained.

However, this paper treated violent and peaceful protests equally. When marches did turn violent, data from Kenosha, Wisconsin imply that Republicans benefited.

In August Kenosha police shot Jacob Blake, a black man. Enraged citizens took to the streets; many looted stores and burned down buildings. A local business group estimated the damage at $50m.

Last week Jesse Richardson, a university student, published a blog noting that Mr Bidens vote share was lower in Kenosha than in similar parts of Wisconsin. Following his work, The Economist drilled down to the precinct level, the smallest electoral unit. Using demography, density and vote history, we built a model to predict presidential votes in the states 3,300 precincts.

Beyond a 30-mile radius from Kenosha, the model matched reported votes well. Within that circle, however, Mr Bidens vote share lagged its estimate. Near its centre, he fell short by 2.4 percentage points. Among Wisconsins 50 most populous counties, Mr Bidens biggest deficit relative to predicted votes was in Kenosha County.

The presidents weak showing in Kenosha could have been caused by something besides the protests. But the most likely interpretation is that when frustration with the police boils over into lawless demonstrations, the party seeking changes to policing tends to pay an electoral price.

Sources: Wisconsin secretary of state; US Census Bureau;The Economist

This article appeared in the Graphic detail section of the print edition under the headline "Price of progress"

Read the rest here:
Rioting amid demonstrations for racial justice may have helped Donald Trump - The Economist