Leaked EU Diplomatic Cable: DELEGATION OF THE EUROPEAN UNION TO ETHIOPIA | Scoop News – Scoop.co.nz
DELEGATION OF THE EUROPEAN UNION TOETHIOPIA
Author: J.NAUDTS
Date: August 20th,2021
Classification:LIMITED
To: RitaLaranjinha
Subject: ETHIOPIA OverviewAugust 14 20: Both sides remain convinced that amilitary victory is withinreach
While fightingbetween TDF/TPLF and ENDF/Amhara Forces continued on severalfronts, OLA extended occupation of rural areas in OromiaRegion and gained control over some important roads. Thereseems to be small to no appetite to start negotiating atthis point: both sides are convinced that they will be ableto achieve a decisive military victory within the comingmonths. Eritrea reportedly sent reinforcements to WesternTigray and might be preparing a new offensive. There is nomore food available in Tigray and the humanitarian needs inother regions are also growing fast. The repression againstethnic Tigrayans in Addis Ababa and other parts of Ethiopiais continuing. PM Abiy Ahmed made a visit Asmara and toTurkey where he signed a military cooperationagreement.
1. Whilefighting between TDF/TPLF and ENDF/Amhara Forces continuedon several fronts, OLA managed to occupy large parts of therural areas in Oromia including gaining control over someimportant roads. It will require a lot of security resourcesfrom the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) to manage thegeographical expansion of OLA territory and to try to regaincontrol over the occupied areas.
2. Some analysts aresaying that Eritrea is preparing a counter-offensive fromthe North and from the West against TDF/TPLF in order toforce the Tigrayans to withdraw troops from the current wartheatres in Amhara. Other analysts point out that Eritreamight be preparing for a TDF/TPLF offensive into Eritreawhich is anticipated to start after the rainy season (by theend of September).
3. The GoE continues stressing thatno negotiation with TDF/TPLF will be possible, unless thelatter stops fighting and withdraw from Amhara region. Bothsides are convinced that they will be able to obtain adecisive military victory within the coming months, forcingthe other side to make important concessions in a possiblefuture negotiation.
4. GoE did not loosen restrictionson humanitarian access to Tigray. While continue pledgingunfettered humanitarian access, the reality created on theground is different as experienced by the Delegationwhile trying to obtain flight permissions for theHumanitarian Air Bridge to Mekelle.
5. On theinternational scene, PM Abiy Ahmed made a visit to Asmara onhis way to Turkey, where he signs a military cooperationagreement. In all likelihood the PM was discussingthe
procurement of drone technology which in theeyes of the Ethiopian PM could hand a decisive militaryadvantage to the ENDF. Unconfirmed reports of Turkish dronesto be deployed in Ethiopia soon followed thevisit.
6. During the week of August 14th-20th,fighting between TDF/TPLF and ENDF/Amhara forces continuedon at least four fronts in the Amhara Region: Debark (roadfrom Tigray border to Gondar), Sekota (road from Tigrayborder to Lalibela), Debre Tabor (road from Weldia to BaharDar) and Winchale (road from Weldia to Dessie). Severalclaims and counter-claims were made about the occupation oftowns, with the overall trend still indicating a furtheradvance of TDF/TPLF forces deeper into the AmharaRegion.
7. ENDF launched a counter-offensive from Afarinto Tigray, launching attacks on the TDF/TPLF Easternflank. Fighting was reported near Chifra (Afar) and Mehoni(Tigray).
8. Over the past days, Deputy Prime MinisterDemeke Mekonnen visited several places in Amhara close tothe front lines. He is the first member of the Governmentknown to visit areas with active fighting since the start ofthe conflict.
9. Several universities in Amhara Regionhave started organizing basic military training programs fortheir staff and students.
10. After the announcement of its alliancewith TDF/TPLF, more focus was put on the Oromo LiberationArmy (OLA). While initial assessments showed some doubts onthe OLAs numerical strength and military capacities, theyhave made some remarkable progress over the past weeks incontrolling several rural areas and in cutting importantroads. In Western Oromia, OLA controls several the ruralareas of the four Wellega zones, as well as the mainroads around the town of Nekemte. In Southern Oromia, OLAcontrols rural areas of the Guji Zone and managed toestablish check points on the main road between Addis Ababaand the Kenyan border. In the North Shoa Zone of NorthernOromia, OLA took control of rural areas near the town ofKuyu and also briefly occupied the town itself.
11. InSouth-Eastern Amhara, OLA is reported to have occupiedseveral rural districts near the town of Kemisse on the mainroad from Addis Ababa towards Dessie and Weldia. OLA is alsoreported to be have established itself around the gorge ofthe Blue Nile on the border between the Amhara and OromiaRegional States, and to have established a check point onthe main road between Addis Ababa and Bahar Dar near thebridge at Dejen.
12. While the OLA clearly does nothave the same level of organization, equipment and militaryexperience as the TDF/TPLF, the organization seems to beinggaining support among the rural population in large parts ofthe Oromia Region (as well as in areas of the Amhara Regionwith a strong presence of ethnic Oromo). It was reportedfrom some rural areas how OLA enters villages, calls villagemeetings in order to explain its objectives and policies tothe local
population and afterwards just asks theProsperity Party administrators and security forces to leavepeacefully which in some cases happened.
13. OnAugust 17th, one of the smaller opposition parties in theAfar Region, the Afar National Democratic Party, announcedthat it will join the TDF/TPLF-OLA coalition against theGovernment of PM Abiy Ahmed. It is reported that alsosmaller, relatively unknown movements such as theBenishangul Liberation Front and the Sidama Liberation Fronthave announced that they will join the TDF/TPLF-OLAalliance. One of the two factions in the Oromo Liberationfront (OLF), on the other hand, announced that it willcontinue to support PM Abiy Ahmed.
14.Eritrean troops are occupying a strip of territory inNorthern Tigray reaching from Adigrat to Shire and Badme.Eritrean troops are also present in Western Tigray, wherethey have taken up defensive positions with tanks andartillery around Adi Goshu and Humera, and possibly alsoalong the border with Sudan. Over the past days, it wasreported that Eritrea has sent
reinforcements toWestern Tigray. This could possibly have been done in orderto replace ENDF and Amhara units that have been re-deployedin Amhara Region.
15. PM Abiy Ahmed made a short visitto the Eritrean capital Asmara on August 17th no moredetails as the visit was not publicised.
16. Samantha Power, head of the U.S. Agencyfor International Development (USAID), issued a statement onAugust 19th highlighting that for the first time in ninemonths of war in Ethiopias Tigray region aid workerswill this week run out of food to deliver to millions ofpeople in the Region who are facing hunger: USAID and itspartners as well as other humanitarian organizations havedepleted their stores of food items warehoused inTigray.
17. In the meantime, Western Tigray currently occupied by Amhara, Eritrean and ENDF forces remains inaccessible to humanitarian actors.
18. Dueto active fighting, humanitarian needs in the Afar andAmhara Regions are increasing fast. Exact numbers are hardto come by, but it is known that several 100,000s of peoplebecome IDPs over the past weeks. USAID made public itsnew allocation of humanitarian aid to the tworegions.
19. The Telegraph Newspaper on August 17thpublished a detailed account including satellite pictures of TDF/TPLF attacks on Amhara civilians in severalvillages in the Kobo area between Alamata and Weldia thatwould have taken place during the first week of August.TDF/TPLF published a statement on August 19th to deny theseaccusations and to call for an independent UN-ledinvestigation.
20. The Agency for Civil SocietyOrganizations (ACSO) announced that it is investigating 11local and international organizations for alleged fraudulentactivities. No list of the CSOs under investigation waspublished. EU partners also reported that ACSO has stoppedthe
accreditation process for new organizations, whichmight create a challenge for some EU partner organizationsthat were in process to finalize their official registrationin Ethiopia.
21. During the past days, police in AddisAbaba carried out a new round of arrests of Tigrayans livingin the capital. Among those arrested was Hailu Kebede of theSalsay Woyane Part (a political party from Tigray opposed tothe TPLF), who met with EU Envoy Pekka Haavisto some monthsago (as well as with the EU EOM Assessment Team).
22.On August 18th, Human Rights Watch published a detailedaccount documenting the ethic profiling, unlawful arrestsand forced disappearances of ethnic Tigrayans in the capitalAddis Ababa.
23. Over the past weeks, there have beenunconfirmed reports of attacks on ethnic Tigrayans in sometowns of the Amhara Region reportedly even people whoonly have a very remote connection with the Tigray Regionhave also been targeted.
24. On August 18th, allEmbassies and International Organizations based in AddisAbaba received a Verbal Note from the Ministry of ForeignAffairs asking them to provide a detailed list of allsecurity staff employed to secure their premises/residences.Of particular concern the is request to all Embassies toprovide details on the ethnicity of their securitystaff. Several EU MS have already indicated that they arenot planning to provide the requested information to theEthiopian authorities this will be coordinated in thenext HoMs meeting on August 24th.
25. It looks increasinglyunlikely that the second part of the elections will takeplace on September 6th. The latest rumours from the NationalElectoral Board of Ethiopia indicate a postponement probablyto the end of September.
26. One of the areas wherethe elections still have to take place is the Somali Region.The Ogaden National liberation Front (ONLF) expressed theirfrustration over the NEBEs investigations into thecomplaints they filed together with other opposition partiesregarding the voter registration process in Somali Region.ONLF published a statement sayingthat
participating in the rigged elections in theSomali State will be meaningless.
27. Unconfirmedreports indicate that protests took place last week in theWestern Gambella Region against the ruling Prosperity Partyover the general call for mobilization that was launched bythe Government last week (each Region is apparently expectedto send a certain numbers of recruits to the fronts inNorthern Ethiopia).
28. On the invitation of the Turkish PresidentErdogan, PM Abiy Ahmed made an official visit to Turkey onAugust 17th 18th. On the occasion of the visit, Ethiopiaand Turkey announced the signature of diplomatic, social andeconomic agreements; as well as cooperation
agreementson water development and military cooperation. PresidentErdogan also stated that he attaches great importance to theresolution of the Tigray crisis and offered to mediate onthe border dispute between Ethiopia and Sudan.
29. Itis presumed that PM Abiy Ahmed asked Turkish support toobtain military technology, especially drones. Dronetechnology played a big role in the first phase of theconflict in November 2020, when TDF/TPLF was pushed back toremote mountainous areas of Tigray. The Ethiopian PMafterwards talked enthusiastically about this dronetechnology in the Ethiopian Parliament and seems convincedthat it could alter the course of the war once again.According to analyst, the Ethiopian PM would moresspecifically be interested in obtaining TurkishBayraktar-TB2 and ANKA-S drones.
30. It was reportedlast week that the Ethiopian authorities transferred themanagement of 6 on 11 Turkish schools in Ethiopia which usedto be run by the Gulen Movement to the pro GovernmentTurkeys Maarif Foundation. This is still controversial assome of the schools were actually lawfully owned by Germanprivate education companies.
31. Ethiopian State-mediacontinue to broadcast programs with anti-Western content,targeting specifically the US and theEU.
Sign-off Luca Zampetti ChargdAffaires
Scoop Media
Scoop Independent News
Scoop is NZ's largest independent news source; respected widely in media, political, business and academic circles for being the place on the internet for publishing "what was really said", and for the quality of its analysis of issues.
Read the original:
Leaked EU Diplomatic Cable: DELEGATION OF THE EUROPEAN UNION TO ETHIOPIA | Scoop News - Scoop.co.nz
- President Trump and European Union President Speak After Meeting in Turnberry, Scotland - C-SPAN - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Following a European Union Trade Deal, Heres the Top Move You Should Make Today - Yahoo Finance - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- U.S. and European Union trade deal could cost the pharma industry up to $19 billion - Fast Company - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- United States and European Union come to terms on trade deal framework - logisticsmgmt.com - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Fact Sheet: The United States and European Union Reach Massive Trade Deal - kboi.com - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Reaction to the European Union's trade agreement with the Trump administration - Midland Daily News - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- What's at stake with the European Union-U.S. trading partnership if a tariff deal isn't reached - Wyoming Public Media - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- China and the European Union Europea: The summit that wasnt - Pressenza - International Press Agency - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- A group of 32 long-term observers from the European Union were deployed today to the nine departments of Bolivia - EEAS - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- The French rebel against a pesticide authorised for use in the European Union - Euronews.com - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- European Union has the votes to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. - upi.com - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- European Union: Concerns over systematic restrictions against solidarity with the Palestinian people - fidh.org - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- China and the European Union: The End of Strategic Ambiguity - Robert Lansing Institute - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- The European Union Could Force All Rental Car Companies to Buy EVs As Early As 2030 - Road & Track - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- European Union | ETIAS fee has increased to 20 euros - BAL Immigration Law - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- European Union's Black Printing Ink Market to See Modest Growth with CAGR of +1.4% from 2024 to 2035 - IndexBox - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Confirmed Trump imposes 30% tariffs on the European Union and Mexico as of August 1 - Blanquivioletas - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- European Union's Acyclic Hydrocarbons Derivatives Market to Experience Slight Growth with CAGR of +0.7% - IndexBox - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- European Union's Almond Market to Grow at a Decelerating Rate with a CAGR of +0.8% from 2024 to 2035 - IndexBox - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- European Union's Wheat Market Expected to Reach 118M Tons and $34.3B by 2035 - IndexBox - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- European Union's Nail and Bolt Market to Grow at +1.2% CAGR Over the Next Decade - IndexBox - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- European Union's HVAC Equipment Market to Grow at +1.0% CAGR, Reaching 932M Units by 2035 - IndexBox - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- European Union's Vacuum Pumps and Air or Gas Compressors Market to Witness 1.8% CAGR Growth from 2024 to 2035 - IndexBox - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- European Union's Confectionery Market to Experience Slow Growth with CAGR of +1.2% - IndexBox - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- European Union increasing pressure on Russia to end invasion of Ukraine - WFAA - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- European Union's Flat Hot-Rolled Steel in Coils Market to Grow at +1.4% CAGR, Reaching 37M Tons by 2035 - IndexBox - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- The European Union Passed Its Artificial Intelligence Bill. Will It Enforce It? - Billboard - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Solidarity visit to Ukraine: COMECE witnesses the scale of human loss - The Catholic Church in the European Union - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Briefing paper for the 13th European Union-Vietnam human rights dialogue - fidh.org - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- How Important Are the Turkic States to the European Union, and in What Areas? - Hungarian Conservative - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- European Union threatens tariff retaliation after Trumps trade move - CGTN America - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- European Union Responds to Trump Tariffs by Targeting Boeing, U.S. Cars and Bourbon - CPA Practice Advisor - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- EU expands sanctions against Russia for destabilization in the European Union and Ukraine - - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Nine Iranian individuals and entities added to the European Union's new sanctions list - Iran Focus - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- European Union to delay retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods in hopes of reaching deal - CBS News - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Trump announces tariffs of 30% on Mexico and the European Union - CNN - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Video Trump threatens the European Union and Mexico with new tariffs - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- European Union on the ropes as Trump and China turn the screws - South China Morning Post - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Trump announces tariffs on European Union, Mexico starting in August - CBS News - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- EUR/USD rises to near 1.1700 due to Trumps tariff threats on European Union - FXStreet - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Trump: European Union in discussions with us on trade - Forex Factory - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Trump announces 30% tariffs on Mexico and European Union starting Aug. 1 - CBS News - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Trump Announces 30% Tariffs On European Union And Mexico As Trade War Ramps Up Again - HuffPost - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Trump announces 30% tariff on European Union and Mexico - The Economic Times - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Trump announces 30 percent tariffs against European Union and Mexico - The Boston Globe - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Trump announces shocking new tariffs for European Union and Mexico that will have a major impact - UNILAD - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Trump announces tariffs of 30% on Mexico and the European Union - KTVZ - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Israel, European Union reach deal on more aid, fuel deliveries to Gaza - The Washington Post - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Trump hits the European Union (EU) with a 30% tariff, starting on August 1 - Forexlive | Forex News, Technical Analysis & Trading Tools - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars in the European Union: A 2025 update and key factors to consider - International Council on... - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Trump's 30% tariff threat on European Union goods a negotiation tactic: EU officials - Mint - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- European Union's Dental Fittings Market to Reach 14M Units and $13.1B in Value by 2035 - IndexBox - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Bigger, better funded and focused on public goods: how to revamp the European Union budget - Bruegel - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- European Union Special Representatives for the Sahel and the Horn of Africa visit Addis Ababa - EEAS - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Iceland : The 28th member state of the European Union ? Le Taurillon - treffpunkteuropa.de - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- European Union's Caramel Market to Reach 606K Tons and $838M by 2035 - IndexBox - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- European Union's Threaded Steel Articles Market to Grow at +1.4% CAGR, Reaching $4.4B by 2035 - IndexBox - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- The European Union awards an additional 14.8 million in Aid to UNICEF to support the most vulnerable children and strengthen disaster preparedness in... - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Speech by President Antnio Costa at the opening ceremony of the Danish Presidency of the Council of the European Union - consilium.europa.eu - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Deepening structural reforms and reprioritising public spending can boost growth in the European Union - OECD - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Now Unfolding The Impact Of Russias Military Priorities On International Travel: Insights For US, China, European Union And CIS Markets: Here Is What... - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- European Union's Butan-1-ol Market to Experience Slight Growth with +0.3% CAGR in Volume and +1.6% CAGR in Value from 2024 to 2035 - IndexBox - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- China and the European Union Hold the 13th Round of High-level Strategic Dialogue - fmprc.gov.cn - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- European Union's Cobalt Oxides and Hydroxides Market Expected to Grow steadily at +2.3% CAGR over the Next Decade - IndexBox - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- European Union's Lubricating Oil Additives Market to Expand at a CAGR of +2.4% Through 2035, Reaching $103.1B in Market Value - IndexBox - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- New spokesperson for the European Union Mission in Mozambique is from Minho - EEAS - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- European Union nations call for stricter limits on sperm donation - Live Action | Pro-Life - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- European Union's Cheese Market: Increasing Demand for Grated, Powdered, and Blue-Veined Cheeses to Drive Market Growth to 7M tons and $48.4B by 2035 -... - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- European Union's Silver Market to See Slight Growth with +1.3% CAGR Driving Consumption Trends - IndexBox - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- European Union's Grape Market to Witness Mild Growth with CAGR of +0.5% from 2024 to 2035 - IndexBox - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- European Union Set to Redefine Budget Air Travel with Ambitious Policy Guaranteeing Free Carry-On Luggage and Greater Passenger Freedom on All EU and... - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- European Union's Iron and Steel Slabs, Billets, and Blooms Market to Exhibit Slight Growth with CAGR of +0.4% through 2035 - IndexBox - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- The United States has submitted a fresh trade deal proposal to the European Union - Forexlive | Forex News, Technical Analysis & Trading Tools - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Why Apple is revamping its App Store terms in the European Union - Fast Company - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Fiala: The European Union should not terminate the association agreement with Israel - European Newsroom - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- European Union's Nitric and Sulphonitric Acids Market to Reach 1.5M Tons and $586M by 2035 - IndexBox - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- European Union's Aniline Derivatives Market Expected to See +1.5% CAGR Growth Over Next Decade - IndexBox - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- One-sided account of Israels actions in Gaza, Bnai Brith says of European Union report - JNS.org - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Importing Conflict into the European Union Not the Way to Peace, Hungarian PMs Political Director Says - The European Conservative - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- After NATO Deal, How Far Will European Union Go For Trade Peace With Donald Trump - NDTV - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]