The Economic and Political Impact of Brexit on the European Union – Sputnik International

Brexit means the EU sheds one ofits largest annual contributorsthe UK contributesaround US$19.3 billion (18.2bn) leavingGermanyandFrancefar and away the largest donors, atUS$25.8 billion (24.3bn) and US$20.1 billion (19bn) respectively.

In interviews withlocal media, Commissioner Oettinger indicated cuts would be made tothe EU budget, particularly inthe field ofagricultural subsidies, butthese would be insufficient tocover the shortfall created bythe UK's departure, and other countries' contributions may have torise asa result. He suggested Germany would be obliged topay atleast US$4.8 billion (4.5bn) extra from2019.

It is not the first time Oettinger has expressed concern aboutthe fiscal impact ofBrexit onthe EU and his home country, although his forecasts forhow much it might cost have escalated overtime forinstance,he previously suggestedit may cost Germany an extra US$1 billion.

Nevertheless, the question ofwhat impact Brexit might have onindividual EU Member States, and the bloc overall, has rarely been considered inthe mainstream Western media.

Given the UK is theEU's third most populous member state, comprising 12.76 percent ofthe bloc's overall population, the country is a highly influential player inthe European Council and Parliament, and the UKspends more ondefensethan any other EU country.

The implications could be seismic, although analysis byUniversity College London (UCL) suggests a raft ofpotentially positive developments.

For one, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)could be jettisoned outright the UK was a determined lobbyist infavor ofthe controversial trade deal, despitethe protestations ofleaders such asFrench President Francois Hollande.

AFP 2016/ FREDERICK FLORIN

Members of the European Parliament take part in a voting session as they hold signs against the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), on June 10, 2015, in the European Parliament in Strasbourg, eastern France

Brexit could also increase EU protectionism, asthe strength ofpotentially protectionist member states would grow.Open Europe analysisof Council voting patterns notes that underthe Council's Qualified Majority voting system, the Southern protectionist bloc (France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal and Cyprus) and Northern liberal bloc (UK, Germany, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland and the Baltics) are ineffective deadlock.

Without the UK, the collective weight ofthe liberal bloc would decline, whereas the protectionist bloc would strengthen, producing a less open EU. Brexit would also alter Parliament's party landscape and ideological composition over60 percent ofthe UK's 73 MEPs currently sit withcenter-right and Eurokceptic groups.

While it's unclear whether the UK's seats will be lost or reallocated, their loss would arguably strengthen the left, asfor the first time inyears, progressive parties could form majorities withoutthe European People's Party. In an ironic twist, this may mean that if and when the UK is obliged toimport policies fromthe EU, they will be ofa more social democratic nature thanin the past.

REUTERS/ Vincent Kessler

Members of the European Parliament take part in a voting session at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, December 14, 2016.

Moreover, Brexit could alter the balance ofpower withinthe EU inother ways too namely, bystrengthening Germany's position, while weakening smaller states.

VoteWatchdata shows that the UK's main voting allies are Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands Germany almost never votes the same way.

UCL contend this inturn will strengthen the Eurozone, which could replace the single market asthe EU's core and driving force. The UK has long been a staunch skeptic and critic ofthe single currency, withits leadersrepeatedly emphasizingthe need tokeep the Eurozone distinct fromthe EU. British withdrawal bydefinition means the end ofsuch pressure.

While strengthening some EU interests and objectives, Brexit could also have a deleterious impact inother areas.

For instance, Brexit will almost inevitably weaken the EU's global role the only question is how severely. Britain is the EU's foremost military power, and its membership means the EU can access the country's significant diplomatic network, intelligence capabilities and soft power.For instance, the LSE question whether the EU could have imposed sanctions onRussia withoutthe UK's international strength and note that post-Brexit, France would be the only major military power inthe EU, potentially undermining future development ofserious EU military capabilities, such asthe long-awaited EU army.

Brexit could even be the long-term trigger ofthe EU's eventual collapse. The period sincethe June 23 referendum has seen the rise toprominence ofanti-EU politicians incountries such asAustria, Denmark, France,the Netherlandsand Sweden.

Should Britain thrive outsidethe bloc, the case forother countries exiting would be strongly emboldened.

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The Economic and Political Impact of Brexit on the European Union - Sputnik International

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