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If Hillary Clinton doesnt run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016 and theres 1 chance in 5 of that the party could have a nervous breakdown.

On the national level, the Democratic bench is weaker, or more overshadowed, than at any time in the past several decades. There are several reasons. The election disaster in 2010 wiped out many possibilities, especially at the gubernatorial level. More important, with two heavyweight camps President Barack Obama and the Clintons there is no political oxygen for anyone else.

Suppose, for example, that upon taking over as secretary of state, Clinton had declared that she wouldnt run for elective office again. The field might look much different today.

For one, several ambitious female Democrats might be dipping their toes in the presidential waters: for example, Sens. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota or Kirsten Gillibrand of New York. Now, the Democratic political sisterhood is completely vested in Hillary.

This sense that America is overdue to elect a woman is powerful and extends even beyond its borders.

Im optimistic Ill live to see a female president of the United States, former Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard said in an interview last week.

If Clinton doesnt run, the focus will be on 71-year-old Vice President Joe Biden, who is personally popular with Democrats. But his two previous presidential runs crashed, and in 2016 he would be older than Ronald Reagan was when he was re- elected in 1984.

Most of the passion in the party would center on Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Her brainy populism puts her more in sync with party activists and most voters than any other major figure, including Clinton. But shes a political neophyte 2012 was her first campaign and she has expressed doubts privately about whether she would be comfortable with a national run at this stage.

Other women certainly might jump in if Clinton is out. So, too, could New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, testing whether his brand can fly outside the Empire State.

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Column: If Hillary Clinton Doesnt Run, Who Will?