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Today on The Fix, Chris and I are exploring opposite sides of the same argument: Whether Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2016.

Chris is pretty sure -- OK, very sure -- she will. Longtime political analyst Charlie Co0k is considerably less certain, pegging it at 60 to 70 percent. Similarly, I tend to think we always overestimate how likely candidates are to run. It's a big decision, and lots of things need to happen to make it a "go." Even people who really want to run often decide not to, for varying reasons.

What might those reasons be for Clinton? Below are five conceivable hurdles.Let me qualify, though, that I still think it's much more likely that she will run than not. But any one of these things could be a significant obstacle in her decision-making process.

1. The prospect of losing

It seems like we've already discussed Clinton's inevitability ad nauseam, but that inevitability really only applies to the Democratic primary. Her odds in the general election are headed toward being a 50/50 proposition -- and getting worse.

Although Clinton's approval rating reached upward of 60 to 65 percent as secretary of state, her favorable rating in the days since she stepped down has steadily fallen -- so much so that most recent polls show her under 50 percent (although still more positive than negative). That's pretty middling territory.

Here's polling of a Clinton match-up with Jeb Bush:

And Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.):

And Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.):

She leads all comers, but she's also better-known than all of them. She's also hovering around 50 percent and losing ground.

Originally posted here:
Theres a real chance Hillary Clinton wont run for ...