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US President Donald Trumps decision to suspend work visas and pause issuance of green cards hits one country the hardest -- India. His executive order is temporary, but that wont shorten the chain of disappointment, or mitigate suffering of thousands of families.

Last weeks proclamation suspended H-1B (high-skilled workers), H-4 (spouses of H-1Bs), L-1 (intra-company transfers) visas, among others, until the end of 2020. The stated reason: the US economy and high unemployment. Unstated reason: shoring up Trumps base and tapping potential voters who have turned fearful of immigration because of the coronavirus pandemic.

There are two sides to the order: an obvious political one, and a potentially deeper regulatory problem, which could negatively impact hundreds of thousands of Indians awaiting green cards.

The executive order is red meat to Trumps base and completes the circle of his initial, Buy American, Hire American edict. Fear is easy to exploit in any political season, but its easier with an economy in dire straits and a second wave of coronavirus hitting the country.

Donald Trumps poll numbers are bad, and he seems nervous about re-election, going by his Twitter meter. He let anti-immigration hawkish advisor Stephen Miller loose to do what scores of US business leaders opposed. Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon et al have criticised the suspension of H-1B visas, saying it would hurt the US economy and lead to more off-shoring. Canada is already a beneficiary.

But the #AmericaFirst crowd is happy, and sees the decision as a much-needed correction. Critics have long claimed the H-1B progamme is nothing but a vehicle for cheap labour to be exploited by large corporations. In reality, H-1B visas have become increasingly burdensome.

So, whats the real impact of Trumps latest disruption? First, US embassies and consulates stopped processing visas on March 20 because of the coronavirus pandemic. Its unclear when those services will resume, and uncertainty adds to the misery of those caught in the middle.

Second, Trumps order affects future applicants, not existing ones. Trump clearly split the difference between Millers extremism and other advisors moderation. But if the economy doesnt improve and the suspension continues, things will get tougher.

Third, US companies have cut back on projected budgets as they try to stabilise in this virus-hit environment where safety regulations and social distancing make hiring more difficult.

Fourth, Indian IT companies have already adjusted their business models -- they are less reliant on H-1B visas. The story has changed over time given the constant attacks, bad press, rising visa fees, and the growing jungle of paperwork required for H-1Bs.

Indian IT majors have steadily increased local hiring with as much as 70% of the work force coming from within the US. Infosys, TCS, Wipro and Tech Mahindra have thousands of Americans working for them. That cant be news to Miller or the anti-H-1B lobby. But facts rarely interfere in an ideological battle.

Its true that most of the H-1B visa holders are Indian, and the vast majority are employed by US tech titans, not Indian companies. In 2019, of the 388,403 H-1Bs, 72% were from India. China is in second place at 13%. The story is the same for green cards.

This is where the regulations to enforce Trumps order could be the devil of the detail. The new regulatory framework is expected soon but no one knows when. If existing rules are changed, more than 350,000 Indian professionals on H-1Bs awaiting green cards could become vulnerable.

The Indian line is long, because the US issues 140,000 employment-based green cards annually, and the 7% per country limit has swelled Indian numbers over the years. They are perfectly legal as of now. But Miller and his ideological friends in various agencies could demand new labour certification through new regulations. That would prompt legal challenges taking the fight to the courts.

The US Congress could help by lifting the 7% cap on green cards. But a powerful Democrat -- Senator Dick Durbin -- has effectively blocked recent bipartisan efforts to do precisely that.

Everyone agrees Americas immigration is broken. Attempts at comprehensive reform have failed over the years because Democrats and Republicans cant agree on a fix. Tinkering and piecemeal solutions have given temporary relief. But thats about it.

Now the two parties are so far apart, a bipartisan solution seems distant. The Democrats essentially see immigration as a human right and want any deal to include a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants. The Republicans want no such amnesty, only the best and the brightest. Trump knows Americas mood has changed on immigration. He has been busy erecting walls.

Originally posted here:
View: Trump's H-1B visa suspension may have more to it than meets the eye - Economic Times