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With President Obama making his announcement to take executive action on immigration at 8:00 pm ET and with Republicans vowing to fight him, we have one simple prediction for both sides. To quote the famous 20th Century philosopher Clubber Lang, Pain. For Obama, our new NBC/WSJ poll previews that predicted pain, with 48% of Americans opposing him taking executive action here, versus 38% supporting him. (Those numbers look very similar to polling on the health-care law, no?) That said, our NBC/WSJ survey also shows the public supporting him on the underlying policy -- with 57% favoring a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and with 74% backing it when they hear what that pathway entails. Beyond the legal arguments (and most legal experts believe Obamas action is within the law), Obamas biggest problem here is process. Americans prefer elected leaders coming together to get something done; indeed, our NBC/WSJ poll shows the public wanting compromise over sticking to positions by a 63%-30% margin. So Obama probably is going to take a hit for going it alone. WHAT he is doing here isnt as unpopular as HOW hes doing it. And if weve learned anything in this era of political trench warfare, when the opposition is throwing the kitchen sink back at the White House, that doesnt help a presidents poll numbers.

GOP is more divided right now than the Democrats

But pain also is coming for the Republican Party. Why? Because no current issue divides the GOP more than immigration reform. Just look at the reaction after yesterdays news that Obama was going to make his executive-action announcement. On the one hand, there was outgoing Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) calling the recipients of Obamas deportation policy illiterate potential Democratic voters. On the other hand, there was Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ), one of the co-authors of the Gang of 8 Senate immigration bill, who told reporters that Republicans should respond to Obama by passing immigration-reform legislation. "I hope we respond with legislation," he said. "I hope we pass legislation." Right now, the Democratic Party is much more united here than the Republican Party is, at least when it comes to how they respond. And then theres the 2016 angle. As we wrote last week, Obamas immigration action is going to ENSURE that immigration becomes a key part of the GOP presidential nominating race. Most (if not all) of the Republicans running for president are going to have to denounce the move. And then the GOP contest will turn into whos tougher against the action. Like we saw in 2008 and 2012, that would push the eventual GOP nominee farther to the right than he or she might want to go. This is why some Republicans wanted to get immigration done last year -- to keep the issue away from the 2016 race.

A product of Obamas own doing

Heres one final point well make on Obamas immigration announcement and the blowback thats coming his way: Its his own doing. By allowing Senate Democrats to persuade him to wait until AFTER the midterms to do this, youre hearing Republicans complain that Obama is ignoring the will of the voters. (Then again, the 2014 national exit poll found 57% saying illegal immigrants working in the United States should be offered a chance to apply for legal status.) Of course, had Obama made his announcement in August or September, the blowback might have come then instead of now. But given what we said above about how its already divided Republicans, you wonder if Sen. Mark Udall (D-CO) wishes immigration had been the storyline heading in the final weeks of his failed re-election bid instead of everything else.

Jim Webb announces presidential exploratory committee

If you picked the former one-term Virginia senator as the FIRST person to announce a presidential bid (either in the form of an exploratory committee or full-fledged run), you win a prize. Late last night (at 11:59 pm ET !!!!!), former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb, Democrat, launched his exploratory committee late Wednesday night via Twitter, NBCs Kelly ODonnell reports. The former Marine, Navy secretary and author has been hinting at a run for the Democratic nomination for months. "I made this decision after reflecting on numerous political commentaries and listening to many knowledgeable people," Webb wrote on new website Webb2016.com. "I look forward to listening and talking with more people in the coming months as I decide whether or not to run." Why announce this so late at night? And why during the Great Immigration War? If you know Webb, nothing he does conforms to conventional wisdom.

Kasich stands out in Boca

At yesterdays RGA confab in Boca Raton, FL, Ohio Gov. John Kasich stood out -- by sounding different than his fellow GOP governors who might run for president (Mike Pence, Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal). Per NBCs Sarah Blackwill, of the five governors on stage, only Kasich was open to the possibility of a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, saying: "We've got to think about what's going to bring about healing. My sense is, I don't like the idea of citizenship when people jump the line, we may have to do it." Kasich's tone throughout the panel was strikingly different than his Republican colleagues, who called the president's planned move "the height of arrogance" (Jindal), "unconstitutional in his own words" (Perry), a "profound mistake" (Pence) and a "political" act to "change the subject" (Walker). Instead, Kasich called on Republican leaders in Congress to work with the president. As Yahoos Jon Ward writes, Kasich also appeared to support Common Core, and he justified his decision to expand Medicaid (Ronald Reagan expanded Medicaid, OK?).

Almost like the election never happened

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Immigration Action Will Likely Bring Pain (for Obama and GOP)