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Heres the big question about the 2020 presidential campaign: Is it going to be about the coronavirus or the court? Democrats want it to be about the coronavirus. Republicans want the main issue to be the Supreme Court.

Until now, the big issue in the presidential race has been the pandemic. President TrumpDonald John TrumpSteele Dossier sub-source was subject of FBI counterintelligence probe Pelosi slams Trump executive order on pre-existing conditions: It 'isn't worth the paper it's signed on' Trump 'no longer angry' at Romney because of Supreme Court stance MOREs poor performance has given Joe BidenJoe BidenPelosi slams Trump executive order on pre-existing conditions: It 'isn't worth the paper it's signed on' Hillicon Valley: Subpoenas for Facebook, Google and Twitter on the cards | Wray rebuffs mail-in voting conspiracies | Reps. raise mass surveillance concerns Fox News poll: Biden ahead of Trump in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Ohio MORE a steady lead. Now, suddenly, with the death of Associate Justice Ruth Bader GinsburgRuth Bader GinsburgTrump 'no longer angry' at Romney because of Supreme Court stance Fox News poll: Biden ahead of Trump in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Ohio On The Money: Anxious Democrats push for vote on COVID-19 aid | Pelosi, Mnuchin ready to restart talks | Weekly jobless claims increase | Senate treads close to shutdown deadline MORE, the Supreme Court has taken center stage. The Supreme Court issue could be a game changer.

For more than 50 years, the Supreme Court has been the principal player in the culture wars. Trump is counting on the culture wars to propel him to victory. His message is, Dont worry about the coronavirus. Its under control. Worry about which side is going to dominate the Supreme Court for the next 30 years the left or the right.

Beginning with the civil rights revolution of the 1960s, Democrats and liberals came to support a wide variety of social causes, including womens rights, affirmative action, busing, gay rights, immigration reform, abortion rights, sex education, contraception, required teaching of evolution, tolerance of pornography, a ban on prayer in public schools, legalization of marijuana and, most recently, same sex marriage. Liberals defend those measures as enhancements of individual rights. Conservatives see them as enhancements of government power and threats to religious freedom.

Pat Robertson once argued to me that every item on the religious rights social agenda including those just listed started out as a liberal initiative.

Many originated in federal court cases, often in Supreme Court decisions. The courts are the least democratic institutions of American government. Thats why religious conservatives see themselves as a populist force protesting government encroachments on personal morality and religious liberty.

Liberals see the religious right as culturally aggressive and themselves as culturally defensive. To conservatives like Pat Robertson and Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzThe Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by Facebook - Trump previews SCOTUS nominee as 'totally brilliant' Cruz blocks amended resolution honoring Ginsburg over language about her dying wish Trump argues full Supreme Court needed to settle potential election disputes MORE, its the other way around: They see liberals trying to win government endorsement of their anti-religious moral and social values while conservatives are defending pluralism and tolerance.

Liberals are often frustrated because the Supreme Court is usually a bigger issue to the right than to the left. In 2016, only 21 percent of the voters nationwide called Supreme Court appointments the most important factor in deciding how to vote. The folks voted 56 to 41 percent for Donald Trump over Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonFox News poll: Biden ahead of Trump in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Ohio Trump, Biden court Black business owners in final election sprint The power of incumbency: How Trump is using the Oval Office to win reelection MORE. The people who said Supreme Court appointments were not a factor at all went 55 to 37 percent for Clinton.

A political backlash emerges when liberals see a threat to hard-won progressive rights. Its happening now with the impending nomination of a staunch conservative to replace Ginsburg on the high court. Liberals see an expanded conservative majority on the court either striking down or radically limiting abortion rights, Obamacare, affirmative action, gun laws, protection for dreamers and same-sex marriage rights. It means that we are going to war, a Democratic activist told Politico.

We are certain to see a huge mobilization of forces on both the left and on the right. Supreme Court nominations have become a major battleground in American politics (Robert Bork, Clarence ThomasClarence ThomasGOP senator attacks Biden: 'I'm not sure what he recalls' Abortion, gun rights, ObamaCare at stake with Supreme Court pick Rush Limbaugh encourages Senate to skip hearings for Trump's SCOTUS nominee MORE, Brett KavanaughBrett Michael KavanaughTrump faces tricky choice on Supreme Court pick The Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump stokes fears over November election outcome The Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by Facebook - Trump previews SCOTUS nominee as 'totally brilliant' MORE). Presidential campaigns are another major battleground, particularly when one of the candidates deliberately exploits division as President Trump does. This year, an explosive presidential campaign and a furious confirmation battle are happening at the same time.

With a Republican president and a Republican majority in the Senate, Democrats have no real power in the court battle.

In the presidential race, only a small percentage of voters say they are still undecided (5 percent in Quinnipiac and Monmouth polls). Among voters who have decided, just 5 percent say they might change their minds according to Pew. 2020 will not be a campaign of persuasion. It will be a campaign of mobilization, with each side aiming to maximize turnout of its partisan base. You do that by exploiting fears, threats and intensely divisive issues.

A lot depends on whether the Senate floor vote on confirmation takes place before or after Election Day. President Trump is demanding a confirmation floor vote before Election Day. It would be the new recent world record if the Senate votes before Nov. 3, Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) said.

How will Democrats respond if the nomination is confirmed before the election? President Trump expects his opponents to be demoralized by defeat, but Democrats could just as well be infuriated and determined to take Trump down. Both reactions are plausible.

Suppose the confirmation vote is held after Election Day. Then everything might change, and not to President Trumps advantage. If Trump loses, a huge wall of public opposition to his nominee could materialize. Democrats will protest, saying, The people fired the president. How can the Senate confirm a crucial nomination by a lame duck president who has lost the mandate of the people?

President Trump would likely see his influence diminish with Republican senators who dont want to be identified with a loser particularly if Republicans lose their Senate majority as well as the White House. Then Trump could be seen as politically toxic the coronavirus of the GOP.

Bill Schneider is a professor at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University and author of Standoff: How America Became Ungovernable(Simon & Schuster).

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