Americas wild ‘World War III’ plan for Iran, and Israels part in it – Haaretz
It may sound fantastic now,and was probably not really feasible even then.
But according to the Pentagons own Joint Chiefs of Staff, sometime in the mid-1980s, American military planners wanted Israel to take part in a war which would start in Iran and spread to the Eastern Mediterranean, where the Israel Air Force would be tasked with striking Soviet ships and othermilitaryunits.
Irans bizarre but worrying espionage campaign against Israel: LISTEN
This comes not from some scoop-seeking scholar, but from the horses mouth. David B. Crist,theJoint ChiefsSenior Historian specializing in Iran and its 43-year conflict with eight U.S. administrations, is a Reserve Marine Corps Lieutenant Colonel,with combat deployments in the Middle East and Special Forces background.
He has been privy to secret contingency plans,has observed Irans activities in the Gulf and beyond and appears to be IDF-friendly, having being associated with the pro-Israel Washington Institute.
Recently, Crist uploaded to the Joint Chiefs website an unusual,even dramatic presentationwith an understated title: "U.S. Central Command Campaign Planning Against The Soviet Union, 1979-87." It was originally shown to the current Commanding General of CENTCOM, Frank McKenzie, a fellow Marine, and his officers.
Military history centers are not academically oriented, though they aimto offerthe most thorough research. Their mission is to provide todays cadre with case studies of past events, in order to distill relevant lessons for immediate and future use in either the same places or in similar dimensions of warfare.And this presentation is no exception. It offers a window into U.S. military strategic thinking about taking on Iran today and what Israels role would be in such an operation.
These days, it is quite routine for the Israeli Navy to practice interoperability with theU.S.sBahrain-based Fifth Fleet and for the IDF to train withU.S.fighter squadrons in exercises such as last weeks Desert Falcon, as part of its military relationship with the U.S.s CENTCOM, which watches over the Gulf. But this was not the case in the last quarter-century before themillennium, and it was definitely not imagined by most to bea partnershippointed against Russia.
Defense collaboration (rather than simply assistance) between the Pentagon and Tel AvivsKiryadefenseHQ began following the Yom Kippur War, picked up steam after the Camp David accords - when Egypt, too, joined the American orbit and took off momentarily under President Ronald Reagan, with Defense Minister Ariel Sharon signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Secretary of Defense CasperWeinberger.
Thisunprecedenteddocument reflected a tug of war between Washington, wishing to paint its relationship with Israel as anti-Soviet rather than anti-Arab, and Jerusalem,with an opposite policy, fearful of alienating Moscow.
This agreement was almost immediately cancelled when Israel annexed the Golan Heights. It was revived andupgradedwhen Yitzhak Shamir, as prime minister, and Moshe Arens, as foreign minister, replaced Menachem Begin and Sharon.
Washington welcomed them, along with Ehud Barak, then head of militaryintelligence,and hisplanning colleague Menachem Einan, for are-launch of talks and the setting up of mechanisms, protocols and joint projects, including the rare provision of pre-positioning sites for U.S. munitions in Israel for immediate availability in case of emergency. There were apparently at least six such sites, numbered 51-56, with 54 described as a 500-bed hospital for war casualties.
Reading Crists account, it now turns out that some key American officials, most prominently Assistant Secretary of Defense Richard Armitage, had creative ideas for taking therenewedpartnership to the next level.
Armitage, Colin Powells closest friend and later Deputy Secretary of State, forged a warm bond with Barak and Major General Uri Simhoni, the Defense Attache (who passed away last month, several weeks after their buddy, Powell).And there was a specific mission that would confirm their collaboration.
The Soviets were always suspected of harboring a plot to invade Iran, perhaps with help from the inside by the Communist-leaning Tudeh party. But following the Soviet incursionintoneighboring Afghanistan,and Khomeinis taking power in Tehran, vowing to export the Islamic revolution, the old scenario was refreshed.
Now,theSovietsmotive would be to prevent the spread of Khomeinism to the USSRs Muslimrepublics and Afghanistan,and to stop "the fragmentation of the Iranian state caused by internal strife or defeat" in the (1980-88) Iran-Iraq War.The Soviets interest in some form of control over Iran sprang from two core reasons: The first, irridentist/territorial, wanting to swallow up northern Iraninto then-Soviet controlledAzerbaijan, andthe second strategic: To have Persian Gulf bases for their fleet.
The "Large-Scale Soviet Invasion Plan" Crist found in the files showed arrows drawn south from Armenia and the Caspian Sea towards the capital, Tehran indicating the large-scale movement of Soviet military forces and then on to Isfahan, Khuzestan and Bandar Abbas,on the Gulf,with the invading forces drawn from a pool of "24-29 Mechanized or Armor Divisions, one Airborne Division and 700-1000 strike aircraft."
U.S. counter-strategy, according to Col. Crist, was "to deter the Soviets from invasion" byowning the capacity "to deploy and sustain a credible force to the region, with the clear indication that a Soviet attack on a vital American interest would mean war with the United States. If a conflict begins, be prepared to attack and defeat any Soviet effort to control the oil of the Middle East."
Also, and this is where Israel comes in,the U.S. would aim to "widen the conflict beyond just the Middle East to other areas where the U.S. and our allies hold military advantage." The documents quoted are fromDefense SecretaryWeinberger toJoint ChiefsChairman David Jones, an Air Forcegeneral, and vice versa.
This sounds likethe script for alimited version of World War III,with nuclear weaponsincluded. If the plan didn't call for Strategic Air Command strikes inside the Soviet Union,it did foreseeat leasttactical nuclear strikes on the USSR and Iran,shelling, mine-layingmines and "demolition packs" explosive charge carried onan infantrymans back, saboteur-style, but in this casecontaininganuclearcharge.
The "1004" plan proposed a so-called "Horizontal Escalation," escalating geographically andsandwiching Iran from the north and south,whereby American forces would operate from Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and a Saudi jumpboard into Iran.
The plan also envisages an intensive sabotage campaign, led by U.S. Special Forces working with the CIA, who would embrace "unconventional warfare to develop a resistance movement disrupting Soviet forces by blowing bridges and attacking their rear areas."
A further layer of U.S. allied militaries, frommoderate, pro-Western countries in the region, would "operate against Soviet client states, especially those with historic animosity" towards the U.S., such as Syria.
This, specifiesCrists documents, "would include Israel, who would insure the safety of the Suez Canal by striking Soviet forces in the Eastern Mediterranean."
While Israel was earlier drawn into dogfights with Soviet fighters over Egypt and struck transports bringing equipment to Syria, its leaders from Ben-Gurion to Eshkol and Golda to Dayan always commented thatthey hadno illusions regarding the IDFs ability to withstand a Soviet onslaught. But the American planners let their imagination run wild, and it had its uses for their Israeli counterparts.
"We went along with the simulation," recalled an Israeli defense official whohelda central role then, "because it helped foster a closer relationship with our professional opposite numbers, who up until that time were more reserved.
"Indeed, we looked at options stemming fromsuperpower conflict around Syria or Cyprus, with the possibility of our being drawn in and clashing with Sovietair ornaval units. It was a modular, multi-part scenario, potentially based around Iran as a flashpoint,but with other narratives as well. As is customary with military organizations, it is not a plan, per se, that is important, as itwouldinevitably have to adapt to circumstances, butit was an exercise inthe practice of planning, in this case together," Israelis and Americans.
This was the seed of what has by now blossomed into a forest. The Soviet Union disintegrated shortly thereafter, but Russia is back in force in Syria and Iran is a perennial headache, so while the plan unearthed by theJoint Chiefshistorian was never put to a test, it iscertainlytoo early to consign it to a museum display.
The Pentagons decision to give Crists seemingly confidential briefing wider distribution mayalso be a message of its own. It could beintended to orient moreU.S.officers towards the considerations and constraints involved ina potentialwar against Iran, withIsraels participation,or without it.In the reports own words, "[T]he geography has not changed. Any Iranian-centric conflict will confront the U.S.with similar challenges."
Conspiratorial mindswillalso see it as a signal aimeddirectlyat Tehran, translating mere saber-rattling rhetoric into concrete combat schemes,completewith assigned units and projected timelines.
Amir Oren, a veteran observer of Israeli, American and NATO military and political affairs, has written for Haaretz on defense and government for more than two decades. Twitter: @Rimanero
View post:
Americas wild 'World War III' plan for Iran, and Israels part in it - Haaretz
- PM: Iran dumbfounded by Israeli strikes, saw investment in proxies go down the tubes - The Times of Israel - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Iran could build nuclear weapon, Trump told by White House - The Telegraph - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- The year ahead in the Middle East: A weakened Iran has big implications for China - The Conversation - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- The Iran-led axis of resistance in the aftermath of Syrias upheaval - Al Jazeera English - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- PM vows escalated fight against Houthis; officials said urging direct attack on Iran - The Times of Israel - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Analysis: The Islamic State and Iran remain determined to attack the US - Long War Journal - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Khamenei says Iran does not have or need proxy forces in Middle East - The Times of Israel - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Iran plagued by energy crisis partially caused by strikes attributed to Israel - The Times of Israel - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- US imposes sanctions on Iran and Houthi-related targets - Reuters - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Christmas in Tehran During the 1979 Iran Hostage Crisis - The New Yorker - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Women Being Sent to the Gallows in Alarming Numbers in Iran - Center for Human Rights in Iran - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Trump Reportedly Offers To Hold High-level Nuclear Talks With Iran - i24NEWS - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Iran pauses the process to implement a new, stricter headscarf law for women, official says - The Associated Press - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Documents captured from Hamas reveal Iran's complex weapons smuggling network - The Jerusalem Post - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- UN pushes for Iran nuclear deal talks, says 'time of the essence' - Reuters.com - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Netanyahu: 'Just as we acted forcefully against Iran's axis of evil, we will act against Houthis' - The Jerusalem Post - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- The Middle East Is in Chaos. Iran Is Focused on the Veil. - Foreign Policy - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Iran expands weaponization capabilities critical for employing nuclear bomb - Fox News - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Iran: Only Three Days of Electricity and Gasoline Per Week - Iran Focus - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Iran celebrates 3rd anniversary of Yalda Nights UNESCO designation - Tehran Times - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Its proxies pummeled, Iran is suddenly more vulnerable than ever. Will it go nuclear? - The Times of Israel - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- FIFA hails all-women crowd of 45K at game in Iran - ESPN - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Two charged in connection with Iran-backed drone strike that killed 3 US troops in the Middle East - The Associated Press - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Syrians have every right to hate us Iranians | Iran International - - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- UN monitor says reviving Iran deal now irrelevant, since Tehran on cusp of nuke - The Times of Israel - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Syria has been liberated from Russia and Iran but outsiders still threaten its new freedom - The Guardian - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Western sabotage intended to create chaos in Iran - Tehran Times - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Iran throws its support behind Assad as rebels expand their shock offensive in Syria - NBC News - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- Iran says insecurity in Syria will spread beyond borders - - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- Iran to begin enriching uranium with thousands of advanced centrifuges, UN watchdog says - The Associated Press - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- Rebels in Syria take advantage of Israels successes against a weakened Iran axis - The Times of Israel - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- Avoiding the next front: Iraqs fight to stay out of the Israel-Iran conflict - European Council on Foreign Relations - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- How to Avoid a Nuclear Crisis with Iran - Stimson Center - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- Iran, Europeans test diplomacy with Trump term looming - Reuters - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- Iran says it will keep military advisers in Syria amid rebel advances - The Times of Israel - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- Trumps chance for a major breakthrough in Iran-West relations - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- Hezbollah killed his son. Now hes suing Iran for him and 46 other American victims - The Times of Israel - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- With Trump Returning and Hezbollah Weakened, Iran Strikes a Conciliatory Tone - The New York Times - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- Iran and Europe seek to break nuclear impasse before return of Trump - The Guardian - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- Saudi Arabia Strengthens Ties With Both US and Iran Before Trump - Bloomberg - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- British Fan of Homeland Series Is Convicted of Spying for Iran - The New York Times - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- Iran looks to invest $6B in Afghanistan as route to China: What to know - Al-Monitor - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- Daniel Khalife was a British soldier who spied for Iran and wanted to be a double agent - BBC.com - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- Iran-EAEU FTA to be implemented in early 2025 - Tehran Times - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- Amid lull in tit-for -tat missile exchange, Iran and Israel seek to control the online narrative - The Conversation - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- Rage Against the Regime: Iran review these stories of resistance are utterly astonishing - The Guardian - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- Iran hints at weaponization ahead of nuclear talks with Europe | Iran International - - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- What Iran and Hezbollah lost in war with Israel - - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- Israel and Iran Seemed on the Brink of a Bigger War. Whats Holding Them Back? - The New York Times - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Iran's Air1Air reprimanded over flight suspension - ch-aviation - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Pop icon Googoosh is a voice for women in Iran - DW (English) - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Israel kills wanted Hezbollah commander behind the establishment of Iraqs Iran-backed militias - Long War Journal - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Iran Braces for Trump Reset With Economy Buckling From Sanctions - Bloomberg - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Iran to hold nuclear talks with Britain, France, Germany on Nov. 29 - Kyodo News Plus - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Iran says it immediately activated new, advanced centrifuges after IAEA censure - The Times of Israel - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Iran preparing to respond to Israel's Oct. 26 attack - Khamenei's aide - - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- United Nations nuclear agency again condemns Iran for failing to fully cooperate - NPR - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Iran is preparing to respond to Israel adviser to Supreme Leader Khamenei - The Times of Israel - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Iran says it is activating new centrifuges after being condemned by UN nuclear watchdog - CNN - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Iran to "substantially increase" uranium enrichment capacity over IAEA rebuke led by U.S. and allies - CBS News - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Iran defies international pressure, increasing its stockpile of near weapons-grade uranium, UN says - The Associated Press - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Iran offers to cap sensitive uranium stock as IAEA resolution looms - Reuters - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Iran has ambitions in Western Sahara. Trump can contain them by bolstering ties with Morocco. - Atlantic Council - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Israeli rabbi kidnapped in UAE, sparking fears of Iran's involvement - - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Iran's President calls on Pope Francis to use influence to stop war in Middle East - Reuters - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- American-Israeli families sue Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah in federal court - Middle East Eye - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Norwegian guard at US Embassy in Oslo arrested over allegations of spying for Russia and Iran - CNN - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Iran categorically rejects allegations of involvement in murder of Abu Dhabi rabbi - The Times of Israel - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Iran: EU widens restrictive measures in view of Iran support of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and lists one individual and four... - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Student Charged With Spying on US Embassy for Russia, Iran - Newsweek - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Russia sends Yemeni mercenaries to fight in Ukraine after they were tricked into signing up for war by Iran-backed Houthis: report - New York Post - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Did We Do Enough? Airmen Heed Lessons from Their Air Victory over Iran - Air & Space Forces Magazine - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Guard at U.S. Embassy in Norway Accused of Spying for Russia and Iran - The New York Times - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Is Iran's Khamenei signaling readiness for new deal as Trump threat looms large? - Al-Monitor - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Iran signals willingness to halt stockpile expansion, Grossi says - World Nuclear News - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Iran set to launch advanced centrifuges after IAEA censure for noncooperation - The Times of Israel - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- The winds of change are blowing in Iran - The Spectator - November 24th, 2024 [November 24th, 2024]
- Iran says German-Iranian died before execution was reported - BBC.com - November 5th, 2024 [November 5th, 2024]
- Iran is now dangerously vulnerable to the consequences of another attack on Israel - Business Insider - November 5th, 2024 [November 5th, 2024]
- Federal agencies say Russia and Iran are ramping up influence campaigns targeting US voters - The Associated Press - November 5th, 2024 [November 5th, 2024]