Americas wild ‘World War III’ plan for Iran, and Israels part in it – Haaretz
It may sound fantastic now,and was probably not really feasible even then.
But according to the Pentagons own Joint Chiefs of Staff, sometime in the mid-1980s, American military planners wanted Israel to take part in a war which would start in Iran and spread to the Eastern Mediterranean, where the Israel Air Force would be tasked with striking Soviet ships and othermilitaryunits.
Irans bizarre but worrying espionage campaign against Israel: LISTEN
This comes not from some scoop-seeking scholar, but from the horses mouth. David B. Crist,theJoint ChiefsSenior Historian specializing in Iran and its 43-year conflict with eight U.S. administrations, is a Reserve Marine Corps Lieutenant Colonel,with combat deployments in the Middle East and Special Forces background.
He has been privy to secret contingency plans,has observed Irans activities in the Gulf and beyond and appears to be IDF-friendly, having being associated with the pro-Israel Washington Institute.
Recently, Crist uploaded to the Joint Chiefs website an unusual,even dramatic presentationwith an understated title: "U.S. Central Command Campaign Planning Against The Soviet Union, 1979-87." It was originally shown to the current Commanding General of CENTCOM, Frank McKenzie, a fellow Marine, and his officers.
Military history centers are not academically oriented, though they aimto offerthe most thorough research. Their mission is to provide todays cadre with case studies of past events, in order to distill relevant lessons for immediate and future use in either the same places or in similar dimensions of warfare.And this presentation is no exception. It offers a window into U.S. military strategic thinking about taking on Iran today and what Israels role would be in such an operation.
These days, it is quite routine for the Israeli Navy to practice interoperability with theU.S.sBahrain-based Fifth Fleet and for the IDF to train withU.S.fighter squadrons in exercises such as last weeks Desert Falcon, as part of its military relationship with the U.S.s CENTCOM, which watches over the Gulf. But this was not the case in the last quarter-century before themillennium, and it was definitely not imagined by most to bea partnershippointed against Russia.
Defense collaboration (rather than simply assistance) between the Pentagon and Tel AvivsKiryadefenseHQ began following the Yom Kippur War, picked up steam after the Camp David accords - when Egypt, too, joined the American orbit and took off momentarily under President Ronald Reagan, with Defense Minister Ariel Sharon signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Secretary of Defense CasperWeinberger.
Thisunprecedenteddocument reflected a tug of war between Washington, wishing to paint its relationship with Israel as anti-Soviet rather than anti-Arab, and Jerusalem,with an opposite policy, fearful of alienating Moscow.
This agreement was almost immediately cancelled when Israel annexed the Golan Heights. It was revived andupgradedwhen Yitzhak Shamir, as prime minister, and Moshe Arens, as foreign minister, replaced Menachem Begin and Sharon.
Washington welcomed them, along with Ehud Barak, then head of militaryintelligence,and hisplanning colleague Menachem Einan, for are-launch of talks and the setting up of mechanisms, protocols and joint projects, including the rare provision of pre-positioning sites for U.S. munitions in Israel for immediate availability in case of emergency. There were apparently at least six such sites, numbered 51-56, with 54 described as a 500-bed hospital for war casualties.
Reading Crists account, it now turns out that some key American officials, most prominently Assistant Secretary of Defense Richard Armitage, had creative ideas for taking therenewedpartnership to the next level.
Armitage, Colin Powells closest friend and later Deputy Secretary of State, forged a warm bond with Barak and Major General Uri Simhoni, the Defense Attache (who passed away last month, several weeks after their buddy, Powell).And there was a specific mission that would confirm their collaboration.
The Soviets were always suspected of harboring a plot to invade Iran, perhaps with help from the inside by the Communist-leaning Tudeh party. But following the Soviet incursionintoneighboring Afghanistan,and Khomeinis taking power in Tehran, vowing to export the Islamic revolution, the old scenario was refreshed.
Now,theSovietsmotive would be to prevent the spread of Khomeinism to the USSRs Muslimrepublics and Afghanistan,and to stop "the fragmentation of the Iranian state caused by internal strife or defeat" in the (1980-88) Iran-Iraq War.The Soviets interest in some form of control over Iran sprang from two core reasons: The first, irridentist/territorial, wanting to swallow up northern Iraninto then-Soviet controlledAzerbaijan, andthe second strategic: To have Persian Gulf bases for their fleet.
The "Large-Scale Soviet Invasion Plan" Crist found in the files showed arrows drawn south from Armenia and the Caspian Sea towards the capital, Tehran indicating the large-scale movement of Soviet military forces and then on to Isfahan, Khuzestan and Bandar Abbas,on the Gulf,with the invading forces drawn from a pool of "24-29 Mechanized or Armor Divisions, one Airborne Division and 700-1000 strike aircraft."
U.S. counter-strategy, according to Col. Crist, was "to deter the Soviets from invasion" byowning the capacity "to deploy and sustain a credible force to the region, with the clear indication that a Soviet attack on a vital American interest would mean war with the United States. If a conflict begins, be prepared to attack and defeat any Soviet effort to control the oil of the Middle East."
Also, and this is where Israel comes in,the U.S. would aim to "widen the conflict beyond just the Middle East to other areas where the U.S. and our allies hold military advantage." The documents quoted are fromDefense SecretaryWeinberger toJoint ChiefsChairman David Jones, an Air Forcegeneral, and vice versa.
This sounds likethe script for alimited version of World War III,with nuclear weaponsincluded. If the plan didn't call for Strategic Air Command strikes inside the Soviet Union,it did foreseeat leasttactical nuclear strikes on the USSR and Iran,shelling, mine-layingmines and "demolition packs" explosive charge carried onan infantrymans back, saboteur-style, but in this casecontaininganuclearcharge.
The "1004" plan proposed a so-called "Horizontal Escalation," escalating geographically andsandwiching Iran from the north and south,whereby American forces would operate from Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and a Saudi jumpboard into Iran.
The plan also envisages an intensive sabotage campaign, led by U.S. Special Forces working with the CIA, who would embrace "unconventional warfare to develop a resistance movement disrupting Soviet forces by blowing bridges and attacking their rear areas."
A further layer of U.S. allied militaries, frommoderate, pro-Western countries in the region, would "operate against Soviet client states, especially those with historic animosity" towards the U.S., such as Syria.
This, specifiesCrists documents, "would include Israel, who would insure the safety of the Suez Canal by striking Soviet forces in the Eastern Mediterranean."
While Israel was earlier drawn into dogfights with Soviet fighters over Egypt and struck transports bringing equipment to Syria, its leaders from Ben-Gurion to Eshkol and Golda to Dayan always commented thatthey hadno illusions regarding the IDFs ability to withstand a Soviet onslaught. But the American planners let their imagination run wild, and it had its uses for their Israeli counterparts.
"We went along with the simulation," recalled an Israeli defense official whohelda central role then, "because it helped foster a closer relationship with our professional opposite numbers, who up until that time were more reserved.
"Indeed, we looked at options stemming fromsuperpower conflict around Syria or Cyprus, with the possibility of our being drawn in and clashing with Sovietair ornaval units. It was a modular, multi-part scenario, potentially based around Iran as a flashpoint,but with other narratives as well. As is customary with military organizations, it is not a plan, per se, that is important, as itwouldinevitably have to adapt to circumstances, butit was an exercise inthe practice of planning, in this case together," Israelis and Americans.
This was the seed of what has by now blossomed into a forest. The Soviet Union disintegrated shortly thereafter, but Russia is back in force in Syria and Iran is a perennial headache, so while the plan unearthed by theJoint Chiefshistorian was never put to a test, it iscertainlytoo early to consign it to a museum display.
The Pentagons decision to give Crists seemingly confidential briefing wider distribution mayalso be a message of its own. It could beintended to orient moreU.S.officers towards the considerations and constraints involved ina potentialwar against Iran, withIsraels participation,or without it.In the reports own words, "[T]he geography has not changed. Any Iranian-centric conflict will confront the U.S.with similar challenges."
Conspiratorial mindswillalso see it as a signal aimeddirectlyat Tehran, translating mere saber-rattling rhetoric into concrete combat schemes,completewith assigned units and projected timelines.
Amir Oren, a veteran observer of Israeli, American and NATO military and political affairs, has written for Haaretz on defense and government for more than two decades. Twitter: @Rimanero
View post:
Americas wild 'World War III' plan for Iran, and Israels part in it - Haaretz
- Khamenei aide: Iran will have no choice but to acquire nukes if attacked - The Times of Israel - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- How dangerous are the tensions between the US and Iran? - Al Jazeera - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Russia condemns Trumps threat to bomb Iran over nuclear standoff - Anadolu Ajans - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Iran threatens preemptive strike on base housing US bombers, report says - Ynetnews - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Exclusive: Iran has readied missiles for potential response amid Trump's escalating threats - Tehran Times - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Iran's Khamenei vows retaliation if Trump threat enacted - DW - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Iran has rejected direct negotiations with the US in response to Trumps letter - AP News - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- US sanctions entities in Iran, China, UAE, for assisting Tehran with weapons procurement - The Times of Israel - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Khamenei adviser says Iran will have no choice but to get nuclear weapon if attacked - The Times of Israel - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- A Ticking Bomb: Israeli Eliminates Iran-Linked Terrorist in Beirut - Foundation for Defense of Democracies - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- 'Will have no choice': Iran warns it may have to acquire nuclear weapons if attacked - Times of India - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Trump threatens there will be bombing if Iran fails to make deal on nukes - The Times of Israel - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Suspected missile cargo ship arrives in Iran from China as nuclear tensions escalate - Newsweek - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Trump threatens to bomb Iran if nuclear deal cant be reached - Politico - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Trump warns Iran could see 'bombing the likes of which they have never seen' - www.israelhayom.com - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Iran rejects direct nuclear talks with Trump, open to indirect negotiations - Al Jazeera - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Iran's Supreme Leader Responds to Trump Bombing Threat - Newsweek - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Is Iran on a collision course with the west? - Financial Times - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Trump says 'there will be bombing' if Iran does not make nuclear deal - USA Today - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Mapped: These are the nuclear sites in Iran the US and Israel could hit if talks fail - Ynetnews - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Trump warns Iran of bombing like never seen before if no deal reached - - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- IDF reorganizes units responsible for Iran planning - The Times of Israel - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Trump threatens to bomb Iran unless deal on nuclear program is reached - The Independent - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Trump's threat to Iran that 'there will be bombing' comes amid new B-2 stealth bomber moves - Business Insider - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Israel and the United States are Ready to Strike Iran - The National Interest - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Two Carriers in the Middle East: Implications for the Houthis, Iran, and U.S. Force Readiness - The Washington Institute - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Iran Is Freaked: Trump and Israel Could Launch a Joint Strike - 19FortyFive - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Trump's threat to Iran that 'there will be bombing' comes amid new B-2 stealth bomber moves - MSN - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Iran rejects offer of direct US negotiations over rapidly growing nuclear program - New York Post - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Trump's threat to Iran that 'there will be bombing' comes amid new B-2 stealth bomber moves - Yahoo - April 1st, 2025 [April 1st, 2025]
- Trumps Middle East strategy is all about striking an Iran deal. Gaza could get in the way. - Atlantic Council - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- US Threatens 'All Options on the Table' for Iran - Newsweek - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Trump's offer of talks with Iran aims to avoid military action, US envoy says - Reuters - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Trumps Advisers Are Divided on Iran. Which Way Is the President Leaning? - The FP - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Iranians discuss Trump envoys interest in visiting Tehran | Iran International - - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Iran's top medical body warns of skilled staff exodus - - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Iran says it will consider 'opportunities' as well as threats in Trump letter - Reuters - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Khamenei says Houthis act independently, warns against US strikes on Iran - The Times of Israel - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Iran condemns US threats to use force and vows to defend its sovereignty - The Times of Israel - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Iran's Khamenei says US threats 'will get them nowhere' - FRANCE 24 English - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Iran's Supreme Leader Threatens US with "Severe Blow" - Newsweek - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Iran's supreme leader says Trump administration threats over nuclear program "will get them nowhere" - CBS News - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Iran open to indirect talks with US, rejects direct negotiations under pressure - Arutz Sheva - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- How a war with Iran (for Israel) could crash the US economy - The Cradle - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Iran has 'got to address that fact that the world they knew is over': State Department spox - Fox Business - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- No one can even think of attack on Iran, FM asserts - Tehran Times - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- The Islamic Republic of Iran only understands one language: 'Language of pressure,' journalist say - Fox Business - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- French citizen Olivier Grondeau is freed after over 880 days in a prison in Iran - The Associated Press - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Iran's leader warns US could receive 'severe slaps' following Trump's threats to Houthis - Fox News - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- US and Israel Have Laid the Groundwork for War With Iran. Will Trump Set It Off? - Truthout - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Senior Saudi Journalist Tariq Al-Homayed: Iran Must Stop Its Expansion Project And Pursuit Of Nuclear Weapons, End The Futile Wars Waged By Its... - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Chinas five-point proposition on the Iran nuclear issue - Tehran Times - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Iran says its open to indirect negotiations with US over nuclear program - The Times of Israel - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Report: Trump letter to Iran set 2-month deadline to reach nuclear deal - The Times of Israel - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Why wont Britain take the threat of Iran seriously? - The Times - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Trump drops two-month deadline on nuclear deal with Iran - The Jerusalem Post - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Trump's tactics with Canada are pushing the prize of an Iran nuclear deal further away - The National - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- What to do with Iran and its Houthi proxies: Attack! - The Hill - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- US envoy Witkoff says Trump wants to build trust with Iran to avoid armed conflict - The National - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Twilight of the Islamic Republic: The rocky road to regime change in Iran has begun - opinion - The Jerusalem Post - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Iran leader rejects nuclear talks with US as Trump letter arrives - BBC.com - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Iraq says seeking alternatives to Iran gas - Yahoo - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- What to know about tensions between Iran and the US as Trump sends a letter to its supreme leader - The Associated Press - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- 'This threat is unwise': Iran's Khamenei cautions Trump against potential military action - FRANCE 24 English - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Iran Could Lose Iraq: The Axis of Resistance Is Primed to Take Another Hit - Foreign Affairs Magazine - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Attacking Iran's Nuclear Program: The Complex Calculus of Preventive Action - The Washington Institute - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- An Emirati diplomat identified as having a letter from Trump meets with Iran's foreign minister - The Associated Press - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- China, Russia, Iran to hold nuclear talks in Beijing on Friday - Reuters - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Iran's President to Trump: I will not negotiate, 'do whatever the hell you want' - Reuters - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Iran's president refuses talks, tells Trump 'do whatever the hell you want' - Middle East Eye - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- UAE official delivers to Iran letter from Trump urging nuclear talks - The Times of Israel - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- What to know about tensions between Iran and the US as Trump sends a letter to its supreme leader - Greenville Daily Reflector - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Iraq says seeking alternatives to Iran gas - Wyoming News Now - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- What to know about tensions between Iran and the US as Trump sends a letter to its supreme leader - Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Beach turns bright red in Iran: 5 things about bizarre 'blood rain' phenomenon that stunned internet - Hindustan Times - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- What to know about tensions between Iran and the US as Trump sends a letter to its supreme leader - Cecil Daily - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Iran Tells Trump: "Do Whatever The Hell You Want." - Newsweek - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Striking the head: Israel's Iran strategy | Daily Sabah - Daily Sabah - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Iran's supreme leader rejects talks with the U.S., says it's "not aimed at solving problems" - CBS News - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Iran steps up crackdown on female singers with social media bans | Iran International - - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]