Mediaboss Marketing

OPINION:

Operating on the nonsensical policy that anything former President Donald Trump did should be reversed, the Biden administration reengaged in indirect talks with Iran to return to the disastrous 2015 nuclear deal framework.

Sending the worst possible negotiator, Bob Malley, to Vienna, President Biden promised the American people the U.S. would return to the original agreement and get Iran to halt its ballistic missile program and end its support to terrorist operations in the Middle East. This effort has apparently failed, even as the U.S. was willing to concede to almost all of Irans demands.

Here, Iran has engaged in an extortion effort as a price for entering new talks, demanding the U.S. release of $10 billion of frozen Iranian funds to prove the seriousness of its intentions. In addition to $3.5 billion already released as a gesture of goodwill, Mr. Biden had already extended the waiver on sanctions on Iranian oil.

Iran has also demanded a guarantee the U.S. would not withdraw from any future agreement, which is absurd. Even Iran understands Mr. Biden cant commit to such a demand as a new nuclear deal is a political understanding and not a legally binding treaty approved by the Senate. Nobody from either party believes such an agreement could ever gain Senate approval. If another Republican takes office after Mr. Biden, Iran knows that the U.S. would likely withdraw again.

The new ultra-conservative Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has taken a hard line in the negotiations and has been unwilling to compromise on anything. If Mr. Raisi obtains anything less than his maximum demands, it will appear as capitulation, not compromise, and hurt his chance of becoming supreme leader, his highest priority.

Iran recognizes Mr. Biden is desperate for an agreement at almost any cost, which he can portray as a win. Fortunately, Mr. Bidens critics and even some mainstream media see this as well and arent willing to let him cave in on every issue entirely. Reflecting this reality, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan was ominous when speaking about the negotiations saying, Its not going well and that, We do not yet have a pathway back into the JCPOA.

Some Democrats have recognized diplomacy was moving backward, as Irans representatives in Vienna made new demands while retracting previous concessions. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has even noted that the U.S. would not accept an approach where Iran stalls in the talks and advances its nuclear program. The Vienna negotiations just became a cover for Iranian progress toward a threshold nuclear weapons capability.

Unfortunately, the solution suggested by these Democrats is a fanciful delusion. They believe a diplomatic effort to resolve this crisis can be achieved by restoring Irans fear that its current nuclear path will trigger the use of force by the U.S.

Their recommendation that the U.S. military engages in exercises that instill fear into the Iranian leadership is not realistic. The Iranians and few in the U.S. believe Mr. Biden will ever use force against Iran or anyplace else. Here too, Mr. Bidens rhetoric that all options are on the table only rings hollow.

Saber rattling has not been limited to the U.S. Israel has been very public about reviving its planning efforts for war with Iran and potential airstrikes against the Iranian nuclear facilities. There is no realistic scenario for Israel undertaking such a strike or that it could be successful.

Israeli Chief of General Staff Aviv Kochavi sees the military option against Iran as an impractical scenario. Previously, the Israelis believed that the U.S. under Mr. Trump would do the work for them with pressure and crippling sanctions that would cause the regimes collapse. Clearly, this did not happen.

Israel has been focused on developing defensive plans for warning, detecting and intercepting Iranian drones. It could become a key player and asset for regional states under threat of these drones. In the future, these means of detection could also be deployed in the Gulf states, providing early warning of drone attacks a possible solution against the long-term threat of Iranian ballistic missiles.

Currently, Israel continues to engage in covert operations within Iran, targeting nuclear scientists and facilities with limited success in delaying the program. Recent cyberattacks on Iranian gas stations were less successful. Some have suggested that such covert operations be increased but fail to understand that such activities do not scale. The resources and personnel needed to greatly expand them dont exist and wont stop the Iranian program.

Iran uses its operatives and proxies to attack the U.S. and its allies, largely in Syria and Iraq. Most recently, two attacks were attributed to Iran and its Shiite militias the drone attack against the U.S. base in al-Tanf in eastern Syria and on the home of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi. The U.S. has responded by striking Iranian weapons depots in Syria and Iranian drones but has not engaged Iranian forces directly.

For now, there is a tacit acceptance that there will be no new nuclear agreement. Iran may approach or cross the threshold in becoming a nuclear power, and that Plan B may well consist of effective defensive technologies. Added to this will need new and realistic thinking about how deterrence can be applied to this critical scenario. Without some realistic thinking, the Middle East may face a prospect nobody wants.

Abraham Wagner has served in several national security positions, including the NSC Staff under Presidents Nixon and Ford. He is the author of the recent book Henry Kissinger: Pragmatic Statesman in Hostile Times.

Read more:
Failure in the Iran nuclear talks - Washington Times