How the Iran-Iraq war will shape the region for decades to come – Brookings Institution
Forty years ago, a major war between Iran and Iraq set the stage for far-reaching and lasting regional dynamics. The conflict which began in September 1980 when Saddam Hussein invaded Iran, and ended in a stalemate in 1988 was the nascent Islamic Republics first major military test. It was an existential battle for the Iranian leadership, coming just one year after the 1979 revolution in Iran. The war claimed at least one million lives.
The legacies of the war are numerous. In the decades since, Iran has developed a marked capacity to mobilize Shiite communities across the region, penetrating previously impervious political and ideological spaces, particularly in Iraq but also in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Moreover, it was in Iraq, during the formative stages of the war, that the Islamic Republic first started to implement a proxy network, one that has expanded region-wide (particularly in Syria and Yemen) in recent years. Finally, in shaping the political and foreign policy outlook of todays leadership in Iran and in Gulf Arab states, the war additionally sowed the seeds for current geopolitical rivalries that have hampered efforts to secure durable regional peace.
A key dynamic during the war and one that would continue in the decades afterward was Irans mobilization of Iraqi Shiite opposition groups. Tehran extended its support to other opposition groups, like the Kurds, but it was particularly focused on spurring a Shiite insurgency campaign within Iraq, encouraging mass defections from the Iraqi military, and trying to trigger an uprising among the majority-Shiite population. That was to no avail. Revolutionary fervor in Iran was instrumental to Tehrans ability to push back against an enemy that had superior technological capabilities and a plethora of backers, including the U.S., its allies in the West, and the Gulf Arab states but it could not inspire a similar response in Iraq.
The opposition groups and fighters Iran backed were immensely divided and lacked battlefield experience or discipline. The international community labeled them fundamentalist Shiite Islamist terrorists, and the Baath regime had an impressive capacity to repress and co-opt, as well as insulate its armed forces from mass defections.
The vast majority of Shiite personnel within the Iraqi army along with Sunnis fought loyally during the war. This was not out of loyalty to the regime, necessarily, but to prevent Iraq from becoming colonized by Iran or from following in its theocratic footsteps. Iran-aligned Shiite opposition groups, for their part, emphasized in their publications that colonization would not happen, and they framed the war not as a religious campaign but a campaign to overthrow the Tikriti gang (a reference to Saddam Husseins hometown and that of many of his closest confidantes and subordinates).
As I have detailed elsewhere, Iraqs Shiites failed to emulate their revolutionary counterparts in Iran and rise up against the Baath regime. In his book The Shiite Movement in Iraq, the late Iraqi sociologist Faleh Abdul-Jabar argued that such opposition movements failed because they did not sufficiently nationalize their cause. Iraqs Shiite Islamist movements were forced into exile and integrated into the Iranian war effort, appearing internationalist with a national sidetrack to audiences back home; for Irans Islamic leaders, the focus was the reverse. As Abdul-Jabar contended, this isolated Iraqs Shiite opposition groups from the mainstream of Iraqi patriotism, which emerged during the Iraq-Iran war and was embraced by the majority of the Shiis who fought Iran.
Despite the best efforts of Iran and its Iraqi partners who even recruited and mobilized Iraqi military defectors and prisoners of war to establish the Badr Brigade militia they did not come remotely close to overthrowing the Baath regime. They were outmatched by Saddams multi-faceted strategy of appeasing and punishing the Shiite community. A charm offensive by the regime included refurbishing and allocating large sums to the holy shrine cities. Saddam stressed the Arab identity of Shiism. He deployed Shiite symbolism throughout the war effort, claiming to be a descendant of Imam Ali and the Prophet Muhammad. Saddam even made Imam Alis birthday an Iraqi national holiday. Indeed, Saddam cunningly became more Shiite as war with Iran continued.
In other words, it has taken some time, failure, and painful lessons for Iran to command the proxy network that it does today. From Tehrans perspective, this has been essential to ensuring that Irans international isolation felt acutely during the war would not become an existential issue again. While Irans nuclear ambitions may yet be curtailed, its vast armed proxy network is perhaps its single most important defense and deterrence capability, and arguably the most transformational legacy of the war. This network, overseen by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has been central to the Islamic Republics ability to contain, deter, or eliminate its external rivals.
It was during the Iran-Iraq war that Iran established its single most important foreign legion: Lebanons Hezbollah. Since its creation in 1982, Hezbollah has achieved a supra-state status in Lebanon, superseding state institutions. It has also become indispensable to Irans expansionist ambitions and critical to Tehrans ability to mobilize, establish, and train militia groups across the region. Hezbollah has itself established affiliates across the region in the years since, with reverberations across conflict theaters. Hezbollah has outgrown its sponsor in this respect.
In Iraq, the Badr Brigade is currently Iraqs most powerful paramilitary force: It controls the Interior Ministry and has wide-ranging influence across Iraqs institutions. It dominates the 100,000-plus Popular Mobilization Force, and has extended its reach into Syria to help prop up Bashar Assads regime. The organization developed its abilities on the battlefield, its capacity to recruit willing fighters, and its ability to subvert state institutions during the war with Iraq. Hezbollah and the Badr Brigade would not be what they are today were it not for the painful experiences, lessons, and losses of the Iran-Iraq war.
The war shaped the outlook of many of Irans current decisionmakers. Its supreme leader today, Ayatollah Khamenei, was Irans president at the time. Its president today, Hassan Rouhani, was then the commander-in-chief of Irans Air Defense. The leadership of the current IRGC Irans most powerful military force, and an entity that Khamenei helped form made their names during the war. This includes the former head of its elite Quds force, Qassem Soleimani, who spearheaded Irans vast network of proxies over the past two decades, until his assassination by the U.S. in January. More broadly, the war helped solidify the foundational myth of the Islamic Republic. In the aftermath of a revolution that was driven by disparate political forces, the conflict enhanced the new regimes ability to consolidate its hold on power.
Today, Iranian leaders continue to stress how internationally isolated Iran was in the aftermath of its revolution, left on its own as a nascent government to confront Iraqs tanks and chemical weapons and U.S. and Western support for Saddam. Incidents like the mistaken 1988 U.S. downing of an Iran Air flight, which killed almost 300 innocent Iranians, reinforced the notion that the Islamic Republic had no allies and that the West was bent on Irans demise. From Tehrans perspective, this legacy of isolation necessitates its pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles and, of course, its continued deployment of proxy groups outside of its borders.
The emergence of a Shiite theocracy in Iran and the subsequent eight-year war created regional peace and security contours that shape contestations in the region today. For instance, Tehran instructed its proxies to carry out what were the first major contemporary suicide terrorist attacks, including the 1981 bombing of the Iraqi embassy in Beirut and Hezbollahs attack on the American Marine barracks in Lebanon. In 1983, members of Iraqs Islamic Dawa Party which was Iraqs ruling party from 2006 to 2018 carried out suicide terrorist attacks in Kuwait, targeting the U.S. and French embassies, and was complicit in a series of other high-profile attacks in the region. Iranian proxies and Shiite Islamist groups were thus among the early adopters of suicide bombs, which since became a standard tool of warfare by jihadi movements.
Thus, Iran took the war to the Gulf Arab states, calling on their Shiite populations to rise up against their governments. Gulf monarchies, in turn, came to see Irans new leadership as an existential threat, which in turn prompted Saudi Arabia to unleash its own proselytizing brand of fundamental Sunni Islam and support for groups that could mount a pushback against Irans encroachment. The Gulf monarchies have since increasingly viewed their relationship with Tehran through the prism of their own restive Shiite communities, communities that have long-standing political, socio-cultural, and religious ties to Shiite centers of power and influence elsewhere in the region. These action-reaction dynamics are a key part of why the contemporary Middle East is divided and why achieving lasting stability in the region has so far proved insurmountable.
Today, the strategic calculus in many regional capitals is rooted in these historical episodes of conflict and tumult, which has diminished the prospects of a durable peace. After the 2003 invasion of Iraq, it was precisely the legacies, lessons, and a sense of unfinished business that contributed to the multitude of sectarian conflicts. The ongoing battle for Iraqs political order has pitted those Shiite Islamist political actors who were backed or established by Iran during the war against Arab Sunni actors with long-standing relations with the Arab Gulf.
Saddam Hussein and others in Baghdad saw an invasion of Iran as a historic opportunity to transform Iraqs regional standing, making it the true pan-Arab power it had longed to become, as Baath regime records captured by the U.S. after the 2003 invasion indicate. Yet, for Iraq and its Baath regime, the war and its second-order effects had a cumulative, harmful impact. In the decades since, Iraq and its people have experienced bankruptcy, destitution, and more conflict.
As the unfinished business of the war continues to play out, the proxy problem is a key area to watch. Iran started this approach during the war, learned lessons from its failure then, and quickly proved able to successfully promote proxies elsewhere. The reverberations of that approach and of its devastating consequences are central to the challenges facing the Middle East now.
Read more here:
How the Iran-Iraq war will shape the region for decades to come - Brookings Institution
- Exclusive: Top U.S. general makes unannounced Middle East trip as Iran threat looms - Reuters - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Iran's Guard leader reiterated pledge of 'revenge' against Israel shortly before planned Hezbollah attack - The Times of Israel - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Sen. Lindsey Graham wants Israel to warn Iran: Were going to blow up your oil refineries - New York Post - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Iran: Alarming Surge in Executions - Human Rights Watch - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Iran's hard-line parliament approves all members of president's Cabinet, first time since 2001 - The Associated Press - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Democratic candidate Harris vows to be tough against Iran | Iran International - - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Iran signals promised strike on Israel may not be imminent - The Washington Post - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Iran warns wait for retaliation against Israel 'could be long' - NBC News - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Why Iran and Hezbollah have not yet responded to Israel's assassinations - Middle East Eye - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Iran says it will not take hasty action against Israel for killing of Hamas political leader - CNN - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Iran shuts down the last language institute recognized by the German Embassy - The Associated Press - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Iran and Hezbollah vowed revenge against Israel. Why hasnt it come? - Los Angeles Times - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Keeping the Middle East on Edge: Why Iran Threatens to Retaliate Against Israeland Why It Has Not Yet Done So - United States Military Academy West... - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- US intelligence officials say Iran is to blame for hacks targeting Trump, Biden-Harris campaigns - The Associated Press - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Opinion | Bidens Show of Force and Iran - The Wall Street Journal - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Iran to boost ties with Japan to address regional crisis: Araghchi - Kyodo News Plus - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Bus of Pilgrims From Pakistan Crashes in Iran, Killing at Least 28 - The New York Times - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Iran is playing the game that they are not connected to Hezbollah: Danny Danon - Fox News - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Researchers: Iran's scientific modeling likely influenced US assessment of Tehran's nuclear program - Voice of America - VOA News - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- U.S. intelligence officials warn of Iran's attempts to interfere in presidential election - CBS News - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Weather, weight caused helicopter crash that killed Iran's Raisi, Fars says - Voice of America - VOA News - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Pro-Palestine hacking group banned on X as US criticizes Iran over cyberattacks - The Record from Recorded Future News - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- With $20 Billion Weapons Deal, U.S. Aims to Help Israel and Deter Iran - The New York Times - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- FBI concludes Iran tried to hack campaigns of Trump, Biden-Harris - The Washington Post - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Iran Freaked Out: F-22 Raptor Flew Under Iran's Fighter Jet 'Undetected' - The National Interest Online - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Video: Video Shows the Aftermath of a Bus Crash in Iran that Killed Dozens - The New York Times - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Opinion | From Iran and Russia, the disinformation is now. The target: America. - The Washington Post - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- In reversal, Israel said to now believe Iran plans to attack in next few days - The Times of Israel - August 11th, 2024 [August 11th, 2024]
- Cotton slams Harris as 'naive' on Iran, blasts VP for not being tough on Hamas - Fox News - August 11th, 2024 [August 11th, 2024]
- Exclusive: Iran to deliver hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia soon, intel sources say - Reuters - August 11th, 2024 [August 11th, 2024]
- Iran Targeting 2024 US Election - Microsoft On the Issues - Microsoft - August 11th, 2024 [August 11th, 2024]
- Israeli intelligence suggests Iran will retaliate within days: Report - NewsNation Now - August 11th, 2024 [August 11th, 2024]
- These are the goals Iran wants to achieve by attacking Israel - interview - The Jerusalem Post - August 11th, 2024 [August 11th, 2024]
- Iran expected to attack Israel in the coming days in retaliation for Hamas chief's assassination - New York Post - August 11th, 2024 [August 11th, 2024]
- Trump blames Iran for email hack and says only publicly available information stolen - The Guardian US - August 11th, 2024 [August 11th, 2024]
- The Trump campaign says its emails were hacked and suggests Iran may be to blame - NPR - August 11th, 2024 [August 11th, 2024]
- Israeli Experts Believe Iran Carefully Weighing Its Options as Its Retaliation Stalls - The Media Line - August 11th, 2024 [August 11th, 2024]
- Iran is accelerating cyber activity that appears meant to influence the US election, Microsoft says - The Associated Press - August 11th, 2024 [August 11th, 2024]
- Biden saying 'Don't' and other threats seemingly fail to deter Iran as more US Mideast bases hit - Fox News - August 11th, 2024 [August 11th, 2024]
- Israeli intel believes Iran will attack directly within days - The Jerusalem Post - August 11th, 2024 [August 11th, 2024]
- Why does Iran keep sending amateurs to conduct assassinations in the U.S.? - NBC News - August 11th, 2024 [August 11th, 2024]
- Iran says Israel retaliation won't be to 'detriment' of Gaza cease-fire - Al-Monitor - August 11th, 2024 [August 11th, 2024]
- Pakistani man with ties to Iran is charged in plot to carry out political assassinations on US soil - The Associated Press - August 11th, 2024 [August 11th, 2024]
- Israel Prepares for Expected Attacks by Iran and Hezbollah - The New York Times - August 11th, 2024 [August 11th, 2024]
- Iran keeps region guessing as it mulls revenge attack on Israel - BBC.com - August 11th, 2024 [August 11th, 2024]
- Haniyehs Killing Could Boomerang and Help Iran - Stimson Center - August 11th, 2024 [August 11th, 2024]
- Iran could rethink Israel attack amid strong diplomatic pressure from US report - The Times of Israel - August 7th, 2024 [August 7th, 2024]
- Putin asks Iran to avoid civilian casualties in Israel response, sources say - Reuters - August 7th, 2024 [August 7th, 2024]
- Americas reckless Iran policy has Middle East on brink of war. Only one thing can pull us back now - Fox News - August 7th, 2024 [August 7th, 2024]
- Pakistani man with ties to Iran is charged in U.S. political assassination plot - PBS NewsHour - August 7th, 2024 [August 7th, 2024]
- Middle East crisis: US warns Israel and Iran that conflict must not escalate as it happened - The Guardian - August 7th, 2024 [August 7th, 2024]
- Report: Israel could preemptively strike Iran if intelligence shows attack is imminent - The Times of Israel - August 7th, 2024 [August 7th, 2024]
- Dont push it: US, allies said urging Israel to limit response to expected Iran attack - The Times of Israel - August 7th, 2024 [August 7th, 2024]
- Scoop: Blinken told G7 Iran and Hezbollah could attack Israel in next 24 hours - Axios - August 5th, 2024 [August 5th, 2024]
- US said to believe Iran attack on Israel imminent, Biden to hold situation room meeting - The Times of Israel - August 5th, 2024 [August 5th, 2024]
- Iran said to dismiss US, Arab calls for restraint even if it sparks war - The Times of Israel - August 5th, 2024 [August 5th, 2024]
- Netanyahu warns Iran: We are ready, well exact a heavy price for any aggression - The Times of Israel - August 5th, 2024 [August 5th, 2024]
- Top Jordanian diplomat makes rare visit to Iran as fears of wider regional war soar - PBS NewsHour - August 5th, 2024 [August 5th, 2024]
- Israeli shares slide and the shekel weakens amid fears of a retaliatory Iran attack - The Times of Israel - August 5th, 2024 [August 5th, 2024]
- Israel braces for Iran attack as US works to revive coalition that foiled April assault - The Times of Israel - August 5th, 2024 [August 5th, 2024]
- US sending more fighter jets and warships to Mideast amid threats from Iran-led axis - The Times of Israel - August 3rd, 2024 [August 3rd, 2024]
- Iran Begins The Purge After Hamas Chief's Assassination In Tehran - NDTV - August 3rd, 2024 [August 3rd, 2024]
- French citizens visiting Iran advised to leave 'as soon as possible,' in first warning over Tehran since tensions spiked - The Times of Israel - August 3rd, 2024 [August 3rd, 2024]
- Iran-led axis likely to launch joint attack, but cant reverse Israeli gains in Gaza - The Times of Israel - August 1st, 2024 [August 1st, 2024]
- For Iran and Hezbollah, little room for error in response to Israeli strikes - The Times of Israel - August 1st, 2024 [August 1st, 2024]
- 'Pins and needles': Iran likely to retaliate for killing of Hamas leader, but extent is unclear, expert says - ABC News - August 1st, 2024 [August 1st, 2024]
- Killings of Hamas leader in Iran and Hezbollah commander in Beirut fuel fears that Israel-Gaza war will spread - CBS News - August 1st, 2024 [August 1st, 2024]
- Who are the main contenders to be Iran's next president? - The Economist - June 12th, 2024 [June 12th, 2024]
- The West has a 15-month opportunity for a new nuclear deal with Iran that precludes an Iranian Bomb - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists - June 12th, 2024 [June 12th, 2024]
- Artist reveals mural celebrating Iran's women, life, freedom movement - Israel News - The Jerusalem Post - June 12th, 2024 [June 12th, 2024]
- Iran Names Six Candidates for President, Including Parliament Speaker - The New York Times - June 12th, 2024 [June 12th, 2024]
- Iran's Regional Influence And Military Muscle: Growing Military Capabilities And Role As Regional Power OpEd - Eurasia Review - June 12th, 2024 [June 12th, 2024]
- Iran hopes to finalize 20-year pact with Russia as Bagheri Kani meets Lavrov - Al-Monitor - June 12th, 2024 [June 12th, 2024]
- Unmasking Iran's strategy to take over the Middle East - Ynetnews - June 12th, 2024 [June 12th, 2024]
- Shia Afghans are being brought to Iran to make up for the lack of religious Iranians - Atlantic Council - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Iran: meet the men and women lining up to contest the early presidential election - The Conversation Indonesia - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Is an American of Indian Descent Raised in Iran and Who Held Iranian Citizenship Indian or Iranian for Affirmative ... - Reason - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- China, Russia and Iran call on the West to restore nuclear deal - Peoples Dispatch - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Iran's uranium stockpile grows following three years of denied access - UN News - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Operating In The 'Grayzone': The Pro-Hamas Outlet Being Funded By Iran And Russia - I24NEWS - i24NEWS - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]