If Trump Undermines the Iran Deal – The Atlantic
There was a lot of news lost at the end of last week when Sean Spicer, the hapless White House press secretary, finally resigned. In any other news cycle, the revelation that Jared Kushner forgot about $10 million in assets on his ethics forms (weve all been there) or a U.S. senate candidate siding with members of the alt-right over the Anti-Defamation League would have garnered more attention.
One story that should not slip underneath the radar, however, is a report that the Trump administration has apparently entrusted a small group at the White House to undermine the Iran nuclear accords over the objections of the Departments of State and Defense.
The Worst Deal Ever That Actually Wasnt
The news says a lot about two very narrow ways in which the administration sees not only Iran but the greater world. First, some members of the administration have failed to see the admittedly very real challenges presented by Iran outside the binary U.S.-Iranian contest for influence in the Middle East. Second, and most importantly, some members of the administration still do not understand that much of what the United States has been able to accomplish over the past two decades has been achieved through coalitions that could actively resist U.S. efforts to roll back those accomplishments.
Many incoming members of the Trump administration felt strongly that the Obama administrationand perhaps even the Bush administration before itdropped the ball on meeting the challenges posed by Iran. They have half a point. Iran has posed three undeniable challenges to the United States and its partners since the September 11th attacks, and those challenges include its nuclear program, its conventional arms build-up, and its asymmetric activities supporting proxy groups and partners from Yemen to Lebanon.
From the perspective of many regional partners, including many Israelis and some key Gulf partners, the only solution to the threats posed by Iran is a change in the Iranian regime. The Obama administration, looking back on the regime change wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan as less than glittering successes, tried to break the problem down, though, and focus first on the nuclear program. Through painstaking diplomacy, the Obama administration and its international partners negotiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to halt the Iranian nuclear program.
It was a monumental achievementalbeit one greeted with fury by those same regional partners who played no role in its negotiation. I accompanied the Secretary of Defense, Ash Carter, to some decidedly frosty meetings with Israeli and Saudi leaders once we finalized the deal, and I then watched the Saudis and Israelis unsuccessfully lobby the Congress over the summer to reject the deal.
If those regional partners had no success on Capitol Hill, though, they have had success in the Trump White House. And they were helped by the fact that many of the men who are working on the Middle East within the White House have as their frame of reference for Iran the war in Iraq between 2006 and 2008. U.S. Army veterans like Derek Harvey and Joel Rayburnboth mentioned in the report as staffers working on the Iran dealare not specialists on Iran but sure remember Iran and its proxies lobbing mortars into the Green Zone in Baghdad during the darkest days of 2007. Its not hard to understand why they might not have warm feelings toward the Iranians.
And its also understandable why they might criticize our efforts in the Obama administration. We addressed the Iranian nuclear program, sure, but we never curbed Irans asymmetric activities, which only got worse in Yemen and Syria in particular. Worse, some members of the Obama administration held out some hope that the nuclear deal might bring Iran in from the cold or moderate its behavior in other arenas. Needless to say, that did not happen.
Those of us who work on Middle East policy, though, often fail to remember theres a world beyond our particular region of focus. And Im struck by the words of one of our most senior military commanders in the waning days of the Obama administration: The more I look at North Korea, the more thankful I am for the Iran deal.
Few who work on North Korea think the Iran deal was a bad deal. Asia specialists would kill for the kind of deal we Middle East specialists spend so much time griping about.
In the same way, I understand why neither the Israelis nor the Gulf partners would ever want the United States to reduce the roughly 35,000 U.S. servicemen we have stationed in the Gulf region alone. But the United States has global obligations, and there is real opportunity cost to tying up so many U.S. resources in a region energy markets are making less important while the Pacific region grows in strategic significance. In that context, even the Obama eras most quixotic efforts to disentangle the United States from the Middle East look more excusable.
The second way in which the Trump administration is constricted by a very narrow focus, though, is the lack of appreciation for the way in which the United States has achieved most of its gains in the Middle Easteither against the Islamic State or Iranoperating as part of coalitions. Those same coalitions both enable and constrain U.S. actions.
Against the Islamic State, the United States assembled a broad coalition of nations to claw back Iraqi and Syrian territory. Thirty nations contribute to the military coalitionwith many more contributing diplomatic, intelligence, and humanitarian support. It is fair to say that few of these nations support an effort to carry the fight to Iran once Daesh is defeatedthough I know that some members of the Trump administrations national security staff are eager to challenge Irans proxies in Syria and Iraq.
The same goes for the other members of the United Nations Security Council, Germany, and the European Unionall of whom helped negotiate the nuclear deal with Iran. We Americans often describe Iran as a rogue state, but if the Trump administration is seen to be undermining the nuclear deal, it will not be Iran that our international partners consider rogue. The secretaries of State and Defense both understand this, and the president should as well. If the deal collapses, and the United States is seen as being the one to blame, multilateral diplomacy is no longer a viable option to contain Irans nuclear ambitions. Only a military strikeor series of military strikeswould suffice. This might be what some within the Trump administration want, and its certainly what many regional partners want, but its neither what Americas allies or Trumps voters want.
Ironically, six months into the Trump administration, there has been a lot more continuity in U.S. Middle East policy than change. But some members of the Trump administration remain obsessed with the former administration. In recent months, the top Gulf, Syria, and Iraq experts at the National Security Councilall career civil servants, but all suspected of having too many close ties to the Obama administrationhave been unceremoniously returned to their home agencies. Members of the administration go on Fox News and proclaim former Obama administration officialswho they had previously and incongruously denounced as nave and incompetentare running a vast conspiracy within the U.S. civil service to undermine the presidents agenda.
All of that creates a toxic environment whereby members of the Trump administration might be tempted to do things not because they are wise but simply because they reverse things the Obama administration did. When it comes to the Iran deal, that would be a mistake of epic proportions.
View post:
If Trump Undermines the Iran Deal - The Atlantic
- Pentagon watchdog says Iran war has led to munitions shortfall - NBC News - September 15th, 2026 [September 15th, 2026]
- Iran balks at Trump's openness to restarting peace talks - Fox News - September 15th, 2026 [September 15th, 2026]
- US imposes fresh sanctions on Russia's VTB Bank over alleged Iran ties - Reuters - September 15th, 2026 [September 15th, 2026]
- Saudi Arabia built the East-West pipeline in case Iran closed Hormuz. Militias still blasted it - Fortune - September 15th, 2026 [September 15th, 2026]
- Iran and the Emerging Security Order in the Middle East - csis.org - September 15th, 2026 [September 15th, 2026]
- Iran war coverage led to firings at Stars and Stripes, former publisher says - Politico - September 15th, 2026 [September 15th, 2026]
- I Have a Theory About Who Leaked a Story About Iran, and It Rhymes With A.P. Mance - slate.com - September 15th, 2026 [September 15th, 2026]
- U.S. Air Force officer shot down in Iran says he prayed while "free-falling" to the ground behind enemy lines - CBS News - September 15th, 2026 [September 15th, 2026]
- Get ready for a 30% jump in heating oil costs this winter as Iran war drives up prices - CNN - September 15th, 2026 [September 15th, 2026]
- Will Thibeau reacts to US sanctions against Russian bank over Iran ties - Fox News - September 15th, 2026 [September 15th, 2026]
- US military says Iran war led to munitions shortfall, reveals base and aircraft damage - The Times of Israel - September 15th, 2026 [September 15th, 2026]
- Trump admin targets one of Russias largest banks for supporting Iran - CNN - September 15th, 2026 [September 15th, 2026]
- U.S. Imposes Sanctions on Russias VTB Bank Over Ties to Iran - The New York Times - September 15th, 2026 [September 15th, 2026]
- Meeting Between Iran and Arab States Postponed as Mideast Diplomacy Stalls - The New York Times - September 15th, 2026 [September 15th, 2026]
- Treasury hits Russia's VTB Bank with new sanctions over Iran ties - CNBC - September 15th, 2026 [September 15th, 2026]
- Trojan horses in America: Congress probes influence networks tied to China, Iran and Cuba - Fox News - September 15th, 2026 [September 15th, 2026]
- Iran Says It Is Ready To Negotiate Its Nuclear Program If Washington Lifts The Sanctions - i24NEWS - September 15th, 2026 [September 15th, 2026]
- How the Iran War Forced the Gulf to Rethink Its Security - Time Magazine - September 15th, 2026 [September 15th, 2026]
- How the Iran War accelerated the deep decline of U.S. military readiness under Trump and Hegset - Milwaukee Independent - September 15th, 2026 [September 15th, 2026]
- Iran meeting with Gulf countries to discuss Strait of Hormuz deal without the US - CNN - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Hegseth, associates pushed F-15 airmen downed over Iran to appear on 60 Minutes report - The Times of Israel - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Trump says US could stay in Iran and keep oil, like Venezuela deal - Reuters - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Iran war live: Heavy fighting erupts in Yemen as Houthis make new push - Al Jazeera - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Up 3,600%, this freight fund has posted the biggest gains of all on Iran war oil shock - CNBC - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- China reportedly helped Iran in deadly attack on US forces - Fox News - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Saudi Arabia has few options as it faces mounting threats from Iran and its allies - PBS - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Day After Talks In Delhi, Iran Says It Wants To "Turn The Page" With UAE - NDTV - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- President Trumps new strategy on the Iran war: Pretending there isnt one | Editorial - inquirer.com - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Behind the Scenes, Vance Gathered Unvarnished Views of the Iran War - The New York Times - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Iran Finds Escalation Is Fruitful Path to Leverage in War With U.S. - The New York Times - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Saudi Arabia has few options as it faces mounting threats from Iran and its allies - apnews.com - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Iran-GCC summit: Whats behind the meeting, why is Bahrain not attending? - Al Jazeera - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- As Oil Prices Rise, BRICS Leaders Have What U.S. Doesnt: Iran at the Table - The New York Times - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Iran war live: Houthis warn against intervention; threaten to close strait - Al Jazeera - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Trump sees Iran war ending soon after midterm elections, predicts oil prices will then fall sharply - CNBC - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Can the oil market survive a forever war with Iran? - CNN - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Iran opening second front with Houthis in Yemen, Rep Crawford warns - Fox News - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- The Iran war reveals the limits of BRICS - Al Jazeera - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Iran-backed Houthis seize strategic Mayun Island: Can they hold it? - Al Jazeera - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Report: Chinese entities gave Iran satellite images before deadly strike on US base - The Times of Israel - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Saudi Arabia shuts down a pipeline as Houthis seize an island, opening a new front in the Iran war - apnews.com - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- U.S. watches as Russia, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Africas BRICS powers rally in India to bypass sanctions and break the US dollars hold over... - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Iran-backed Houthis claim to hit Saudi base with missiles, drones amid renewed fighting - The Times of Israel - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Trump: Iran likely behind attack on Saudi pipeline, Houthis told us they dont want to fight - The Times of Israel - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Iran hardliners said to have launched attacks in defiance of leaders, sabotaging peace deal - The Times of Israel - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Trump says he doesn't care if Gulf states meet with Iran, again predicts war will end around midterms - The Times of Israel - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Iran says Mondays meeting in Oman to focus on new maritime route in Strait of Hormuz - Anadolu Ajans - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Potential Iran-Oman Hormuz deal wont immediately reopen strait, source tells Iranian media - The Times of Israel - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Iran president says Tehran and UAE want to turn the page on war - The Times of Israel - September 13th, 2026 [September 13th, 2026]
- Iran war live: Tehran accuses Trump of bombing wedding party and killing five people - The Independent - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- US and Iran exchange attacks as lull in war appears over - Reuters - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- Putin Pledges Increased Strikes in Ukraine and Support for Iran - The New York Times - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- Trump says Iran is DEAD experts point to the real sign Tehran is nearing the brink - Fox News - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- US and Iran exchange fire after abrupt end to month without military action - AP News - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- Iran says regretful response to US attacks has begun after state TV reports four killed at wedding in Sirik region as it happened - The Guardian - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- Asian markets tumble as US-Iran fighting lifts oil and bond yields - finance.yahoo.com - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- The republic of magic: How Iran turned the unseen into an instrument of rule - Iran International - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- 'It's been hard': Sandy man speaks out on behalf of cousin facing death in Iran for protesting - KSL.com - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- Peru cuts ties with Iran, accusing Tehran of escalating Mideast war - The Times of Israel - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- Trump used to say he saw a quick end to his Iran war, but 6 months later he claims he's in no hurry - AP News - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- US launches new strikes on Iran and Tehran hits back in widening conflict - Reuters - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- Bessent Hosts G20 Meeting; U.S. Strikes Iran for Second Time in Three Days - The New York Times - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- Trump says latest strikes on Iran are 'justified,' warns Tehran against retaliation - Reuters - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- US launches new strikes on Iran and Tehran hits back in widening conflict - Yahoo - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- US military says it completed latest wave of strikes on Iran - Reuters - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- Trump vows to hit Iran hard after first exchanges of fire in a month - Reuters - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- Car hits pro-government gathering in Iran, killing four - Reuters - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- Trump says Iran is DEAD experts point to the real sign Tehran is nearing the brink - Yahoo - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- Trump threatens further action as US and Iran exchange fire in new flare-up | US-Israel war on Iran - The Guardian - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- US strikes IRGC targets in Iran in response to attacks on American forces - The Hill - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- Iran war updates: Tehran says preparing list of conditions to open Hormuz - Al Jazeera - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- Bessent vows Iran will have no choice as pressure campaign grinds regime into the ground - Fox News - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- Iran war latest: Tehran calls Trump AI video 'laughable' - after trading first strikes with US in a month - Sky News - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- US Partners Venezuela In Massive Oil DealCould This Happen In Iran. - Forbes - September 2nd, 2026 [September 2nd, 2026]
- Treasury yields tick lower as U.S.-Iran war moves back into the spotlight - CNBC - August 31st, 2026 [August 31st, 2026]
- Treasury yields tick lower as U.S.-Iran war moves back into the spotlight - CNBC - August 31st, 2026 [August 31st, 2026]
- U.S. plans to sanction another bank in effort to clamp down on Iran transactions: Bessent - CNBC - August 31st, 2026 [August 31st, 2026]
- U.S. plans to sanction another bank in effort to clamp down on Iran transactions: Bessent - CNBC - August 31st, 2026 [August 31st, 2026]
- Trump Administration Live Updates: U.S. and Iran Trade Fire for First Time in a Month - The New York Times - August 31st, 2026 [August 31st, 2026]
- World mostly shrugs off Bessents D-Day Iran sanctions threat - Fortune - August 31st, 2026 [August 31st, 2026]