Iran will soon have ICBMs armed with nukes by way of North …
Heres a prediction by yours truly that you can take to the bank: In just a few years Iran will have intercontinental ballistic missiles, or ICBMs, that can attack targets all over the Middle East, Europe and the United States.
And it might all be thanks to the rogue state the Trump administration has labelled the biggest national security threat of our time: North Korea.
Oh, and to twist the knife in a little deeper, those missiles could be armed with nuclear weaponsonce the Iran deal expires. That is, unless America puts a stop to this threat once and for all.
Now wait a second. Youre shocked? You really shouldnt be.
Before we get to all that, maybe we should take a step back for a moment.
You see, making such predictions isnt always popular, but they spur action. Foreign policy analysts here in Washington love to hedge their bets with words like possibly, perhaps, likely and so on when trying to predict the next big threat. However, there is always certain trends that are easy to seeand even easier to run away from because they arent super solvable.
The American people didnt vote for such dithering last cycle. To be frank, they voted for the opposite of Barack Obama.
When it comes to matters abroad voters wanted an America that would seek out the challenges of the future and take them on before they were aimed at our collective heads. And that is what President Trump has done by taking on North Koreas nuclear and missile programs as well as calling out Iran for its own menacing missile plans.
While all of this is great news, the Trump administration is now facing a much bigger problem: the potential for North Korea and Iran to collaborate on long-range missile technology that can be used to strike our allies and the homeland.
In many respects, the evidence is right out in the open of past collaboration, according to some experts.
In an interview with Fox News, Jeffrey Lewis, an expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey explained that the very first missiles we saw in Iran were simply copies of North Korean missiles. He also noted that over the years, we've seen photographs of North Korean and Iranian officials in each other's countries, and we've seen all kinds of common hardware.
Many experts have been warning for years now that Tehran and Pyongyang have been trading missile technology. If the Trump administration doesnt act fast it wont be just the hermit kingdom that has nukes that can strike at targets thousands of miles awaybut it will also be the only nation on planet Earth that has turned chanting death to America into a national pastime.
Now, to be fair, there are those who downplay the linkages between Iran and North Korea. But if history tells us one thing it is that to never, ever, dismiss the power of a common threat. And both of these countries seek to offset U.S. military mightat any price. Clearly long-range missiles armed with nuclear payloads do that quite nicely.
One could easily imagine a scenario in a decade or so when the Iran nuclear deal has lapsedsomething many on the left seem to forgetand Tehran decides that it no longer needs to hide its intentions.
Iran instead takes what it feels is its rightful place as the dominant power of the Middle East and hold on to its arsenal of nuclear weapons and the missiles to carry them into battle. With the nuclear research it already has done in the past, along with careful cooperation with Pyongyang on missile technology the nuclear deal currently in place never restricted such cooperationit decides to push ahead unabated.
So what should the Trump administration do about this threat? Thankfully, Washington has considerable options to explore.
First, we should name and shame any North Korean, Iranian or outside partners that are helping these rogue regimes collaborate on missile technologies.
Pentagon and intelligence officials have told me on several occasions they have strong leads on who is helping facilitate these exchanges. Its time to shine a light on these groups or individualsnow. They need to be outed for the whole world to see and publicly shamed.
The Trump administration should declare that if you help Pyongyang or Tehran build long-range missiles you are an enemy of the international community and will be treated accordingly. Such shaming should include those providing material or technical assistance or any banks, financial institutions or front companies passing along funds for such assistance between both nations.
Second, with such entities out in the open, Team Trump should impose sanctions on such groups as soon as possible. The goal should be to drive up the costs for both sides and make them feel the financial pinch as much as possible.
Third, we should get creative in how we try to stamp out such cooperation. In a 2012 report by the National Bureau of Asian Research, author John S. Park offers the idea of using a a monetary reward program to interdict components or technicians central to ballistic missile development. He notes that:
Hiding in the open is a particularly effective tactic employed by North Korea. Contracting private Chinese companies to serve as middlemen to facilitate cargo launderinga creative process of disassembling components and moving them through different logistics routesenables North Korean state trading companies to utilize commercial shipping containers. Monetary rewards would offer a double payday for some Chinese companies, who could collect the commission fee from a North Korean client as well as the reward for anonymously providing a copy of the freight insurance to local authorities in busy Southeast Asian ports.
And finally, all of this is the clearest argument yet for Washington to lead a much more robust effort at ensuring more missile defense platforms are brought into the Middle East, Asia and also upgraded for the defense of our homeland.
Stopping an Iranian ICBM armed with a nuclear weapon by way of North Korea is one of the greatest challenges America faces today. The Trump administration must act now before its too late.
Harry J. Kazianis (@grecianformula) is director of defense studies at the Center for the National Interest, founded by former President Richard M. Nixon. Click here, for more on Mr. Kazianis.
Link:
Iran will soon have ICBMs armed with nukes by way of North ...
- Iran puts on show of force with war games ahead of Trump's second term - CBS News - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- An American hostage during the Iran crisis remembers Jimmy Carter - BBC.com - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- How Iran moves sanctioned oil around the world - Reuters - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Italian journalist Cecilia Sala released by Iran - The Washington Post - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Angry Trump roasts journalist when asked about Iran military strategy - The Independent - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- UN says Iran executed over 900 people in 2024, including dozens of women - Reuters - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- An Italian journalist is freed from detention in Iran and returns home - The Associated Press - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- The Iran Opportunity: What America Needs to Do to Achieve a Breakthrough - Foreign Affairs Magazine - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- France says conditions of citizens held in Iran akin to torture - Reuters - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Iran Pulls Most Forces From Syria, in Blow to Tehrans Regional Ambitions - The Wall Street Journal - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Shipping in the Crosshairs: What Trumps Return Could Mean for Iran and Maritime Trade - gCaptain - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- OPEC oil output falls in December on UAE and Iran, survey finds - Reuters - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Yakuza boss pleads guilty to attempted nuclear trafficking to Iran - - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Iran to hold talks over its nuclear programme with European countries - Euronews - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Five years since the downing of Ukrainian airliner by Iran - Ukrainian World Congress - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Iran hostages reflect on a crisis that defined Jimmy Carters presidency: A fine man that did his best - The Guardian US - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Activists in Iran describe the threats and oppression they face for protesting - PBS NewsHour - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Iran diverts focus to West Bank after fall of Assad, Israel says - - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- World News in Brief: Deadly China quake, Killings of Alawites in Syria, executions in Iran, CAR rights defenders, finance and food crises - UN News - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Turkey-backed Syria may be bigger threat than Iran, says Israeli government panel - Middle East Eye - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Tehrans proxies are on the back foot. An Iran-Russia defense pact could revive them. - Breaking Defense - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Italian PM says unaware of any Musk role in journalist's release from Iran - - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Japanese mafia leader caught in U.S. sting pleads guilty to conspiring to traffic nuclear materials to Iran - CBS News - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Report: Israel thinks Trump will back IDF strike on Iran nuke program or order US hit - The Times of Israel - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Iran tells France to review 'unconstructive' approach ahead of meeting - Reuters - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Welcoming election of Lebanese president, Iran says it wants to work with him - The Times of Israel - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Executions of women in Iran hit highest level in 17 years: report - JURIST - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Iran warns Italy that bilateral ties at risk if it bows to 'hostile' US demands over drone suspect - ABC News - January 6th, 2025 [January 6th, 2025]
- On GPS: How will Trump deal with Russia and Iran? - CNN - January 6th, 2025 [January 6th, 2025]
- Israels Red Sea Conundrum: Hit the Houthis or Iran - The Wall Street Journal - January 6th, 2025 [January 6th, 2025]
- Next nuclear talks between Iran and three European countries due on Jan 13 - Reuters - January 6th, 2025 [January 6th, 2025]
- A Last Chance for Iran: America Should Give Diplomacy a Final ShotWhile Preparing to Use Military Force - Foreign Affairs Magazine - January 6th, 2025 [January 6th, 2025]
- Iran's plot to assassinate dissident artist in Germany exposed | Iran International - - January 6th, 2025 [January 6th, 2025]
- Further Israeli strikes on Iran may lead to full-fledged war, FM warns - - January 6th, 2025 [January 6th, 2025]
- Report to Congress on Iran - USNI News - January 6th, 2025 [January 6th, 2025]
- Essay | The Untold Story of Jimmy Carters Hawkish Stand on Iran - The Wall Street Journal - January 6th, 2025 [January 6th, 2025]
- The Illusion of Influence: Iran's Fictional Tale of Soleimani and Putin - IranWire | - January 6th, 2025 [January 6th, 2025]
- Israel must confront Iran to weaken the Houthis - opinion - The Jerusalem Post - January 6th, 2025 [January 6th, 2025]
- Poverty in Iran: A Catalyst for Social Unrest and Regime Instability - Iran News Update - January 6th, 2025 [January 6th, 2025]
- What Will Trump Do About Iran? - by Jay Solomon - The FP - January 6th, 2025 [January 6th, 2025]
- U.S. imposes Russia, Iran sanctions over attempted election interference - The Washington Post - January 6th, 2025 [January 6th, 2025]
- Italy presses Iran for immediate release of journalist held in Tehran - The Guardian - January 6th, 2025 [January 6th, 2025]
- Israel confirms commandos raided Iran missile factory deep in Syria 4 months ago - The Times of Israel - January 6th, 2025 [January 6th, 2025]
- Iran to conduct extensive military drills in air, land, and sea - Tehran Times - January 6th, 2025 [January 6th, 2025]
- Iran in post-Assad Middle East: Will Khamenei's 2024 gamble haunt him in 2025? | Iran International - - January 6th, 2025 [January 6th, 2025]
- Former diplomat urges Iran to appoint envoy to mend ties with US - - January 6th, 2025 [January 6th, 2025]
- Iran providing Houthis with more arms after collapse of other armed allies - Telegraph - - January 6th, 2025 [January 6th, 2025]
- IDF on alert as Iran faces increasing pressures - JNS.org - January 6th, 2025 [January 6th, 2025]
- PM: Iran dumbfounded by Israeli strikes, saw investment in proxies go down the tubes - The Times of Israel - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Iran could build nuclear weapon, Trump told by White House - The Telegraph - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- The year ahead in the Middle East: A weakened Iran has big implications for China - The Conversation - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- The Iran-led axis of resistance in the aftermath of Syrias upheaval - Al Jazeera English - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- PM vows escalated fight against Houthis; officials said urging direct attack on Iran - The Times of Israel - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Analysis: The Islamic State and Iran remain determined to attack the US - Long War Journal - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Khamenei says Iran does not have or need proxy forces in Middle East - The Times of Israel - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Iran plagued by energy crisis partially caused by strikes attributed to Israel - The Times of Israel - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- US imposes sanctions on Iran and Houthi-related targets - Reuters - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Christmas in Tehran During the 1979 Iran Hostage Crisis - The New Yorker - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Women Being Sent to the Gallows in Alarming Numbers in Iran - Center for Human Rights in Iran - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Trump Reportedly Offers To Hold High-level Nuclear Talks With Iran - i24NEWS - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Iran pauses the process to implement a new, stricter headscarf law for women, official says - The Associated Press - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Documents captured from Hamas reveal Iran's complex weapons smuggling network - The Jerusalem Post - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- UN pushes for Iran nuclear deal talks, says 'time of the essence' - Reuters.com - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Netanyahu: 'Just as we acted forcefully against Iran's axis of evil, we will act against Houthis' - The Jerusalem Post - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- The Middle East Is in Chaos. Iran Is Focused on the Veil. - Foreign Policy - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Iran expands weaponization capabilities critical for employing nuclear bomb - Fox News - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Iran: Only Three Days of Electricity and Gasoline Per Week - Iran Focus - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Iran celebrates 3rd anniversary of Yalda Nights UNESCO designation - Tehran Times - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Its proxies pummeled, Iran is suddenly more vulnerable than ever. Will it go nuclear? - The Times of Israel - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- FIFA hails all-women crowd of 45K at game in Iran - ESPN - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Two charged in connection with Iran-backed drone strike that killed 3 US troops in the Middle East - The Associated Press - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Syrians have every right to hate us Iranians | Iran International - - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- UN monitor says reviving Iran deal now irrelevant, since Tehran on cusp of nuke - The Times of Israel - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Syria has been liberated from Russia and Iran but outsiders still threaten its new freedom - The Guardian - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Western sabotage intended to create chaos in Iran - Tehran Times - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Iran throws its support behind Assad as rebels expand their shock offensive in Syria - NBC News - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- Iran says insecurity in Syria will spread beyond borders - - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- Iran to begin enriching uranium with thousands of advanced centrifuges, UN watchdog says - The Associated Press - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- Rebels in Syria take advantage of Israels successes against a weakened Iran axis - The Times of Israel - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]
- Avoiding the next front: Iraqs fight to stay out of the Israel-Iran conflict - European Council on Foreign Relations - December 2nd, 2024 [December 2nd, 2024]