Iran’s Imperial History Overshadows Its Future – The National Interest Online
Just who speaks for Iran? When engaging with the Islamic Republic, the international community has tended to treat the country as a monolith, a consolidated political and ideological entity presided over by an entrenched clerical elite. That, however, is hardly the case. In truth, Iran is a complex and cosmopolitan melting pot made up of multiple, competing ethnic identities kept in check by a strong central authoritybut just barely.
This state of affairs is a natural byproduct of Irans imperial history. At the height of its power in the late 1600s, the Safavid dynasty, the greatest of the Iranian empires that spanned more than half a millennia, covered a swathe of territory stretching from central Afghanistan to southeastern Turkey and encompassed millions of people and dozens of distinct ethnic groups. Over the years, as the contours of imperial Iran expanded and constricted, a multitude of cultures and ethnicities came under its sway. As the centuries wore on, migration and commerce merged these disparate communities into what we now know as modern-day Iran.
Exactly how ethnically diverse Iran actually is, however, is a matter of some debate. There are currently no agreed-upon academic or governmental sources on Irans ethnic make-up, says Brenda Shaffer of Georgetown University, one of the countrys leading experts on Irans ethnic minorities. And because there arent, U.S. government estimatesincluding the CIAs vaunted World Factbook, which policy institutes and academia routinely rely on for figureshave tended to reflect official Iranian data regarding the population of its provinces.
That, Shaffer insists, is a mistake, because the Iranian regime has a vested interest in overrepresenting the countrys Persian majorityand underplaying the size and salience of other ethnic groups. By her estimates, the most reliable estimates of what Iran actually looks like internally can be extrapolated from earlier, and less political, sociological surveys carried out in the 1970s. Based on those figures, Shaffer projects that Irans current population of more than eighty-five million is made up of some forty-two million Persians, an estimated twenty-seven million Azerbaijanis, and roughly eight million Kurds, five million Arabs, two million Turkmen, and one-and-a-half million Baluch.
In other words, while Persians are indeed a majority within the Islamic Republic, their numbers are considerably more modest than generally advertised. The rest of the country, meanwhile, is comprised of a number of large and influential ethnic groups.
These groups are mostly concentrated in Irans various provinces, from East Azerbaijan, West Azerbaijan and Ardabil in the countrys northwest (home to the bulk of Iranian Azerbaijanis) to Sistan-Baluchistan in the southeast, where the preponderance of Iranian Baluch reside. Yet their influence is felt far beyond those places. Shaffer notes that, virtually without exception, Irans major urban centers are multi-ethnic affairsthe product of decades of intermarriage between urban dwellers from different parts of the country (and, before that, the empire). The most prominent example of this trend is none other than Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself, whose ethnic Azerbaijani heritage is common knowledge within the country.
Nevertheless, it is in Irans provinces where ethnic identity remains the strongest and most politically active, which is why those regions represent a threat to the countrys clerical regime.
Throughout Iranian history, Shaffer notes, every time the center is weak, the periphery rises. The situation is the same today. With the start of the current round of unrest in Iran in December 2017, Irans ethnic enclaves emerged as the most vibrant centers of resistance to clerical rule. In turn, the Iranian regime reserved some of its harshest repressionincluding mass arrests and state-sanctioned violencefor cities located in provinces where ethnic minorities predominate.
The brutality of the official response reflects just how deeply Iranian authorities fear the political activism and destabilizing potential of the countrys ethnic communities. They have good reason to do so; in recent years, radical ethnic movements in various provinces throughout the country have emerged as a major domestic security challenge for the regime in Tehran.
In Sistan-Baluchistan, which borders Pakistan, a low-grade insurgency has been simmering since the middle of the last decade. There, attacks carried out by militant Sunni Baluch groups like Jundullah and Jaish ul-Adl against regime targets have exacted a heavy toll. For instance, In October 2018, Baluch extremists abducted more than a dozen members of Irans clerical army, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in the province. A subsequent February 2019 attack on an IRGC convoy transiting the region left nearly thirty dead. Such violence, moreover, has persisted despite a 2014 understanding between Iran and Pakistan under which both countries committed to stepped-up counterterrorism cooperation along their common border.
Irans majority Kurdish regions of West Azerbaijan, Kordestan and Kermanshah are similarly restive. Over the years, Iranian soldiers have become regular targets of attacks in those places carried out by local radicals, often in cooperation with sympathetic elements across the border in Iraq. The most prominent actor in this regard is the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), a Kurdish separatist group linked to Turkeys outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party which waged a pitched military campaign against the Iranian regime elements in the region between 2004 and 2011. This group has sporadically clashed with regime forces since then.
Irans eastern province of Khuzestan, meanwhile, is the site of significant separatist activity on the part of the countrys Arab minority. The region has a long history of social activism dating back to the 1920s, but in recent years the situation has become more heated, in part as a result of the activities of an insurgent group known as the Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of Ahvaz (ASMLA).
Between 2005 and 2015, large-scale civil unrest broke out in the province, mirroring the ethnic turmoil then occurring elsewhere in the Islamic Republic. While that ferment has abated somewhat since then the potential for large scale violence remains. In April of 2018, mass demonstrations erupted throughout Khuzestan, with the resulting clashes with authorities claiming scores of lives. And that September, a group of terrorists attacked a military parade in Ahvaz, killing nearly thirty soldiers and civilians in the most significant incident of its kind within Iran in recent memory. Shaffer points out that the instability in Khuzestan is particularly worrisome to the regime since it is located at the center of the countrys oil production.
Its no wonder, then, that Irans leaders are distrustful of the countrys ethnic minorities, and all too eager to suppress them. Authorities have long applied more discriminatory policies and stricter security measures in heavily ethnic provinces than elsewhere in the country. In his most recent report, Javaid Rehman, the UNs Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Iran, laid out in damning detail precisely what form this persecution takes. The regime, Rehman outlined, is responsible for the arbitrary deprivation of life and extrajudicial executions; a disproportionate number of executions on national security-related charges; a disproportionate number of political prisoners; arbitrary arrests and detention in connection with a range of peaceful activities such as advocacy for linguistic freedom, organizing or taking part in peaceful protests and being affiliated with opposition parties; incitement to hatred and violence; the forced closure of businesses and discriminatory practices and denial of employment; and restrictions on access to education and other basic services.
Worries over ethnicity even permeate the regimes internal organization. In much the same way the Soviet Communist Party in its day managed the inherent risk posed by the diverse ethnicities that had been drawn into the USSR, Shaffer says, great pains are taken today at the official level in Tehran to ensure that soldiers in Irans military do not serve in the province of their core ethnicity. In this way, the Iranian regime seeks to mute any residual identity that might supersede loyalty to the state, should push come to shove.
If it does, however, then Iranian authorities will have some unlikely allies: ordinary Iranians themselves. For most, national unity is a paramount concern, and many would prefer a united countryeven one under clerical ruleto a fragmented post-theocratic nation. For this reason, ethnic politics represent something of a third rail in any discussion of Irans future. Even ardent opponents of the current regime make abundantly clear that they would back the existing status quo if the alternative was a breakup of the country along ethnic lines. Irans clerical regime, in turn, has exploited these fears, disseminating messages that emphasize that only it has the capability to prevent such a situation.
It is also the reason why Irans disparate opposition groups have spent so little time discussing the plight of the countrys ethnic minorities, beyond general promises of equal treatment in whatever order emerges after the Islamic Republics collapse. Underlying this laissez faire attitude is an uncomfortable reality: ensuring that Irans assorted ethnic groups are content, engaged and committed to keeping the country intact are among the most pressing tasks facing anyone who hopes to rule this nation of nations after the ayatollahs.
Ilan Berman is the senior vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC. This piece is the seventh in a series of articles exploring the beliefs, ideas and values of different factions within the Iranian opposition, as well as the challenges confronting them.
Visit link:
Iran's Imperial History Overshadows Its Future - The National Interest Online
- Trump says he hopes not to have to support Israeli attack on Iran - - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump: Would be nice to solve problems with Iran without Israeli strikes - The Times of Israel - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- From Iran to European nations: What does the world expect from Trump? - Israel Hayom - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- The Farda Briefing: Iran Talks Tough But Signals Openness For Negotiations With U.S. - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- What a Secretary of State Rubio means for the Middle East: Getting tougher on Iran and tighter with allies - Atlantic Council - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump revokes protections for former Secretary of State Pompeo and top aide threatened by Iran - The Associated Press - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- UN chief Guterres calls on Iran to renounce nuclear weapons - Reuters - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Davos- Iran's Zarif says he hopes Trump will choose 'rationality' - Reuters - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Conscience Held Captive: The State of Religious Minorities in Iran - IranWire | - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump will seek snapback of UN sanctions on Iran, Rubio says - - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump says hes hopeful Iran deal can be reached without Israeli military strike on nuclear program - All Israel News - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump has few good options to prevent Iran from building a nuclear bomb - The Conversation - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Italian journalist detained in Iran says she expected to be held longer and praises Musk's role - The Associated Press - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Why Russia and Iran signed a new 'strategic partnership' - Le Monde - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Iran and Russia deepen cyber ties with new agreement - The Record from Recorded Future News - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Saudi FM says Trump presidency doesnt raise risk of Iran-Israel war - The Times of Israel - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Over 1,000 tons of missile fuel chemicals head for Iran from China report - The Jerusalem Post - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Iran says it hopes Trump will take realistic approach, show respect to Mideast - The Times of Israel - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump ends Secret Service protection for John Bolton as Iran threat persists - WBAL TV Baltimore - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- How Iran Lost Before It Lost - RealClearWorld - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- The alliance of outcasts: Closer ties between Russia and Iran bring benefits and new enemies for both nations - The Insider - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump revokes security detail for Mike Pompeo, years after Iran threatened to kill the then-secretary of State - New York Post - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trumps Iran Policy Puts Focus on $30 Billion-a-Year Oil Revenue - Bloomberg - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Iran unveils new underground naval base amid tension with US and Israel - Reuters - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Iran pushing for better ties with Azerbaijan: Why and how? - analysis - The Jerusalem Post - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump fires his former Iran envoy Brian Hook on first day | Iran International - - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Interpreting the 20-year military pact between Russia & Iran - Responsible Statecraft - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Russia and Iran have a troubled history despite their current alliance - The Associated Press - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump: 'It Would Be Really Nice' if Iran Issues Could Be Worked Out Without Israeli Strikes on Nuclear Sites - Haaretz - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump to appoint Mideast envoy Witkoff to handle the Iran portfolio - Ynetnews - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Musk Said to Have Intervened to Help Free Italian Jailed in Iran - The New York Times - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- Iran calls pending Gaza deal a defeat for Israel, as leaders worldwide welcome pact - The Times of Israel - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- Russia and Iran sign cooperation treaty days before Trump's inauguration - Euronews - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- Putin and Iran's president sign 20-year treaty, strengthening ties - CBS News - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- Making Iran Choose Between the Bomb and Bankruptcy - The Washington Institute - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- Iran unveils underground naval base as it seeks to counter Israeli threat - Sky News - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- Russia's Strategic Treaty With Iran May Have Nuclear Angle - Newsweek - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Russia and Iran to sign partnership treaty this week - POLITICO Europe - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Iran, already on the defensive, braces for second Trump term - The Washington Post - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Russia says Iran's president will visit this week and sign a partnership pact with Putin - ABC News - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Reform is Happening in Iran and Assads Fall Could Accelerate It - Stimson Center - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Iran welcomes return of national held in Italy in spat involving the US - Al Jazeera English - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Iran holding war games as it faces Israel tensions, Trump's return - Reuters - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Iran, European powers hold third round of nuclear talks in Geneva - - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Will Iran build a nuclear bomb while Trump is in power in the US? - Al Jazeera English - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Iran nuclear talks resume ahead of Trump's return: What's at stake? - Perspective - FRANCE 24 English - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Iran Gets Major Drone Boost Amid Growing Tensions With Israel - Newsweek - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Frenchman held in Iran since 2022 reveals identity in audio message - FRANCE 24 English - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Trump Urged to Reapply Maximum Pressure on Iran in New Strategic Blueprint - BTW21 - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Iran expands military drills to two more nuclear sites in countrys west and center - The Times of Israel - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Germany welcomes release of German-Iranian rights activist from prison in Iran and her return home - Yahoo! Voices - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Opinion | Iran is weak, and should be ready to negotiate - The Washington Post - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Swiss citizen dies in Iran prison after spying arrest - BBC.com - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Russia, Iran to sign comprehensive strategic partnership treaty on Friday, Kremlin says - The Times of Israel - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- UK should back tough Trump sanctions on Iran, report says - The Guardian - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Iran has run out of space to store its missiles, IRGC chief says - - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Iran sending covert missions to Russia for help developing nuclear program The Times - Meduza - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Iran's Malign Activities in Europe: Sweden Raises Alarm Over Organized Crime Involvement - Iran News Update - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Iran puts on show of force with war games ahead of Trump's second term - CBS News - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- An American hostage during the Iran crisis remembers Jimmy Carter - BBC.com - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- How Iran moves sanctioned oil around the world - Reuters - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Italian journalist Cecilia Sala released by Iran - The Washington Post - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Angry Trump roasts journalist when asked about Iran military strategy - The Independent - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- UN says Iran executed over 900 people in 2024, including dozens of women - Reuters - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- An Italian journalist is freed from detention in Iran and returns home - The Associated Press - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- The Iran Opportunity: What America Needs to Do to Achieve a Breakthrough - Foreign Affairs Magazine - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- France says conditions of citizens held in Iran akin to torture - Reuters - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Iran Pulls Most Forces From Syria, in Blow to Tehrans Regional Ambitions - The Wall Street Journal - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Shipping in the Crosshairs: What Trumps Return Could Mean for Iran and Maritime Trade - gCaptain - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- OPEC oil output falls in December on UAE and Iran, survey finds - Reuters - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Yakuza boss pleads guilty to attempted nuclear trafficking to Iran - - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Iran to hold talks over its nuclear programme with European countries - Euronews - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Five years since the downing of Ukrainian airliner by Iran - Ukrainian World Congress - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Iran hostages reflect on a crisis that defined Jimmy Carters presidency: A fine man that did his best - The Guardian US - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Activists in Iran describe the threats and oppression they face for protesting - PBS NewsHour - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Iran diverts focus to West Bank after fall of Assad, Israel says - - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- World News in Brief: Deadly China quake, Killings of Alawites in Syria, executions in Iran, CAR rights defenders, finance and food crises - UN News - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Turkey-backed Syria may be bigger threat than Iran, says Israeli government panel - Middle East Eye - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Tehrans proxies are on the back foot. An Iran-Russia defense pact could revive them. - Breaking Defense - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Italian PM says unaware of any Musk role in journalist's release from Iran - - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]