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As the Middle East splits into three power axes Turkey, Iran, and Israel and its Arab partners this is an opportunity for Israel to close ranks against Iran. But to do so properly, it needs Turkey. And the time is now ripe for Turkish-Israeli reconciliation, for a myriad of reasons.

First, while Turkey and Iran are not enemies, emerging policy incongruencies in the Caucasus, Iraq, and Syria have considerably chilled bilateral relations.

Secondly, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is already sending signals to Israel that he wants torekindle ties with the Jewish state. Israel would have leverage should it respond to Turkish overtures, which come from a point of weakness, in large measure due to Americas coldposture towards Erdogan under President Joe Bidens administration.

Thirdly, reestablishing robust diplomatic ties now would further isolate Iran as it jockeys to maximize its position ahead of negotiations regarding its nuclear file. A more united regional front would further cast Iran as a destabilizing pariah state.

Finally, Israel could achieve ancillary national security objectives here: namely, that Turkey rein insupportfor Hamas; that Turkey deescalatetensions in the eastern Mediterranean, where lucrative natural gas findings are in jeopardy due to Turkish belligerence, and that Turkey reverse policies that haveprevented Israels further integration with NATO.

Though Erdogan is indicating his willingness to normalize and hasappointedan ambassador to Israel after a two-year absence, so far, the Jewish state has unflinchingly rejected those overtures, notwithstanding assessments by Israeli intelligence and military brass that Turkey is now anemerging threat.

Israel cites Erdogans continued allowance of Hamas militants on its soil as a red line. Hosting Hamas is understandably problematic as are concerns about possible Turkish opportunism and insincerity given Erdogans multitudinoustiradesagainst Israel and Turkeys pliable relationship with Iran.

But Israels current priority is Iran, its nuclear and precision missile program, and its primary auxiliary force inHezbollah.

If Israels message to the U.S. and the international community is that it will actunilaterally against Iran, then actively engaging Turkey without President Biden moving first is aligned with such messaging. While strategic patience may be appealing to the U.S., Israel should seize the mood of theAbraham Accords to normalize with Turkey, as this window of opportunity may close given the ever-shifting political landscape of the Middle East.

Normalization may require some modest reciprocation in return for Israeli demands. Given the lack of Turkish leverage, demands in this regard would probably neither be prohibitive nor outweigh the likely strategic advantage gained to Israel.

Revisiting talks regardingenergy cooperation cooperation that will not disrupt Israels existing partnerships in the eastern Mediterranean and exploring humanitarian initiatives to improve life for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, an issue of special concern for Erdogan and his political base back home, would likely suffice.

Given its unique historical role and current hard power projection in the region, Turkey will have an independent Middle East policy for the foreseeable future.

It is far-fetched to assume Turkey would ever subordinate its interests to that of the "Israeli-Gulf" axis or dedicate military assets to defending this axis against Iran. Iran is not a direct threat to Turkey, and as bordering states with longstanding ties, the two countries are strong partners intrade and in discrete areas of security such ascounteringKurdish separatist movements.

Having said that, recent events demonstrate a more confrontational dynamic between Turkey and Iran that can be exploited.

In 2020, Turkeys militarykilled scores of Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed fighters in Syrias Idlib province, the Syrian rebel enclave and military redoubt that stands in opposition to the Syrian regime and its Iranian sponsor.

More recently, affiliated Iranian-backed Iraqi militiasthreatenedTurkey for its perceived occupation of Iraqi territory and envoys from both Iran and Turkey weresummoned to their respective offices regarding policydivergences now developing in Iraqi Kurdistan. These Iranian-backed militias, which Israel infrequently attacks along the Syrian border, arecooperating with Turkeys outlawed terrorist enemy, the Kurdistan Workers Party, known as the PKK.

Moreover, Turkey and Iran sat on opposing sides to the 2020Nagarno-Karabakhconflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the latter an ally of Iran. Turkey, and notably, Israeli support to Azerbaijan, mainly in the form ofdrone assistance, rendered this war a one-sided affair in favor of Azerbaijan.

Turkeys increased influence in the Caucasus istroublingfor Iran as the flames of Azeriseparatism in Irans north was stoked by the war between their co-Turkic brethren in Azerbaijan a Shia dominant but relatively secular country that has ties to both Israel and Turkey and an unsteady relationship with Iran. Azerbaijan has offered tomediatetalks between Israel and Turkey to assist in normalization efforts.

Normalization could foment a shift in Turkey, amilitary powerhouse, so that it leans towards the "Israel-Gulf" axis as it applies to the burgeoning regional security architecture taking shape as America recedes from the Middle East. Israel should proceed cautiously, with the knowledge that Turkey needs allies friendly to the U.S. to curry favor with President Biden and that it continues to support the Muslim Brotherhood and offshoots such as Hamas.

Nonetheless, given the unacceptable risk Iran poses to Israel, the shared interest between Turkey and Israel in containing Iran, and the significant issues that can be resolved to Israels benefit through normalization, it would behoove the Jewish State to explore renewing relations, and soon, with its erstwhile ally.

Nicholas Saidel is the Associate Director of the Institute for Strategic Threat Analysis & Response (ISTAR). Twitter:@nicksaidel

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Israel needs a reset with Turkey to contain Iran - Haaretz