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Even before the recent clashes with Israel, many average Iranians were publicly asking: What is Iran doing spending billions of dollars which were supposed to go to Iranians as a result of the lifting of sanctions from the Iran nuclear deal fighting wars in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen?

That concern is surely one reason Iran, for all its fist-shaking has not retaliated yet. The Israeli airstrike on T4, along with the U.S.-British-French airstrike on the Syrian regimes suspected chemical weapons facilities, have actually exposed the strategic vulnerabilities of both Russia and Iran in Syria. Their forces are very powerful versus the rebels there, but not so powerful versus the Western forces and Israel. Iran, which has to depend largely on Syrias air defense system, is particularly exposed to Israels Air Force.

Russias appearance of omnipotence in the Syrian arena has been shattered, military writer Anshel Pfeffer noted in Haaretz on Monday. Appearances of power count for a lot in this region. Russias forces there are insufficient to take on any of the other nations who have operated, and may operate again, in Syria. The United States, Britain and France, as well as Israel and Turkey, can all deploy larger and more capable forces to the region much faster than Russia can.

Suleimani could opt to strike back at Israel through proxies, either in the Middle East or against Israeli targets globally. But he now has to think twice about that, both because his forces in Syria are exposed and for another reason: Iran is exposed financially. Irans currency is collapsing back home. The Iranian rial has lost one-third of its value just this year, which a wider confrontation with Israel would only exacerbate.

It would seem, in other words, that Suleimani is at odds with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Irans President Rouhani. Putin and Rouhani share an interest in Syria quieting down now, and not becoming a financial drain or a military quagmire by Suleimani turning it into an arena for a direct war with Israel.

But economic restraints have never stopped Suleimani and his Quds Force before and may not now. Their ambitions are big to create a base to pressure Israel directly, to dominate the Arab states around them and to maintain the fervor of the Islamic Revolution. Everyone is basically awaiting Suleimanis next move. Does he back down, lose a little face, and wait until he is stronger? Does Israel let him?

These are momentous days for both countries. One thing I know for sure. The status quo is not sustainable.

This column was updated April 17 to reflect news developments.

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Opinion | Are Iran and Israel Headed for Their First ...