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Foreign Minister Yair Lapid will light the second Hanukkah candle together with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson at 10 Downing Street. They are old acquaintances, back from the time when Johnson was a member of Parliament and Lapid a media personality. On that same day, the nuclear talks between the world powers and Iran will resume in Vienna. Presumably, the meeting between Lapid and Johnson will range further than talk about Hanukkah customs.

The Israeli minister might not admit this but the aim of his visit is to persuade Johnson and on the following day, with another candle, French President Emmanuel Macron to pressure the Americans to maintain the sanctions that were toughened during Donald Trumps presidency, no matter what Iran promises them. In any case, Lapid and Prime Minister Naftali Bennett are convinced, Tehran will continue to deceive the world.

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Dont get pulled along. Lead, Lapid will urge them. Say that you wont offer any relief from the sanctions as long as a genuine, airtight agreement hasnt been signed, with no loopholes.

The talks in Vienna were supposed to lead, more or less, to a return to the original agreement that was drawn up with President Barack Obamas administration and the world powers in 2015. But that agreement is out. Pass. The Iranians arent prepared to hear of it. Instead, U.S. President Joe Biden is taking a different tack: Less for less. The Iranians will get some easing of the sanctions and in return will delay their nuclear program. Thats not going to happen, say Bennett and Lapid, as well as Defense Minister Benny Gantz, who will be heading to Washington in about two weeks. The Iranians will pocket the concessions and continue to gallop ahead.

The nuclear talks pose a complicated challenge to Israels diplomatic and security leadership. Israels traditional position rules out any negotiations if there is no comprehensive package of prohibitions on the table, beyond just a delay in the ayatollahs nuclear program.

On the security side, the situation is even more complicated. Most of the top brass over the years supported the original agreement. They saw it as the least bad alternative. In advance of the renewal of the talks, military Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi to whom some ascribe political ambitions hastened to make public his position that is, the Israel Defense Forces opposition to any kind of new agreement. Between Gantzs positions and Bennetts (it is not yet clear where Lapid stands), it is certainly possible to discern daylight, as the Americans say. They are not in disagreement regarding the overarching aim: preventing a bad agreement thats full of holes and building a military option. However, they do not agree on the boundaries of the discourse, the cooperation and the manner of dialogue with the Americans.

At the Haaretz Conference, Gantz said he would support an agreement that is better and stronger, which will set Iran back and deny it nuclear capabilities while restoring effective inspection and supervision of the nuclear sites. At the moment, he noted, we arent there. Bennetts remarks werent as vivid. Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who, like Bennett, served in the past as defense minister, threw out an interesting comment this week: Within five years, and this is still a conservative estimate, he said, Iran will be a nuclear power with proven capability.

It could be that Lieberman is letting himself say aloud what Bennett knows but wont dare make public.

There is no doubt: Bennett is constrained. Between his ideology and his shrinking electoral base, along with the public consensus against the agreement, he really doesnt have freedom to act. He cant keep silent his rivals from the right will swoop down on him. But he promised Joe Biden, in their private conversation in the residential wing of the White House towards the end of August, that he, unlike you-know-who, will not conduct a public campaign against the administration. He will not act behind the presidents back in Congress. He will express Israels position, and the practical work will be conducted through the diplomatic channels. Biden appreciated this. Feel free to call us any time you want to talk, he told Bennett.

Bennett cant support the agreement but he can regulate the height of the flames in the most important bilateral relationship Israel has. Still: Not construction in the territories, not a military operation in the Gaza Strip, not an American consulate in East Jerusalem its the nuclear talks that hold the potential for the first real clash between Jerusalem and Washington.

In the triangle between Vienna, Washington and Jerusalem, a double game will be played. Out of one side of the mouth, tough words will be spoken against any agreement at all. At the same time, there will be feverish activity to influence the content of the agreement. In this, Biden will give a measure of forbearance to the current Israeli government, which had been withdrawn from the Netanyahu government because of its political action against the Obama administration, action that aimed more for gains at home than at influencing the Americans. The two sides now will quarrel in broad daylight and reconcile in the shadows.

Legacy

A highly placed government source told me this week that public discussion will begin over Benjamin Netanyahus real heritage on the subject of the Iranian nuclear program. And what is it, I asked.

One big bluff, he replied.

For many long years Netanyahu was Mr. Iran. The sophisticated PR machine he had at his disposal, and most notably his own proven abilities in that area, built up an image that other politicians found difficult to puncture. Ehud Barak did his very best, and so did Ehud Olmert and of course also the heads of the espionage and intelligence agencies who have since retired. But there was always one prime minister, and oppositionists with rapidly approaching expiration dates.

Bennetts entry into the Prime Ministers Office last June introduced him to the material. For about five weeks he conducted a policy review, a re-examination of Israels policy on Iran: hours, almost daily, of discussions, PowerPoint presentations and summations.

Bennett articulated his conclusions in a statement he declaims frequently, this week too: I was astonished by the gap between the rhetoric and the deeds. I found a disturbing distance between statements that we will never allow Iran to go nuclear and the legacy we have received. The mistake we made after 2015 will not repeat itself.

I asked the source what he meant by one big bluff. He gave an example: In Netanyahus last half year in power, between January and June of this year, Trump left and a Democratic administration came in. The Iranians were no longer afraid of an attack. They stepped on the gas and went full speed ahead towards a bomb. Then it became clear to us that Trumps sanctions hadnt borne the anticipated fruit, and Americas withdrawal from the agreement not only didnt improve the objective situation but even made it worse. During that critical period, Bibi did not recalibrate the Israeli strategy to the new situation. He simply rolled on.

The issue of the Iranian atomic program is an important element in the legacies of all prime ministers since Yitzhak Rabin (in his second term). Bennetts industrial peace in the international arena is not promising success in this area. Domestically, the prime minister and the foreign minister are working well together on the matter. There is even coordination with Gantz on the nuclear issue. But within their respective offices and between them, there is some dissonance.

Thus, on the eve of the renewal of the talks, some of the players in that sensitive area believe that the task is too big for Shimrit Meir, Naftali Bennetts political adviser. Meir is officially defined as his bureaus liaison with Washington. Someone whom we shall call a high-ranking diplomatic source, and who wants Bennett to succeed, met the prime minister recently and suggested that he strengthen Meirs position. He told him that he needs an uber-adviser, a heavy hitter, an experienced hand who has held important diplomatic positions in Israel and abroad. An Arabist, even if she is talented, isnt enough. The man proposed a number of names, headed by Ron Prosor, formerly the director-general of the Foreign Ministry and ambassador to a number of countries. Bennett, as of now, hasnt taken the advice.

They dont give, they wont get

The passage of the national budget about three weeks ago hasnt benefited the opposition. A kind of slackness has spread through its ranks. The margins in the Knesset votes are a lot larger than two MKs worth, which is the difference between it and the coalition. The oppositionist strategy that its leaders adopted, and into which the remnants of its bloc were dragged at the time the coalition was being formed, has led them into a dead end. They are having a hard time surviving the long, sad nights in the Knesset plenum. The childish absence of top Likud members from the committees is hurting only them. They are even refusing to establish the Knesset State Control Committee, which by law must be headed by a representative of the opposition, and which has the power to rattle the government ministries. Theyve turned the tantrum into a method of operation.

Netanyahu is winding up a less than spectacular week. The critical headlines chased him: Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit wrote to the High Court of Justice that Netanyahu had to pay back the money he received from his cousin Nathan Milikowsky, who died a few months ago, and his friend Spencer Partrich $300,000 to the former, actually to his estate, and 2 million shekels ($630,000) to the latter.

The items of jewelry worth hundreds of thousands of shekels that were given to his wife by their personal pair of billionaires, Arnon Milchan and James Packer, could reopen and broaden Case 1000, which in any case is bursting with corrupt merchandise. Nir Hefetzs testimony this week drew a disturbing picture of an obsessed, crazed family with criminal behavior patterns and an uncontrollable fixation on the media. The head of the family came across as enslaved by his wife and son. (They wipe the floor with him, Likud MK David Amsalem would say, and we will get to him soon.)

The defeat experienced by Netanyahu and his partners in the vote on a term limit was definitive, 66 to 48. What didnt they say about the bill? Syrian! Iranian! North Korean!" (or "North Iranian! in the words of Likud geopolitical expert MK May Golan). The difference between the cries of distress and the margin of the vote was embarrassing. It turns out they hadnt even convinced themselves.

Netanyahus personal war against limiting a prime ministers term to eight years was not rational in any respect. Most of the public supports the idea. The law isnt retroactive, so there isnt the slightest bit of anything personal in it. He can be re-elected again, say three years from now, to serve until the age of 83 and then cancel the decree and forge ahead. The leader of the opposition didnt even bother to make a speech during the debate. He hid out in the bowels of the Knesset while the initiator of the bill, Justice Minister Gideon Saar, abused him with great pleasure from the podium. When Netanyahus turn came, he entered the hall, voted no and disappeared.

Saar enlisted the support of the six members of the Arab-majority Joint List. In his first term in office, Netanyahu coined the expression in reference to the Palestinians: If they give, theyll get; if they dont give they wont get. The members of the Joint List are only getting. If they were to show Likud the same oppositionist loyalty that the Likudniks display towards them, in votes that are important to them, the Basic Law that requires a special majority would not have passed. Yamina MK Yomtob Kalfon was absent from the Knesset plenum during the vote, violating coalition discipline. He is the coalitions 61st MK. He too, it turns out, is a weak link.

Every week has its contretemps in the prime ministers party. This week there were two: Kalfons absence and the opening of a criminal investigation against Abir Kara, deputy minister in the Prime Ministers Office, on suspicion of double voting. The precedent Bennett has chalked up as a prime minister from a tiny party isnt the only one. He is also the first prime minister who has relied more on his coalition partners at moments of truth than on the members of his own party. Historically, lawmakers from the ruling party are the responsible adults, the kindergarten teachers in the Knesset, the soothers and conciliators of their partners. In the current coalition, it is Lapid and his colleagues in Yesh Atid who are playing that role.

Kalfon was marked out as a potential rebel on the eve of the crucial vote on the 2021-2022 budget. He withstood the pressure. In Bennetts circle they are watching him closely. He is religious, an immigrant from France. The French community in Israel is considered supportive of Likud and Netanyahu. If the ill omens prevail, Religious Affairs Minister Matan Kahana will deign to return to the Knesset, which he left under the so-called Norwegian arrangement whereby cabinet ministers can leave the Knesset to devote themselves more fully to their ministries, and have the next person on their partys slate enter the Knesset in their stead until the minister, for whatever reason, returns to the Knesset. Kalfon, one of the many Norwegian lawmakers now, will return to his private law practice.

Fear and calculation

Likud MK Yuli Edelstein came to Reichman University this week for the annual Herzliya Conference. Interviewer Sefi Ovadia quoted to Edelstein a few paragraphs from Likud colleague Amsalem:

Attorney generals are like ravaging wolves, they have to be put in a cage .... [Menachem] Begins story that there are judges in Jerusalem that judicial rulings must be adhered to is over. Amsalem finished with: There's no justice anymore. Ovadia asked: Is this view popular with you guys?

Likud is a large party, a movement, it has absolutely everything, Edelstein, a former Knesset speaker, replied. Including a black sheep, and maybe more than one. Let me remind you who came in first in the most recent primary. (He did, but that was a long time ago.) It was somebody who doesnt curse a lot.

A few hours later, Edelstein phoned Amsalem to tell him he wasnt referring to him as a black sheep or a guy who curses a lot.

I watched the Edelstein interview a few times. I was disappointed and felt sorry for him. When he was young he wasnt afraid to go head to head with the Soviets he was sentenced on false charges and did hard labor in the Gulag. What does Amsalem have that scared him more than this?

Alas, no one from Likud has dared say a word about the filth and curses Edelstein spewed on members of his caucus in that interview that was shown online. Are they afraid of him, and of party members whose support hell solicit in the future?

Netanyahu believes that the extremist language above which hes supposedly floating is beneficial to him and Likud. Not likely. The Amsalem phenomenon and that of Likudniks Shlomo Karhi, Galit Distal Atbaryan, May Golan and their spiritual mother Miri Regev is exactly what prevented Netanyahu from obtaining the majority needed to form a government after the last election.

Veteran Likudniks who got disgusted with their party left, completing the exile to the renegade New Hope party and knocked Netanyahu out of the premiership. The Likud bunch mentioned above didnt bring in any Knesset seats for the party but merely provided a loud and rude retinue for the famiglia boss under criminal indictment.

Selective memory

On Wednesday the Knesset discussed Likud MK Yariv Levins bill to add Menachem Begin to the very short list (David Ben-Gurion and Yitzhak Rabin) of prime ministers whose death date is a national memorial day. Well, Begin and Levin belonged to the same party, and Begin was Levins godfather at his circumcision ceremony, but its still worth wondering what connection the lawmaker has to the legendary leader.

Begins legacy is more diverse than those of other prime ministers, Levin argued. He listed this legacy's main features: security, settlements, diplomatic and security independence, social affairs. (In this, historians will attest, Begin is no different from Ben-Gurion, Levi Eshkol, Rabin and Ariel Sharon.) I think that of all the things Begin left behind, the most important is that there wasn't a civil war, Levin said.

He referred, rightly, to Begin's order to the right-wing Irgun paramilitary in June 1948 not to fire on the Israeli soldiers who sank the Altalena arms ship and killed 16 members of the organization.

For some reason Levin, who's also former Knesset speaker, didnt mention Begins commitment to the rule of law and the primacy of the courts. He didn't mention the dignity with which Begin treated the opposition, his respect for the rules of the parliamentary game during his 29 years as opposition leader. (For example, he would never have dreamed of boycotting the Knesset committees.)

Levin also didnt mention the great respect Begin had for attorney generals, the law enforcement agencies, the public servants. Begin didnt call them bureaucrats, didn't incite against them, didn't sic his supporters on them and didn't disparage them the way the politician for whom Levin is the consigliere has been doing for many years.

And Levin is the guy who calls the Supreme Court justices a dictatorship, a bunch of radical leftists and tainted by personal interests, part of the wacko agenda hes leading against the court.

It was Levin who advised Edelstein to defy a Supreme Court ruling. As Levin put it, if the court's president, Esther Hayut, wants to put herself above the Knesset, she is welcome to come to the building with the courts guards and open the plenary session herself .... That way it will be clear that its a coup by a handful of judges.

New Hope's Zeev Elkin, a former Likudnik, replied on behalf of the government. He reminded Levin of Begin's comment that a leader's long term in office is a danger to the freedom and morality of the nation, and it breeds corruption. (Elkin was talking about the term-limit bill that had been passed two days earlier.)

Its a good thing Levin wont be in charge of the memorial day for Begin. He would ban mention of all that rule-of-law mumbo jumbo and the There are judges in Jerusalem comment. Basically, Levin is Amsalem in a suit. Begin would have been ashamed of him.

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Tension at the core: Bennett goes head-to-head with U.S. over Iran - Haaretz