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Since the Syrian civil war began in 2011, Iran has been one of Mr. Assads chief allies, deploying thousands of Hezbollah and other Shiite fighters and providing other forms of aid to help him beat back Syrian rebels. Irans interests in Syria are thus markedly different from its interests in Iraq. In Iraq it has fought ISIS. In Syria, its focus has been on helping the Assad regime.

It is in Syria where the interests of Iran and the United States are most sharply at odds, and in Iraq where they most nearly converge. American and Iraqi security forces have just about driven ISIS from Mosul, a major Iraqi city. In Syria, America is also seeking to crush ISIS, but is doing so in concert with Syrian opposition forces, not Mr. Assad, whom it has long opposed.

As in Iraq, the fight against ISIS is going well; ISIS is close to being routed from its headquarters in the city of Raqqa. But the prospect of victory has opened the door to new tensions between American-led forces and Iranian-Syrian forces. That has manifested itself in a series of encounters this month in which the United States shot down a Syrian warplane, came close to shooting down another and downed two Iranian-made drones that were nearing American-backed troops on the ground. Iran, meanwhile, used ballistic missiles against ISIS targets.

ISIS now controls only about half the territory it once held in Syria, and, as the space shrinks, the various combatants are concentrating on a smaller area, along Syrias eastern border with Iraq and Jordan and in the Euphrates River Valley, home to oil reserves and water.

Administration officials suspect that Iran is more interested in controlling territory in these areas than defeating ISIS, and that the presence of Iranian and Syrian government forces could impede the American-led effort to finish ISIS off in Raqqa. It could also obstruct American plans to establish outposts in the Syrian and Western Iraqi desert so that fleeing ISIS fighters can be killed or captured, thus preventing them from hunkering down and later re-emerging as a threat, these officials say.

Adding to the combustible environment is Russia, the other major Assad defender, which threatened to retaliate to what Washington called its recent self defense moves by treating American planes as targets. Despite this, administration officials, reflecting a president who shares Saudi Arabias hard-line anti-Iran views, seem to consider Iran a bigger problem than Moscow and one that could threaten Israel, Jordan and other allies.

Could Mr. Trump stumble into a wider war in Syria? There are reasons to worry. He has yet to offer a comprehensive plan for dealing with Syria, including the diplomacy needed to develop a political solution to end the civil war, which could create a more stable country less vulnerable to extremist groups.

The fear is that Mr. Trumps demonizing of Iran, and his unwillingness to engage its government, could result in a broadening of the American military mission from defeating ISIS to preventing Iranian influence from expanding. This would be dangerous. Iran is a vexing state to be smartly managed, not assumed to be an implacable enemy.

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The Iran Puzzle - New York Times