U.S. and Iran Want to Restore the Nuclear Deal. They Disagree …
President Biden and Irans leaders say they share a common goal: They both want to re-enter the nuclear deal that President Donald J. Trump scrapped three years ago, restoring the bargain that Iran would keep sharp limits on its production of nuclear fuel in return for a lifting of sanctions that have choked its economy.
But after five weeks of shadow boxing in Vienna hotel rooms where the two sides pass notes through European intermediaries it has become clear that the old deal, strictly defined, does not work for either of them anymore, at least in the long run.
The Iranians are demanding that they be allowed to keep the advanced nuclear-fuel production equipment they installed after Mr. Trump abandoned the pact, and integration with the world financial system beyond what they achieved under the 2015 agreement.
The Biden administration, for its part, says that restoring the old deal is just a steppingstone. It must be followed immediately by an agreement on limiting missiles and support of terrorism and making it impossible for Iran to produce enough fuel for a bomb for decades. The Iranians say no way.
Now, as negotiators engage again in Vienna, where a new round of talks began on Friday, the Biden administration finds itself at a crucial decision point. Restoring the 2015 accord, with all its flaws, seems doable, interviews with European, Iranian and American officials suggest. But getting what Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken has called a longer and stronger accord one that stops Iran from amassing nuclear material for generations, halts its missile tests and ends support of terrorist groups looks as far away as ever.
That is potentially a major political vulnerability for Mr. Biden, who knows he cannot simply replicate what the Obama administration negotiated six years ago, after marathon sessions in Vienna and elsewhere, while offering vague promises that something far bigger and better might follow.
Iran and the United States are really negotiating different deals, said Vali R. Nasr, a former American official who is now at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. Its why the talks are so slow.
The Americans see the restoration of the old deal as a first step to something far bigger. And they are encouraged by Irans desire to relax a series of financial restrictions that go beyond that deal mostly involving conducting transactions with Western banks because it would create what one senior administration official called a ripe circumstance for a negotiation on a follow-on agreement.
The Iranians refuse to even discuss a larger agreement. And American officials say it is not yet clear that Iran really wants to restore the old deal, which is derided by powerful hard-liners at home.
With Irans presidential elections six weeks away, the relatively moderate, lame-duck team of President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif are spinning that an agreement is just around the corner. Almost all the main sanctions have been removed, Mr. Rouhani told Iranians on Saturday, apparently referring to the American outline of what is possible if Tehran restores the sharp limits on nuclear production. Negotiations are underway for some details.
Not so fast, Mr. Blinken has responded. He and European diplomats underscore that Iran has yet to make an equally detailed description of what nuclear limits would be restored.
But even if it does, how Mr. Biden persuades what will almost surely be a new hard-line Iranian government to commit to further talks to lengthen and strengthen the deal is a question American officials have a hard time answering. But Mr. Bidens aides say their strategy is premised on the thought that restoring the old deal will create greater international unity, especially with Europeans who objected strenuously to Mr. Trumps decision to exit a deal that was working. And even the old deal, one senior official said, put a serious lid on Irans nuclear program.
Hovering outside the talks are the Israelis, who continue a campaign of sabotage and assassination to cripple the Iranian program and perhaps the negotiations themselves. So it was notable that the director of the Mossad, who has led those operations, was recently ushered into the White House for a meeting with the president. After an explosion at the Natanz nuclear plant last month, Mr. Biden told aides that the timing just as the United States was beginning to make progress on restoring the accord was suspicious.
The split with Israel remains. In the meetings in Washington last week which included Mr. Blinken; the C.I.A. director, William J. Burns; and the national security adviser, Jake Sullivan Israeli officials argued that the United States was nave to return to the old accord, which they think preserved a nascent nuclear breakout capability.
Mr. Bidens top aides argued that three years of maximum pressure on Iran engineered by Mr. Trump and his secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, had failed to break its government or limit its support of terrorism. In fact, it had prompted nuclear breakout.
In Vienna, by all accounts, the lead negotiator, Robert Malley whose relationship with Mr. Blinken goes back to the high school they attended together in Paris has made a significant offer on lifting sanctions inconsistent with the original deal.
On Wednesday, Mr. Blinken said that the United States had demonstrated our very seriousness of purpose in returning to the deal.
What we dont yet know is whether Iran is prepared to make the same decision and to move forward, he told the BBC.
May 13, 2021, 6:20 p.m. ET
Iran wants more sanctions lifted than the United States judges consistent with the deal, while insisting on keeping more of its nuclear infrastructure in particular advanced centrifuges than that deal permits. Instead, Iran argues that the International Atomic Energy Agency should simply inspect the new centrifuges, a position that is unacceptable to Washington.
While the talks continue, Iran is keeping up the pressure by adding to its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and the equipment to make it, all in violation of the deal.
Both Iran and the United States are working under delicate political constraints. Even as Irans supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has supported the Vienna talks, Mr. Rouhani and Mr. Zarif are mocked by powerful conservatives who do not trust Washington and who expect to capture the presidency.
For his part, Mr. Biden must contend with a Congress that is highly skeptical of a deal and largely sympathetic to the concerns of Israel.
But with the Iranian elections close, time is pressing, and the Biden administration lost significant chunks of it as its negotiating position has evolved, officials say. The Americans initially demanded that Iran return to compliance, and then chose to keep some of the Trump administrations sanctions in place as leverage to try to force a broader negotiation.
In two discussions in February, the Europeans urged American officials to start negotiating in earnest and lift some sanctions as a gesture of good faith toward Iran. Those suggestions were ignored. But when Ayatollah Khamenei said that the country could proceed to enrich uranium up to 60 percent purity as opposed to the 3.67 percent limit in the nuclear deal Washington took matters more seriously, officials said, fearing that it would further diminish the so-called breakout time for Iran to get enough material for a bomb.
It was only at the end of March that the two sides agreed to negotiate the whole deal at once, and the Vienna talks began in early April. Then it took more time for the Americans to concede that returning to the 2015 deal as it was written was the best and perhaps only way to build enough trust with Iran that its leaders might even consider broader, follow-on talks.
Three working groups have been established: one to discuss which sanctions Washington must lift, one to discuss how Iran returns to the enrichment limits and one to discuss how to sequence the mutual return. Iran has not yet engaged seriously on its plans, still insisting that Washington move first, but another sticking point remains: which sanctions will be lifted.
Mr. Trump restored or imposed more than 1,500 sanctions in an effort to prevent a renewal of the pact. The sanctions have been put into three baskets green, yellow and red, depending on how clearly they are inconsistent with the deal. Green will be lifted; yellow must be negotiated; and red will stay, including, for example, sanctions on individuals for human-rights violations.
Deciding which sanctions to lift is politically delicate for both countries. For example, in the yellow category, Iran insists that a Trump-era sanction of its central bank under a terrorism designation must be lifted because it damages trade. But it would be even more complicated for Washington to lift the terrorism designation on the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the officials said.
For the Iranians to agree to a deal that does not resolve the designation of the Guards would be a hard sell, even for the supreme leader.
For Biden, its hard to justify lifting sanctions against institutions still threatening U.S. interests in the region, and its hard for Rouhani to go home boasting about lifting all sanctions except those on his rivals, said Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group.
Its a fragile process, Mr. Vaez said, noting Irans rocket attacks in Iraq. If a single American is killed, the whole process is derailed.
But how Mr. Biden gets Iran to move to negotiate a better or new accord is the question.
American officials have no real answer to this dilemma as they try to resurrect the old deal, but they assert that Iran, too, wants more benefits than the old deal provided, so it should be willing to talk further. The Americans say they are ready to discuss how to strengthen the deal to mutual benefit, but they say that would be a decision for Iran to make.
Despite Irans pressure tactics increasing enrichment to just short of bomb grade in small quantities and barring international inspectors from key sites in late February Mr. Zarif insists that these moves are easily reversible.
American intelligence officials say that while Iran has bolstered its production of nuclear material and is probably only months from being able to produce enough highly enriched uranium for one or two bombs even now, there is no evidence Iran is advancing on its work to fashion a warhead. We continue to assess that Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that we judge would be necessary to produce a nuclear device, Avril D. Haines, the director of national intelligence, said in a report last month.
The Israelis are more skeptical, arguing that evidence they stole from a warehouse archive of Irans nuclear program three years ago shows that Iranian scientists had already done extensive work on warhead design.
Mr. Blinken says that the Vienna talks are intended to return to the stability and oversight of Irans nuclear program that the 2015 deal provided until it was abandoned by Mr. Trump.
So theres nothing nave about this. On the contrary, its a very cleareyed way of dealing with a problem that was dealt with effectively by the J.C.P.O.A., Mr. Blinken said, referring to the 2015 deal. Well have to see if we can do the same thing again.
The atmosphere in Iran has been complicated by a recent scandal over Mr. Zarif, whose criticism of internal decision-making recently leaked, apparently in an effort to damage his reputation and any chance he had to run for the presidency.
Ayatollah Khamenei refuted the criticism without naming Mr. Zarif, but he said the comments were a big mistake that must not be made by an official of the Islamic Republic and a repetition of what Irans enemies say.
At the same time, by downplaying Mr. Zarifs role, the supreme leader reaffirmed his support for the talks while also sheltering them from criticism by hard-liners, said Ellie Geranmayeh of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Steven Erlanger reported from Brussels, and David E. Sanger from Washington. Farnaz Fassihi contributed reporting from New York.
Read the rest here:
U.S. and Iran Want to Restore the Nuclear Deal. They Disagree ...
- Trump says he hopes not to have to support Israeli attack on Iran - - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump: Would be nice to solve problems with Iran without Israeli strikes - The Times of Israel - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- From Iran to European nations: What does the world expect from Trump? - Israel Hayom - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- The Farda Briefing: Iran Talks Tough But Signals Openness For Negotiations With U.S. - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- What a Secretary of State Rubio means for the Middle East: Getting tougher on Iran and tighter with allies - Atlantic Council - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump revokes protections for former Secretary of State Pompeo and top aide threatened by Iran - The Associated Press - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- UN chief Guterres calls on Iran to renounce nuclear weapons - Reuters - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Davos- Iran's Zarif says he hopes Trump will choose 'rationality' - Reuters - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Conscience Held Captive: The State of Religious Minorities in Iran - IranWire | - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump will seek snapback of UN sanctions on Iran, Rubio says - - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump says hes hopeful Iran deal can be reached without Israeli military strike on nuclear program - All Israel News - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump has few good options to prevent Iran from building a nuclear bomb - The Conversation - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Italian journalist detained in Iran says she expected to be held longer and praises Musk's role - The Associated Press - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Why Russia and Iran signed a new 'strategic partnership' - Le Monde - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Iran and Russia deepen cyber ties with new agreement - The Record from Recorded Future News - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Saudi FM says Trump presidency doesnt raise risk of Iran-Israel war - The Times of Israel - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Over 1,000 tons of missile fuel chemicals head for Iran from China report - The Jerusalem Post - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Iran says it hopes Trump will take realistic approach, show respect to Mideast - The Times of Israel - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump ends Secret Service protection for John Bolton as Iran threat persists - WBAL TV Baltimore - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- How Iran Lost Before It Lost - RealClearWorld - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- The alliance of outcasts: Closer ties between Russia and Iran bring benefits and new enemies for both nations - The Insider - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump revokes security detail for Mike Pompeo, years after Iran threatened to kill the then-secretary of State - New York Post - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trumps Iran Policy Puts Focus on $30 Billion-a-Year Oil Revenue - Bloomberg - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Iran unveils new underground naval base amid tension with US and Israel - Reuters - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Iran pushing for better ties with Azerbaijan: Why and how? - analysis - The Jerusalem Post - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump fires his former Iran envoy Brian Hook on first day | Iran International - - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Interpreting the 20-year military pact between Russia & Iran - Responsible Statecraft - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Russia and Iran have a troubled history despite their current alliance - The Associated Press - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump: 'It Would Be Really Nice' if Iran Issues Could Be Worked Out Without Israeli Strikes on Nuclear Sites - Haaretz - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump to appoint Mideast envoy Witkoff to handle the Iran portfolio - Ynetnews - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Musk Said to Have Intervened to Help Free Italian Jailed in Iran - The New York Times - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- Iran calls pending Gaza deal a defeat for Israel, as leaders worldwide welcome pact - The Times of Israel - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- Russia and Iran sign cooperation treaty days before Trump's inauguration - Euronews - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- Putin and Iran's president sign 20-year treaty, strengthening ties - CBS News - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- Making Iran Choose Between the Bomb and Bankruptcy - The Washington Institute - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- Iran unveils underground naval base as it seeks to counter Israeli threat - Sky News - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- Russia's Strategic Treaty With Iran May Have Nuclear Angle - Newsweek - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Russia and Iran to sign partnership treaty this week - POLITICO Europe - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Iran, already on the defensive, braces for second Trump term - The Washington Post - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Russia says Iran's president will visit this week and sign a partnership pact with Putin - ABC News - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Reform is Happening in Iran and Assads Fall Could Accelerate It - Stimson Center - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Iran welcomes return of national held in Italy in spat involving the US - Al Jazeera English - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Iran holding war games as it faces Israel tensions, Trump's return - Reuters - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Iran, European powers hold third round of nuclear talks in Geneva - - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Will Iran build a nuclear bomb while Trump is in power in the US? - Al Jazeera English - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Iran nuclear talks resume ahead of Trump's return: What's at stake? - Perspective - FRANCE 24 English - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Iran Gets Major Drone Boost Amid Growing Tensions With Israel - Newsweek - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Frenchman held in Iran since 2022 reveals identity in audio message - FRANCE 24 English - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Trump Urged to Reapply Maximum Pressure on Iran in New Strategic Blueprint - BTW21 - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Iran expands military drills to two more nuclear sites in countrys west and center - The Times of Israel - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Germany welcomes release of German-Iranian rights activist from prison in Iran and her return home - Yahoo! Voices - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Opinion | Iran is weak, and should be ready to negotiate - The Washington Post - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Swiss citizen dies in Iran prison after spying arrest - BBC.com - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Russia, Iran to sign comprehensive strategic partnership treaty on Friday, Kremlin says - The Times of Israel - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- UK should back tough Trump sanctions on Iran, report says - The Guardian - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Iran has run out of space to store its missiles, IRGC chief says - - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Iran sending covert missions to Russia for help developing nuclear program The Times - Meduza - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Iran's Malign Activities in Europe: Sweden Raises Alarm Over Organized Crime Involvement - Iran News Update - January 13th, 2025 [January 13th, 2025]
- Iran puts on show of force with war games ahead of Trump's second term - CBS News - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- An American hostage during the Iran crisis remembers Jimmy Carter - BBC.com - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- How Iran moves sanctioned oil around the world - Reuters - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Italian journalist Cecilia Sala released by Iran - The Washington Post - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Angry Trump roasts journalist when asked about Iran military strategy - The Independent - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- UN says Iran executed over 900 people in 2024, including dozens of women - Reuters - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- An Italian journalist is freed from detention in Iran and returns home - The Associated Press - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- The Iran Opportunity: What America Needs to Do to Achieve a Breakthrough - Foreign Affairs Magazine - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- France says conditions of citizens held in Iran akin to torture - Reuters - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Iran Pulls Most Forces From Syria, in Blow to Tehrans Regional Ambitions - The Wall Street Journal - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Shipping in the Crosshairs: What Trumps Return Could Mean for Iran and Maritime Trade - gCaptain - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- OPEC oil output falls in December on UAE and Iran, survey finds - Reuters - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Yakuza boss pleads guilty to attempted nuclear trafficking to Iran - - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Iran to hold talks over its nuclear programme with European countries - Euronews - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Five years since the downing of Ukrainian airliner by Iran - Ukrainian World Congress - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Iran hostages reflect on a crisis that defined Jimmy Carters presidency: A fine man that did his best - The Guardian US - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Activists in Iran describe the threats and oppression they face for protesting - PBS NewsHour - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Iran diverts focus to West Bank after fall of Assad, Israel says - - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- World News in Brief: Deadly China quake, Killings of Alawites in Syria, executions in Iran, CAR rights defenders, finance and food crises - UN News - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Turkey-backed Syria may be bigger threat than Iran, says Israeli government panel - Middle East Eye - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Tehrans proxies are on the back foot. An Iran-Russia defense pact could revive them. - Breaking Defense - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Italian PM says unaware of any Musk role in journalist's release from Iran - - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]