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A Turkish army tank drives toward the Turkish-Syrian border at Karkamis in southeastern Gaziantep province, Turkey, Aug. 25, 2016. (photo byREUTERS/Umit Bektas)

Author:Hamdi Malik Posted April 19, 2017

Having announced the end of Operation Euphrates Shield in Syria on March 29, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan shortly thereafter declared a pendingnew stageof the operation, but on Iraqi soil. Any such operation is expected to exacerbate the myriad conflicts in the area.

TranslatorMuhammed Hussein Tal'at

Erdogan announcedthe new operation in an April 4television interview with the Anadolu Agency. Identifying Turkey's targets, he said, There are the Tal Afar and Sinjar situations. We also have kin in Mosul.The kin Erdogan referred to areTurkmens.During anApril7 TV interview,Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusogluconfirmed the government's plansfor an Iraqcampaign and explained Sinjar's importance. The PKK [Kurdistan Workers Party]wants to build its own camp in Sinjar, which we cannot allow,he said. We will undertake a [military] intervention, or they [PKK forces] will cross our borders to launch terrorist attacks. No time frame has beenpublicly announcedfor the Iraqoperation.

PKK forces entered Sinjar in 2014, after Islamic State militants attacked the area, which is inhabited primarily byYazidis.The heavy presence of PKK forces in the area has caused disputes among Kurdish factions. In March, bloody clashes erupted between the PKK-affiliated Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS)and the Rojavapeshmergaaffiliated with theKurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and supported by Ankara. The PKK sees the clashes as being related to avisitto Turkey by KDP leader and Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government PresidentMassoud Barzani. Meanwhile, the KDP has accused Iran of supporting the YBS as part of itsShiite Crescent project.

Turkey already hasmilitary forces in Iraq, at Bashiqa, a situation that has caused tensions with Baghdad. Turkey claims the troops are there merely to help train fighters in prepartion for taking Mosul from IS.Baghdad claims they are violating Iraqi sovereignty andhas called for their withdrawal. It appears that Turkey would needa comprehensive military invasion to drive thePKK from the Sinjar area, as airstrikes alone, which Turkey has conducted in the Qandil mountainsagainst PKK targets,are unlikelyto achieve Ankara's announced goal. It is possible that Turkey might use its forces in the Bashiqa camp to help do so.

The Bashiqa camp has been hemmed into the southby Baghdad-controlled joint forces, asorderedby Iraqi Prime MinisterHaider al-Abadi, sothe only way for Turkish forces in Iraq to reach Sinjar by land is to pass through areas controlled by the KDP. Would the KDPallowa foreign force to cross that territory to attack another Kurdish force?

Rabwar Fattah, director of the London-basedMiddle East Consultancy Service, told Al-Monitorin a phone interview, This step would be met with strong objectionby the Kurdish people in the region. However, the KDP leadership does not have many options, so if Turkey decides to take this step, the step will be taken regardless of what the leadership thinks.

The Baghdad government has publicly rejectedTurkish military operations in Iraq. The [Iraqi] government will not allow any external side to carry out military operations on the ground, including Turkey or any other state, Iraqi government spokesman Saad al-HadithisaidApril 7.

In fact, however, the central government in Baghdad also does not have many options if Turkey decides to launcha ground offensivein Sinjar. Opting for a direct military confrontation is unlikely, because Iraqi forces have their hands fullfightingIS, and Turkey has the advantage of superiorair power.

The diplomatic option does not appear to offer much either, as Baghdad has repeatedly requested that Turkey withdraw its forces from Iraqi territory. The Iraqis have requested backing for its position frominternational and regional organizations, includingthe UN Security Council and the Arab League, but in vain.

Further complicating the picture, Ankarahas accused Iran of using the PKK forces in Sinjar to secure a corridor from Iran to the Mediterranean. When we look at it all, there is a broad influence for Iranian and Persian nationalism based on sects in Iraq,Erdogan said in theAnadolu interview, expressing dissatisfaction with Irans role in Iraq.

The Turkish-Iranian conflict has recently taken a new turn, with armed Iraqi Shiite factions affiliated with Iran threateningto attack the Turkish forces in Iraq. Turkish military operations in Iraq would make such a confrontationmore likely. Moreover, any Turkish military advantagewouldnot safeguard its forcesagainst painful military strikes, as the Shiite factions have the expertise and support to strike Turkish forcesas they didUS forces when they occupied the country.

Tehran will not accept further Turkish military intervention in Iraq, Afshin Shahi, senior lecturer in international relations and Middle East politics at Bradford University, told Al-Monitor. Such military operations, if conducted, will transform the Iraqi situation into something similar to Syria, as it is likely to lead to proxy clashes in Iraq between Iran and Turkey.

Indeed, should Ankara follow through with Euphrates Shield Iraq,it appears almost certain that it would ignitemilitary escalation beyond its immediate targets and exacerbate thebattle between alliedblocs in Iraq and perhaps the region.

Read More: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/04/iraq-turkey-iran-sinjar-pkk-kurdistan.html

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Ankara not backing down from Iraq intervention - Al-Monitor