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The group stage is over, the knockout rounds begin and good riddance.

I dont care if this was an off-year Gold Cup with a lot of B teams, most of the group stage games were uninteresting and/or bad to watch. This perhaps goes especially for the United States and Mexico, the two best nations in the region. There were hardly any upsets to speak of and the only storylines worth mentioning from the group stage were French Guianas forfeit and Alphonso Davies of Canada lighting it up before getting hurt.

Hopefully the Gold Cup knockout rounds can add something resembling excitement and drama, which we saw very little of in the group matches. The favorites for the most part got results even if they made it hard on themselves in the process for long stretches. The quarterfinal matchups are fairly interesting with the parity established during group games leading to interesting sides of the bracket leading to the final

The USMNT has called up six players to reinforce their squad while Mexico stood pat with their young roster of domestic LigaMX players. Canada added Cyle Larin to their roster, adding one of their best talents to a squad that made the quarterfinals for the first time since 2009. Costa Rica made a few changes as well and aside from keeper Keylor Navas they have been playing with a full senior roster from the beginning. Regional stalwarts Jamaica, Panama and Honduras are all knockout round threats while El Salvador is perhaps the only upstart left at this stage.

TV SCHEDULE (all games on FS1, all times Eastern)

Quarterfinals

Wednesday, July 19, 2017 (Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA)

QF1: Costa Rica vs. Panama, 6 p.m.

QF2: USA vs. El Salvador, 9 p.m.

Thursday, July 20, 2017 (Univ. of Pheonix Stadium, Glendale, AZ)

QF3: Mexico vs. Honduras, 7:30 p.m.

QF4: Jamaica vs. Canada, 10 p.m.

Semifinals

Saturday, July 22, 2017 (AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX)

QF1 Winner vs. QF2 Winner, 9:30 p.m.

Sunday, July 23, 2017 (Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA)

QF3 Winner vs. QF4 Winner, 8:30 p.m.

Final

Wednesday, July 26, 2017 (Levis Stadium, Santa Clara, CA)

SF1 Winner vs. SF2 Winner, 9:30 p.m.

QUARTERFINAL PRIMERS

QF1: Costa Rica vs. Panama

This could very well be the best pure matchup in the quarterfinals. Panama have been on the cusp of a World Cup for what seems like the last decade and Costa Rica is coming off a quarterfinal appearance in Brazil 2014. On paper, Costa Rica has the edge but its actually been Panama thats been the better team in the Gold Cup in recent tournaments. Costa Rica sits in second place of The Hex at 11 points with Panama in fourth place at 7 points.

Both teams won two games in the group stage, with Costa Ricas 1-0 win over Honduras probably the best win out of those. Panama was solid in their 1-1 draw against the USA and then took care of business versus Nicaragua and Martinique but werent overpowering. Not only is this matchup between two high level teams, but its also fairly even and could produce a lot of quality and late drama as I expect this one to remain close. If Panama doesnt have to sit back on the counter, a wide open game could be very exciting between these two sides though that might favor the Ticos style of play more. Costa Ricas offense wasnt all that great in the group stage, just beating Honduras 1-0 and getting shutout in a 0-0 draw to Canada. Despite that, you have to assume the Ticos will score in this one and try and force Panama into an more open game to take advantage of the usually solid Panama defense.

QF2: United States vs. El Salvador

The USMNT are perhaps fortunate to be the winners of Group B as they were level with Panama on points and clinched the top seed on a goals scored tiebreaker. This meant the US avoided not only Mexicos side of the bracket but also Costa Rica in this round. With six new players on the roster likely to be thrust into the starting lineup, drawing El Salvador here gives the USAs reinforcements a good game to acclimate to the national team after missing the group matches.

El Salvador to their credit are no strangers to the quarterfinals but were thrashed by the US 5-1 in this round back in 2013. Usually a third place finisher in the group stages, El Salvador can make things difficult for anyone they play against but at the same time dont pull off a lot of upsets. Remember those two PKs the USA missed against Nicaragua? The quarter and semifinal rounds wont go to extra time, but rather straight to the shootout. Food for thought if El Salvador can get a draw in regulation.

QF3: Jamaica vs. Canada

This might be the most fun match of round if both teams are willing to attack. We know these two sides are usually organized defensively but Canada in particular has struggled to score goals in recent years and Gold Cups. If Alphonso Davies is healthy and with Cyle Larin now on the roster, Canadas should have all the offensive firepower they need to get into the semifinals.

The real equalizer for this matchup is Jamaica keeper and former Connecticut Huskies player, Andre Blake. With Tim Howard in the twilight of his career and Navas not playing, Blake is probably the best keeper in the tournament. Jamaica can ride his heroics in net especially if they find themselves in a shootout during the knockout games. What makes this game so intriguing to me is that both teams can go Jekyll/Hyde on us at any point. Weve seen mostly good Canada so far but this is a team that hasnt played a Gold Cup knockout game in a while and that does bother me. Jamaica, though theyve been solid so far in this tournament, did crash out of World Cup qualifying in spectacularly bad fashion last year. Even if both teams show up with their bad forms, this game could still be fun to watch in my opinion, just maybe for different reasons that involve comedy and/or groaning. If both good teams show up, it should just be fun period.

QF4: Mexico vs. Honduas

Under a different circumstance, I would be really excited about this game because like Costa Rica-Panama, its between two teams in The Hex. However, Mexico is using their B team and Honduras was incredibly disappointing in the group stage and really only qualified as a third place team because of French Guianas forfeit.

All that being said, if Honduras shows up they can turn this into a very CONCACAF affair. What bothers me about Honduras is they didnt score at all in the group stage, their only goals were awarded via the 3-0 forfeit. While Antony Lozanos addition to the squad could help the attack, the good news is the Honduras defense only allowed a single goal in the group stage, to Costa Rica in a 1-0 loss. However, playing for a 0-0 draw and penalties for 90 minutes against El Tri doesnt seem like a viable strategy in this one. Honduras is going to have to score and likely more than once, if they want a shot to advance.

KNOCKOUT STAGE OVERVIEW

I really like the balance of the bracket in this one. Mexico might have the harder quarterfinal against Honduras, but it will be the Americans with the harder semifinal if both teams advance. If we assume the US and Mexico do advance, I think regardless of who wins the Jamaica-Canada and the Costa Rica-Panama match it will produce two excellent semifinal matches this weekend. All signs will always point to a USA-Mexico final until proven otherwise, but the group stage I think has proven this tournament could be very wide open. Im not entirely sure parity reigned in the group stage, but certainly no team ran away with their group or looked overly impressive in advancing to the quarterfinals except for perhaps Canada. Im banking on this theory to finally produce some good soccer in this tournament because if were being honest, we havent see much of it yet.

GOLD CUP KNOCKOUT PREDICTIONS

QF: Panama, United States, Canada, Mexico

SF: United States, Mexico

Champ: United States

I want to see a rematch of the US-Panama game in the semifinals and I also want to see just how good Canada is right now. In the end, the USAs roster reinforcements are the difference as they claim the title in extra time over Mexico.

Read the rest here:
Gold Cup 2017 Knockout Stage Primer - The Bent Musket (blog)