The stars must align for SA to claim glory

The Proteas' World Cup hopes hinge on fortune allowing their world-class players to keep shining.

He's made his name as a batsman but the Proteas will be relying on JP Duminy to bowl his share of overs in the upcoming World Cup. (Prakash Singh/AFP)

Optimism grows before every World Cup despite South Africa never winning a knockout game, and the 2015 edition is no different. Will this time be different?

This years belief is based on the brilliance of key individuals rather than the depth of the squad, but can a handful of players paper over some glaring cracks and win a tournament? Only with one, essential ingredient.

Luck.

A favourable draw in the knockout stages, particularly the quarterfinals, will be essential. Fourth place in Group A will face first place in Group B, and the second-placed teams in each group will play the teams that finish third in the opposite group.

If South Africa finish top of their group they will be highly unlikely to face Australia in the quarterfinals assuming Australia wont finish fourth. New Zealand, too, are unlikely to finish last of the qualifying teams, which leaves England or Sri Lanka as the likely opponents.

Struggling to ignite their campaign Neither side has enjoyed their best form in the build-up to the tournament and, if they struggle to ignite their campaign in the first month, will provide the Proteas with a less problematic route to the semifinals. Far easier, for example, than what would happen if Australia and South Africa both lost a game or two of their six group matches and finished in second and third places respectively.

Form and fitness are both fickle allies of the competing nations. Untimely injuries and peaks and troughs in individual form have affected the course of many a series and tournament. They are quickly forgotten once the trophy has been claimed but they have every bit as much an effect on the outcome as runs and wickets. Just without the headlines.

A loss of form for AB de Villiers, Hashim Amla or Dale Steyn could derail the campaign but a rich vein of it for someone unexpected Wayne Parnell or Quinton de Kock, for example could be the stroke of fortune that changes everything.

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The stars must align for SA to claim glory

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