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Testing an out-there idea: Lger was curious what would happen if the Liberals and NDP were to run one candidate between the two parties in every riding an extremely hypothetical scenario. Pollsters asked people for their thoughts on a one-time alliance, not a full-fledged merger.

The results: Although a LPC-NDP alliance would likely to defeat the Conservatives, it would not crush the right-of-center party.

Lgers poll shows that, under current conditions, the Conservatives lead in voting intentions with 36 percent of support nationwide, six points ahead of the Liberals at 30 percent. The New Democrats hover near 19 percent, which is their usual level of support.

The LPC-NDP alliance would collect 41 percent of support across the country, two points ahead of the Conservatives, who would garner 39 percent.

Election math: As separate parties the Liberals and NDP would win the support of nearly half the electorate (49 percent, a share similar to the 2021 election). Together, theyd only pick up 41 percent.

The breakdown: Overall, 89 percent of Liberal voters would back an LPC-NDP alliance; only 75 percent of NDP voters would do the same. The Conservative block would remain intact with 96 percent retention.

The end result: With 41 percent of the vote and favorable regional numbers (see below), this hypothetical alliance would likely beat the Conservatives in a general election.

Using Lgers numbers, the 338Canada model estimates it would win around 175 seats against about 130 seats for the Conservatives. It would be a win for the alliance, but barely above the majority threshold in the seat count.

The short-term gains could well lead to long-term pains, a victory likely to become unstable with the wear and tear of time.

Lets quickly look at the regional breakdown.

Ontario: Lger measures the Conservatives ahead by four points in Ontario (37 percent to 33 percent). When asked about a speculative alliance, 46 percent of Ontario respondents would support it, while 39 percent would side with the Conservatives.

As separate parties, the LPC and NDP would amass 56 percent of the Ontario vote, according to Lger. Together, their share would drop to 46 percent. In that scenario, the Conservatives, Greens and the Peoples Party would fare better by a few points.

Quebec: In Quebec, Lger measures a statistical tie between the Liberals (31 percent) and the Bloc Qubcois (30 percent). The CPC takes a distant third with 19 percent, while the New Democrats amass only 14 percent.

How would Quebec voters react to an LPC-NDP alliance?

The LPC-NDP combo would take first place with 37 percent, but with a proportion of voters dramatically lower than the sum of its parts (45 percent). In fact, given the size of the Quebec subsample, the LPC-NDP alliance would still be in a statistical tie with the Bloc Qubcois (34 percent), which would pick up four points. Seat-wise, the Quebec landscape would be eerily similar to the one revealed after recent elections.

Western Canada: Potential seat gains for an LPC-NDP alliance would be limited. In British Columbia, the alliance would not do better than a tie against the Conservatives. In Alberta and the Prairies, the CPC would retain their dominance in seats and vote totals.

The bottom line: In Canadian politics, the party that wins the center, wins elections. The center may be a moving target, but the point remains that neither of the main parties will benefit by migrating too far to either side of the spectrum.

With Poilievre taking the CPC to the right, appealing to his hardcore base with an anti-CBC and anti-elite stance, Liberals need to be wary of the siren call that is further rapprochement with the NDP. Lgers numbers suggest it could be a one-time hit with limited long-term upside.

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338Canada: What if the Liberals and NDP were to join forces on the campaign? - POLITICO