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The summer began with a high-stakes byelection that the Liberals lost, sending them into a vortex of self-reflection and internal dissent.

What if the summer ends with another one?

The TorontoSt. Pauls byelection went worse than the Liberals could have hoped. They had pulled out all the stops to win it, sending cabinet ministers out to go door-knocking in a riding the party hadnt lost in over 30 years. While the margin was close, the loss stung. It was the first defeat the Liberals have suffered in Toronto since Justin Trudeau became leader of the party in 2013.

It wont be the last test the Liberals will face before the next general election. At least three more byelections have to be held within the next six months. CloverdaleLangley City in British Columbia doesnt need to be called before the end of November, while ElmwoodTranscona in Manitoba can wait until the end of September (and is an NDP riding, anyway).

The deadline to set the date for LaSallemardVerdun is fast-approaching, however. Trudeau has to call it by July 30.

(As of writing, Andy Fillmore hadnt vacated his Halifax riding yet. If he doesnt officially resign in the next few weeks, the Liberals might not have to call the byelection as the six-month window will overlap with the prohibition on byelections held within nine months of a fixed election date.)

A byelection in LaSallemardVerdun would not normally make the Liberals uneasy. Its a safe Montreal seat for the party.

But, then again, TorontoSt. Pauls was supposed to be a safe Liberal seat.

Read more:
LaSallemardVerdun: The Liberals' next test - The Writ