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Though the race is tightening, the Liberals under Brian Gallant appear on track to form New Brunswick's next government when voters go to the polls on Sept. 22.

The latest numbers put the Liberals in the lead with 45 per cent, against 36 per cent for David Alward's governing Progressive Conservatives. The New Democrats were at 11 per cent, with the Greens in fourth at six per cent.

The survey was conducted by Corporate Research Associates (CRA) between Sept. 15 and 18, interviewing 489 New Brunswickers via telephone. The margin of error associated with the survey is plus or minus 4.4 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

The Liberals have been polling in the mid-40s for some time, suggesting that the party's support is holding steady and this despite the problematic interview Gallant recently had with the CBC's Harry Forestell.

But the PCs could be in the midst of making a late-campaign surge. Compared withCRA's previous survey of Aug. 19-31, the party has experienced a seven-point increase. On the question of who would make the best premier, Alward was up five points to 27 per cent (Gallant was still ahead with 32 per cent). Neither Alward nor his party have polled this high since 2012.

This is only the first sign that the Tories may be making a move, however. A poll conducted by Forum Research on Sept. 11, surveying 732 New Brunswickers via interactive voice response, found no such momentum for the party.

The NDP, on the other hand, seems to be sliding. The party was down six points from CRA's previous survey, echoing a smaller drop recorded by Forum on Sept. 11. In addition, leader Dominic Cardy was down four points to just seven per cent on who would make the best premier. Cardy has never polled so low, and the party has not put up such poor numbers in more than three years.

If the Progressive Conservatives can continue to make some gains over the final weekend of the campaign, they certainly do have a chance at re-election. But the gap is a large one to overcome.

Taking into account the potential for the normal kind of polling error and late shifts that have occurred in other provinces, the current projection for the Liberals stands at between 43 and 49 per cent support, with the Tories between 34 and 39 per cent. The NDP would be well behind, at between eight and 15 per cent support.

These numbers are likely to deliver the Liberals a majority government of between 25 and 35 seats, with the Tories taking between 13 and 24 seats. The New Democrats have an outside chance of winning a single seat.

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Polls suggest Liberals poised for government in N.B., despite PC gains