WA election: Bookies tip bleak outlook for Liberals as odds of Labor government increase – ABC Online

Updated March 08, 2017 15:59:12

Two months ago, when the bookmakers had Labor as a strong favourite to end the Government's eight-and-a-half-year stint in office, Premier Colin Barnett encouraged punters to put their money where his mouth was.

"I'd put some money on the Liberal Party if I was you," Mr Barnett said at the time, insisting he was not worried by odds implying punters gave his Government little chance.

But the picture, at least according to the betting markets, has only grown bleaker for the Liberals as election day draws closer.

Two months ago, WA Labor had just an 8 per cent chance of defeating Corrective Services Minister Joe Francis in the safe Liberal seat of Jandakot, at least according to one bookmaker's odds.

Now, on the eve of Saturday's election, that same bookmaker has the two major parties neck and neck in what had been considered one of the Liberals' safest seats.

It is a similar story in Darling Range, where Labor was given just a 16 per cent chance in the same betting market two months ago, but it is now level with the Liberals in that bookmaker's eyes.

The Liberals' chance of holding onto Bunbury has fallen from 35 per cent to 7 per cent in the same time period, according to that same bookmaker.

A dramatic shift towards Labor has also been seen in the Liberal-held seat of Southern River - where the betting market implies the Opposition is now almost a 70 per cent chance of winning the seat from Peter Abetz, up from 25 per cent in January.

The bookies have Labor a strong favourite in Local Government Minister Paul Miles' seat of Wanneroo, while the market also suggests fellow Cabinet members John Day and Albert Jacob are in trouble in Kalamunda and Burns Beach respectively.

Although the odds suggest growing concern in particular seats for the Liberals, the overall market has only shifted slightly in the past two months.

In January, an aggregate of the odds of multiple bookmakers implied Labor had a 72 per cent chance of winning the election while the Government was at 28 per cent.

Labor's probability of winning, according to the odds, has only improved slightly since then to 75.98 per cent.

The odds also suggest One Nation's chance of holding significant influence in the next Parliament has improved.

One bookmaker's odds suggested One Nation's chance of winning at least one Upper House seat is above 95 per cent.

Topics: elections, political-parties, gambling, wa

First posted March 08, 2017 14:24:48

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WA election: Bookies tip bleak outlook for Liberals as odds of Labor government increase - ABC Online

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