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Worse still, the oil blockade imposed since January by the renegade general prosecuting this war has imposed serious financial constraints on a state that not only relies on imports for nearly everything but will also have additional budgetary tolls from its Covid-19 response. Initially this meant that the system Libyan importers use for everything from pharmaceuticals to basic goods, a central bank issued letter of credit were unavailable. Although these restrictions were eventually eased, it has coalesced with general attacks from both sides on the others supply lines, as well as the imperatives of war to create shortages in basic goods.

This distressing mixture of war, shortages, and fear over Covid-19s many unknowns is yet one more force to push further atomisation and stir popular unrest. If severe outbreaks do occur, we could see key port cities closing themselves off from the rest of the country to try and hoard resources, under a worsening mentality of every city or tribe for themselves.

In eastern Libya, instead of leading too attempts to work with Tripolis GNA in a functional manner or with the municipality devolved budgets, a fear of unrest led to the military-style administration in de-facto power to take control of the Covid-19 response and threaten dissenters as treasonous. This followed a spree of protests after people were ordered into curfew before they were able to withdraw any money from banks still suffering a severe liquidity crisis.

Those protests and the fearful response to them highlight the potential for turbulence should Covid-19 take hold in Libya. Libyas healthcare system was in ruins well before this latest war started, and its resources have only been further consumed and depleted by the voracious requirements of this now stagnant war on Tripoli. Meanwhile, Libyas Centre for Disease Control is learning the extreme difficulties of emergency procurement amidst a global pandemic. Historically, Libyans would go abroad to seek treatment for any serious condition but given the closed borders of a world in lockdown, this too is now an impossibility. These are factors which all starkly highlight Libyas complete inability to deal with the exponential rise in cases that weve seen elsewhere.

Excerpt from:
A Libya story: pandemic and human rights in times of conflict - Open Democracy