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U.S.-backed Libyan partners are prioritizing the protection of their interests in Libyas ongoing civil war over the fight against Salafi-jihadi groups. Misratan militias aligned with the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA) and supported by U.S. air power seized Sirte from the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in December 2016. The fall of Sirte re-activated the ground conflict between the Misratans and Libyas other most powerful faction, the Libyan National Army (LNA), over military, political, and economic dominance in Libyas post-revolution power vacuum. The protraction of Libyas civil war preserves the conditions that allowed ISIS and al Qaeda to take root and expand in Libya.

Libyas rival factions are jockeying for power in oil-rich central and southern Libya. Misratan militias used the Sirte campaign to both fight ISIS and extend their influence into central Libya. The Misratans eastward movement brought them into direct competition with the LNA, which similarly expanded into central Libya in September 2016. The Misratans and the LNA have since deployed forces to potential frontlines in contested regions, limiting the resources that they can apply to counter ISIS and al Qaeda-linked militants in western Libya and Benghazi. Continued escalation is likely, following an LNA airstrike on a Misratan plane in al Jufra and clashes over military sites near Sebha.

The growing LNA-Misratan conflict plays in favor of ISIS and al Qaeda as LNA and Misratan militias divert resources from the fight against them. Both groups are benefitting from the time and space created by the current conflict to reset and prepare for future attacks.

ISIS and al Qaeda should be able to recover from recent losses in the current environment. They are also able to initiate new operations that will strengthen both groups in the long term. ISIS and al Qaeda use Libya as a key regional hub and a base on the Mediterranean. These groups will use the freedom of movement provided by Libyas civil war to pursue core objectives that include breaking North African states, expanding safe havens and governance, and attacking Europe. The resurgence of ISIS in Libya would undermine U.S. counterterrorism policy, which relies on containing ISISs regional affiliates while defeating the group in its core terrain.

Excerpt from:
Fighting Forces in Libya: January 2017 - Critical Threats Project