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But that flow stalled suddenly and unexpectedly several weeks ago. At the height of summer, when the weather is generally better, Libyan smugglers typically send waves of migrants to sea every week or so. But since 15 July, there have been no such spikes and migration experts say they do not properly understand why.

Im still trying to explain it, said Mark Micallef, senior research fellow at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, a research organization that documents human trafficking in Libya. If you look at arrival statistics historically, they should be hitting a peak now in July and August, he said. But instead were seeing a dramatic drop.

The dip follows prolonged attempts by Italy to improve the capability of the Libyan Coast Guard and to discourage several nongovernmental organizations from operating migrant rescue boats off the Libyan coast.

Over the past year, Italy and its allies in the European Union have trained over a hundred Libyan Coast Guard officials and supplied them with more boats and resources.

In recent days, the coast guards leadership threatened to attack boats operated by charities like Doctors Without Borders, prompting several of those groups to suspend rescue operations. Italy has also sent naval ships to assist the coast guard in Libyan waters and has made it harder for boats from nongovernmental organizations to operate freely in Italian waters.

There is some speculation that the drop in departures is a result of those measures, but specialists say the truth is more complicated. For instance, the lull began before the rescue boats were forced to suspend operations and before the arrival of the Italian naval ships.

The rate of interceptions of migrant boats by the Libyan Coast Guard has actually fallen since May undermining suggestions that increased activity at sea by the service has caused the slowdown in departures.

A lot has been said about the coast guards, Mr. Micallef said. But, he continued, from where Im standing, something is happening onshore rather than offshore.

Several analysts suggested that the main smuggling networks in Libyan coastal towns such as Sabratha, the main springboard for migrants heading to Italy, may have been persuaded or coerced into suspending their operations.

Mohamed al-Muntasser, a Libyan political analyst, said a new armed group in Sabratha calling itself National Guard, Sabratha Branch, and with links to Libyas internationally recognized government had played a central role in persuading smugglers to stand down.

Some of our forces and our officials have decided that they will tighten the screw a bit either by doing their job or by telling their friends and relatives in the criminal fraternity that they should stop, at least for a little while, Mr. Muntasser said.

One Sabratha-based smuggler, who goes by the name Mourad Zuwara, confirmed in a phone call that local forces had recently forced him to abandon operations in the town, but he did not elaborate.

Other partial explanations include a drop in migrant arrivals to Libya from Niger and a marginal increase in departures from Morocco, which some migrants use as part of an alternative route to Europe.

Whatever the cause, the drop in Libyan departures will probably hearten officials in Rome, who have been trying to find solutions to the migration crisis. But the change alarms rights activists, who fear for the welfare of the thousands of migrants now stuck in Libya, where they are often kept in conditions akin to slavery.

Analysts also cautioned that the lull was unlikely to be permanent, because Libyas many competing militias and smugglers make so much money from the crossings that they will be unwilling to abandon the trade for long.

My biggest question, said Mattia Toaldo, a Libya researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, is for how long is this going to last?

Follow Patrick Kingsley on Twitter @patrickkingsley.

Elisabetta Povoledo and Jason Horowitz contributed reporting from Rome, and Karam Shoumali from Istanbul.

A version of this article appears in print on August 19, 2017, on Page A4 of the New York edition with the headline: Migrant Flow to Italy Slows, But No One Can Say Why.

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Flow of Migrants to Italy Slows, but Nobody Knows Why - New York Times