Libya’s Oil Production Is Unlikely To Increase Further For 2017 – Seeking Alpha

According to the latest secondary sources, Libya's oil production has climbed from ~350k b/d last year to ~650k to ~700k b/d in January. The return in Libya's oil production is attributed to the production increase from the west, El Feel and Sharara. We covered this topic here.

With Libya's oil production sitting comfortably around 700k b/d, there are doubts as to whether Libya can continue to increase its oil production past 700k b/d. The first sign of tension is still geopolitics, as the tensions between the West and the East in Libya - along with conflicts with militias - make additional capital investments into Libya's oil infrastructure unlikely. Also, Libya's oil production is reaching current capacity as infrastructure constraints start to impact production and exports. And additional capital will be needed if Libya is to reinvigorate its aged oil fields.

This is what Energy Aspects recently said about Libya's oil production:

The biggest gain came from Libya, up by 40 thousand b/d to 0.62 mb/d (EA: +30 thousand b/d to 0.61 mb/d) due to the restart of the 0.30 mb/d Sharara field during the month. The field continued to ramp up gradually in January, taking Libyan output above 0.70 mb/d early in the month, although bad weather disrupting loadings, a lack of storage, and power outages briefly reduced it to 0.66 mb/d mid-month. Political tensions remain high, which is likely to prompt further disruptions in the coming months.

The estimates we've currently seen peg Libya's oil production to stagnate in the coming months, declining from an average of 600k b/d to 400k b/d from Q2 and onward. The quick ramp up in production will be met with operational difficulties. Unless geopolitical tension eases in Libya, we won't likely see capital return back to the country, and infrastructure constraints and natural production decline will eat into its 680k b/d production.

We do not expect Libya to increase oil production further from here.

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Libya's Oil Production Is Unlikely To Increase Further For 2017 - Seeking Alpha

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