Oil up over 1% on lower US output forecast, Libya, Nigeria production-cap talk – MarketWatch

Oil climbed Tuesday, as a lower 2018 forecast on U.S. crude production and speculation of possible output curbs in Libya and Nigeria fueled the strongest session gain for prices in over a week.

Expectations for a second-consecutive weekly decline in U.S. crude supplies also provided support.

August West Texas Intermediate crude CLQ7, +1.44% rose 64 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $45.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the largest dollar and percentage gain since July 3, FactSet data show. September Brent crude LCOU7, +1.20% on ICE Futures Europe added 64 cents, or 1.4%, to $47.52 a barrel.

In a monthly report issued Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration lowered its WTI and Brent oil-price forecasts for this year and next and cut its 2018 U.S. production forecast by 1% to 9.90 million barrels a day.

Still, on an annual basis, 2018 domestic production remains on track to reach a record high.

Read: Lower oil prices set to slow 2018 growth in U.S. crude production, says EIA

Earlier Tuesday, Enrico Chiorando, a U.K.-based analyst at energy consultancy Love Energy, noted that investors remain cautious, with several banks cutting their forecasts on oil.

Read: Forget about oil rising above $50 this summer, Barclays says

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries faces overwhelming pressure to curb global supplies, possibly by bringing Libya and Nigeria, which have been exempt from production cuts, into the fold, Chiorando said.

Also read: OPEC mulls oil production caps for Libya, Nigeria

Oil prices fell roughly 4% last week, but saw a tepid recovery Monday, boosted by news that OPEC could pressure Nigeria and Libya to curb their oil production, which has been on the rise. Both are members of OPEC but exempt from the group-led agreement to cut global output by 2%. The exemption was meant to allow their production to rebound following years of fighting between the countries governments and local insurgents.

Check out: U.S. shale oil investment surges more than 50% in 2017, IEA says

Libya and Nigeria have been invited to attend a meeting of OPECs monitoring panel on July 24 in Moscow.

Traders and analysts were also looking ahead to monthly oil reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency, to be released Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

The American Petroleum Institutes weekly U.S. petroleum supplies data will be released later Tuesday. Separately, the EIAs weekly supply report will be released Wednesday.

Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts expect the government agency to report a decline of 2.6 million barrels in crude supplies for the week ended July 7. Inventories had dropped by more than 6 million barrels the previous week.

The S&P Global Platts survey also calls for an increase of 400,000 barrels for gasoline stocks, and a rise of 1.2 million barrels for distillates.

On Nymex, August gasoline RBQ7, +0.91% rose 1.8 cents, or 1.2%, to $1.518 a gallon, while August heating oil HOQ7, +0.81% climbed 2.3 cents, or 1.6%, to $1.476 a gallon.

Natural-gas prices traded at their highest levels of this month so far as warm weather forecasts raised demand prospects.

August natural gas NGQ17, -0.36% settled at $3.047 per million British thermal units, up 11.8 cents, or 4%.

Weather forecast revisions have continued to lean bullish over the past 48 hours, with expectations for above average temperatures across the Midwest and western U.S., as well as parts of the east coast, all expected to boost cooling demand and connected gas power burn, said Robbie Fraser, commodity analyst at Schneider Electric.

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Oil up over 1% on lower US output forecast, Libya, Nigeria production-cap talk - MarketWatch

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