Opinion | Covid has exposed the limitations of machine learning – Livemint
Last Friday, the USs Dow Jones Index climbed up by almost 1,000 points. The U.S. Labor Department said that the economy unexpectedly added 2.5 million jobs in May. This followed a depressing April, when the country shed as many as 20 million jobs. This lowered the unemployment rate to roughly 13%, versus the 15% it had hit in April. The report also surprised economists and analysts who had forecast millions more losing their jobs. Their Machine Learning (ML) models were predicting that the jobless rate would continue to rise to over 20%.
This isnt the first time that the technology around ML has failed. In 2016, sophisticated ML algorithms failed to predict the outcomes of both the Brexit vote as well as the US presidential election. Some make the argument that algorithm-driven machine prediction was in its infancy in 2016. If thats the case, then what have the intervening four years of computer programming and an explosion of data available to train" deep-learning algorithms really achieved?
As a concept, ML represents the idea that a computer, when fed with enough raw data, can begin on its own to see patterns and rules in these numbers. It can also learn to recognize, categorize and feed new data upon arrival into the patterns and rules already created by the computer program. As more data is received, it adds to the intelligence" of the computer by making its patterns and rules ever more refined and reliable.
There is still a small but pertinent inconvenience that deserves our attention. Despite the great advances in computing, it is still very difficult to teach computers both human context and basic common sense. The brute-force approach of Artificial Intelligence (AI) behemoths does not rely on well-codified rules based on common sense. It relies instead on the raw computing power of machines to sift thousands upon thousands of potential combinations before selecting the best answer using pattern-matching. This applies as much to questions that are intuitively answered by five-year-olds as it does to a medical image diagnosis.
These same algorithms have been guiding decisions made by businesses for a while nowespecially strategic and other shifts in corporate direction based on consumer behaviour. In a world where corporations make binary choices (either path X or path Y, but not both), these algorithms still fall short.
The pandemic has exposed their insufficiency further. This is especially true with ML systems at e-commerce retailers that were initially programmed to make sense of our online behaviour. During the pandemic, our online behaviour has been volatile. News reports in various Western countries that kept e-commerce alive during their lockdowns have focused on retailers trying to optimize toilet paper stocks one week and stay-at-home board games the next.
The disruption in ML is widespread. Our online buying behaviour influences a whole hoard of subsidiary computer systems. These are in areas such as inventory and supply chain management, marketing, pricing, fraud detection and so on.
To an interested observer, it would appear that many of these algorithms base themselves on stationary assumptions about data. A detailed explanation of how stationary processes are used for statistical data modeling and predictions can be found here. Very simply put, this means that algorithms assume that the rules havent changed, or wont change due to some event in the future. Surprisingly, this goes against the basic admonition that almost all professional investors bake into their fine print, especially the one that says, Past performance is no predictor of future performance."
The paradox is that finding patterns and then using them to make useful predictions is what ML is all about in the first place. But static assumptions have meant that the data sets used to train ML models havent included anything more than elementary worst case" information. They didnt expect a pandemic.
Also, bias, even when it is not informed by such negative qualities as racism, is often added into these algorithms long before they spit out computer code. The bias enters through the manner in which an ML solution is framed, the presence of unknown unknowns" in data sets, and in how the data is prepared before it is fed into a computer.
Compounding such biases is the phenomenon of an echo chamber" that is created by finely-targeted algorithms that these companies use. The original algorithms induced users to stay online longer and bombarded them with an echo-chamber overload of information that served to reinforce what the algorithm thinks the searcher needs to know. For instance, if I search for a particular type of phone on an e-commerce site, future searches are likely to auto-complete with that phone showing up even before I key in my entire search string. The algorithm gets thrown off when I search for toilet paper instead.
The situation brought about by the covid pandemic is still volatile and fluid. The training data sets and the computer code they produce to adjust predictive ML algorithms are unequal to the volatility. They need constant manual supervision and tweaking so that they do not throw themselves and other sophisticated downstream automated processes out of gear. It appears that consistent human involvement in automated systems will be around for quite some time.
Siddharth Pai is founder of Siana Capital, a venture fund management company focused on deep science and tech in India
Subscribe to newsletters
* Enter a valid email
* Thank you for subscribing to our newsletter.
See the original post here:
Opinion | Covid has exposed the limitations of machine learning - Livemint
- Open source machine learning systems are highly vulnerable to security threats - TechRadar - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- After the PS5 Pro's less dramatic changes, PlayStation architect Mark Cerny says the next-gen will focus more on CPUs, memory, and machine-learning -... - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Accelerating LLM Inference on NVIDIA GPUs with ReDrafter - Apple Machine Learning Research - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Machine learning for the prediction of mortality in patients with sepsis-associated acute kidney injury: a systematic review and meta-analysis - BMC... - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Machine learning uncovers three osteosarcoma subtypes for targeted treatment - Medical Xpress - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- From Miniatures to Machine Learning: Crafting the VFX of Alien: Romulus - Animation World Network - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Identification of hub genes, diagnostic model, and immune infiltration in preeclampsia by integrated bioinformatics analysis and machine learning -... - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- This AI Paper from Microsoft and Novartis Introduces Chimera: A Machine Learning Framework for Accurate and Scalable Retrosynthesis Prediction -... - December 18th, 2024 [December 18th, 2024]
- Benefits and Challenges of Integrating AI and Machine Learning into EHR Systems - Healthcare IT Today - December 18th, 2024 [December 18th, 2024]
- The History Of AI: How Machine Learning's Evolution Is Reshaping Everything Around Us - SlashGear - December 18th, 2024 [December 18th, 2024]
- AI and Machine Learning to Enhance Pension Plan Governance and the Investor Experience: New CFA Institute Research - Fintech Finance - December 18th, 2024 [December 18th, 2024]
- Address Common Machine Learning Challenges With Managed MLflow - The New Stack - December 18th, 2024 [December 18th, 2024]
- Machine Learning Used To Classify Fossils Of Extinct Pollen - Offworld Astrobiology Applications? - Astrobiology News - December 18th, 2024 [December 18th, 2024]
- Machine learning model predicts CDK4/6 inhibitor effectiveness in metastatic breast cancer - News-Medical.Net - December 18th, 2024 [December 18th, 2024]
- New Lockheed Martin Subsidiary to Offer Machine Learning Tools to Defense Customers - ExecutiveBiz - December 18th, 2024 [December 18th, 2024]
- How Powerful Will AI and Machine Learning Become? - International Policy Digest - December 18th, 2024 [December 18th, 2024]
- ChatGPT-Assisted Machine Learning for Chronic Disease Classification and Prediction: A Developmental and Validation Study - Cureus - December 18th, 2024 [December 18th, 2024]
- Blood Tests Are Far From Perfect But Machine Learning Could Change That - Inverse - December 18th, 2024 [December 18th, 2024]
- Amazons AGI boss: You dont need a PhD in machine learning to build with AI anymore - Fortune - December 18th, 2024 [December 18th, 2024]
- From Novice to Pro: A Roadmap for Your Machine Learning Career - KDnuggets - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Dimension nabs $500M second fund for 'still contrary' intersection of bio and machine learning - Endpoints News - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Using Machine Learning to Make A Really Big Detailed Simulation - Astrobites - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Driving Business Growth with GreenTomatos Data and Machine Learning Strategy on Generative AI - AWS Blog - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Unlocking the power of data analytics and machine learning to drive business performance - WTW - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- AI and the Ethics of Machine Learning | by Abwahabanjum | Dec, 2024 - Medium - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Differentiating Cystic Lesions in the Sellar Region of the Brain Using Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning for Early Diagnosis: A Prospective... - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- New Amazon SageMaker AI Innovations Reimagine How Customers Build and Scale Generative AI and Machine Learning Models - Amazon Press Release - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- What is Machine Learning? 18 Crucial Concepts in AI, ML, and LLMs - Netguru - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- Machine learning-based prediction of antibiotic resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis clinical isolates from Uganda - BMC Infectious Diseases - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- Interdisciplinary Team Needed to Apply Machine Learning in Epilepsy Surgery: Lara Jehi, MD, MHCDS - Neurology Live - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- A multimodal machine learning model for the stratification of breast cancer risk - Nature.com - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- Machine learning based intrusion detection framework for detecting security attacks in internet of things - Nature.com - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- Machine learning evaluation of a hypertension screening program in a university workforce over five years - Nature.com - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- Vaultree Introduces VENum Stack: Combining the Power of Machine Learning and Encrypted Data Processing for Secure Innovation - PR Newswire - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- Direct simulation and machine learning structure identification unravel soft martensitic transformation and twinning dynamics - pnas.org - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- AI and Machine Learning - Maryland to use AI technology to manage traffic flow - SmartCitiesWorld - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- Researchers make machine learning breakthrough in lithium-ion tech here's how it could make aging batteries safer - Yahoo! Voices - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- Integrating IoT and machine learning: Benefits and use cases - TechTarget - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- Landsat asks industry for artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning for satellite operations - Military & Aerospace Electronics - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- Machine learning optimized efficient graphene-based ultra-broadband solar absorber for solar thermal applications - Nature.com - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- Polymathic AI Releases The Well: 15TB of Machine Learning Datasets Containing Numerical Simulations of a Wide Variety of Spatiotemporal Physical... - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- Prediction of preterm birth using machine learning: a comprehensive analysis based on large-scale preschool children survey data in Shenzhen of China... - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- Application of machine learning algorithms to identify serological predictors of COVID-19 severity and outcomes - Nature.com - November 30th, 2024 [November 30th, 2024]
- Predicting the time to get back to work using statistical models and machine learning approaches - BMC Medical Research Methodology - November 30th, 2024 [November 30th, 2024]
- AI and Machine Learning - US releases recommendations for use of AI in critical infrastructure - SmartCitiesWorld - November 30th, 2024 [November 30th, 2024]
- Machine learning-based diagnostic model for stroke in non-neurological intensive care unit patients with acute neurological manifestations -... - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- Analysis of four long non-coding RNAs for hepatocellular carcinoma screening and prognosis by the aid of machine learning techniques - Nature.com - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- Evaluation and prediction of the physical properties and quality of Jatob-do-Cerrado seeds processed and stored in different conditions using machine... - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- Researchers use fitness tracker data and machine learning to detect bipolar disorder mood swings - Medical Xpress - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- Advances in AI and Machine Learning for Nuclear Applications - Frontiers - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- Researchers make machine learning breakthrough in lithium-ion tech here's how it could make aging batteries safer - The Cool Down - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- Svitla Systems Publishes Results of the Study on Machine Learning's Role in Credit Scoring - Newsfile - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- Predicting poor performance on cognitive tests among older adults using wearable device data and machine learning: a feasibility study - Nature.com - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- Quantum Machine Learning: Bridging the Future of AI and Quantum Computing - TechBullion - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- AI and machine learning trends in healthcare - Healthcare Leader - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- Identification of biomarkers for the diagnosis in colorectal polyps and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) by bioinformatics... - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- Revolutionizing Business Systems with Machine Learning: Practical Innovations for the Modern Era - TechBullion - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- Can AI improve plant-based meats? Using mechanical testing and machine learning to mimic the sensory experience - Phys.org - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Machine Learning Reveals Impact of Microbial Load on Gut Health and Disease - Genetic Engineering & Biotechnology News - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Machine learning for predicting in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with heart failure combined with hypertension: a multicenter retrospective... - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Apple Researchers Propose Cut Cross-Entropy (CCE): A Machine Learning Method that Computes the Cross-Entropy Loss without Materializing the Logits for... - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Exploring electron-beam induced modifications of materials with machine-learning assisted high temporal resolution electron microscopy - Nature.com - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Facilitated the discovery of new / Co-based superalloys by combining first-principles and machine learning - Nature.com - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Thwarting Phishing Attacks with Predictive Analytics and Machine Learning in 2024 - Petri.com - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Optoelectronic performance prediction of HgCdTe homojunction photodetector in long wave infrared spectral region using traditional simulations and... - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- A new approach for sex prediction by evaluating mandibular arch and canine dimensions with machine-learning classifiers and intraoral scanners (a... - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- AI and Machine Learning - Google and National League of Cities develop AI toolkit - SmartCitiesWorld - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Machine learning for the physics of climate - Nature.com - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- Red Hat acquires tech to lower the cost of machine learning - ComputerWeekly.com - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- SUU Professor Receives Grant to Develop Machine Learning Certificate - Southern Utah University - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- Research on the timing for subsequent water flooding in Alkali-Surfactant-Polymer flooding in Daqing Oilfield based on automated machine learning -... - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- SNPs and blood inflammatory marker featured machine learning for predicting the efficacy of fluorouracil-based chemotherapy in colorectal cancer -... - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- Speech production under stress for machine learning: multimodal dataset of 79 cases and 8 signals - Nature.com - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- Xbox Series X Machine Learning Hardware Has Some Use Cases, But Microsoft Never Showed Interest in Doing Anything With It - Wccftech - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- Get An Introduction to Optimization: With Applications to Machine Learning, 5th Edition for FREE and save $106! - BetaNews - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- New Study Uses fMRI and Machine Learning to Explore Brain Function - AZoRobotics - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- Introduction to Machine Learning (ML) | by Venkat | Nov, 2024 - Medium - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- The future of PC gaming will be AI-driven - AMD confirms machine learning FSR 4 for 2025, launching in Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 - TechRadar - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Machine-Learning Platform Gives DoD Ability To ID Threat Network Activity - Defense Innovation Unit - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Machine Learning Offers a Water Bill Discount to Wealthy Portlander - Willamette Week - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]