Mediaboss Marketing

Levels of social distancing needed to see a drop off in case numbers over time. Credit: Professor Mikhail Prokopenko.

As of July 2021, there is a continuing outbreak of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Sydney. The outbreak is of major concern as the Delta variant is estimated to have twice the reproductive number of previous variants that circulated in Australia in 2020, which is also worsened by low levels of acquired immunity in the population, said Professor Prokopenko, from the Faculty of Engineering.

Using a re-calibrated agent-basedmodel, we explored a feasible range of non-pharmaceutical interventions, in terms of both mitigation (case isolation, home quarantine) and suppression (school closures, social distancing).

Our modelling indicates that the level of social distancing currently attained in Sydney is inadequate for the outbreak control.

Our analysis suggests if, however, 80 percent of the population comply with social distancing, then at least one month will be needed for the new daily cases to reduce from their peak to below ten. A small reduction in social distancing compliance to 70 percent lengthens this period to over two months.

Continue reading here:
Far more social distancing needed to control Sydney outbreak - News - The University of Sydney