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Mike Pence stands beside Trump as he makes a speech in the East Room on July 17th.

By Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images.

In the first months of the Trump administration, Mike Pence appears to have performed a miraculous balancing act: pledging loyalty to his boss while gliding away from incessant scandal and turbulence, hair unruffled, a confident smile on his face. In an epically chaotic administration, he was the sane one, the competent one. He was taking the best of Trumpthe baseand discarding the worst. In May, he started his own PAC, and hes already been cultivating big G.O.P. money, fueling speculation about his political future. The thought of President Pencewhether in 2024 or much soonerpleased many conservatives, and made Democrats afraid. He has sort of been above the fray . . . It seems hes escaped any of the fallout, David Woodard, a G.O.P. political consultant and professor of political science at Clemson University, told me. Pence has kind of a lunch bucket mentality of a day-to-day working member of the administration . . . quietly working and not much in the forefront.

Last week, however, Pence seemed to stumble on the wire. When the Donnygate scandal hit at the start of last week and Donald Trump surrogates took to the airwaves to offer full-throated defenses of the president, Mike Pences aides took a more selfish line. The vice president was not aware of the meeting, Marc Lotter, Pences press secretary, said of the controversial rendezvous between senior members of the Trump campaign, a Russian attorney and alleged ex-Soviet spy last June. He is not focused on stories about the campaign, particularly stories about a time before he joined the ticket. Lotter added, The vice president is working every day to advance the presidents agenda.

But Pence, for almost the first time, was wobbling. The denial incited a flurry of headlines suggesting that Pence sought to put daylight between himself and the president and was reportedly viewed by some in the White House as an affront to President Trump. Pences team promptly sought to quash the narrative that he was anything but loyal to his boss, lambasting it as offensive. But the strong word underlined how eager Pences team is to put the episode in the rearview.

Then came health care. Pence had made a show of rolling up his sleeves and diving into the specifics, a businesslike soldier for the presidents agenda. But his trip to the National Governors Association summer meeting last Friday was widely panned. He was a highly imperfect messenger for the bill, given that hed expanded Indianas Medicaid program under the Affordable Care Act, himself, and some of his statements from the podiumfor instance, that millions wouldnt lose coverage under the Senate health-care bill and that the Medicaid expansion under Obamacare has resulted in disabled Americans being denied carewere risible falsehoods. His attacks on John Kasich of Ohio made him look out of his depth. This is a dramatic change to what most of us have reacted to within the last four years, Brian Sandoval, Nevadas popular Republican governor, told reporters. Democratic Governor Dan Malloy of Connecticut characterized Pences tactics as ham-handed.

His number one success while he was governor was implementing the plan called Healthy Indiana Plan 2.0. And that was a Medicaid expansion program that looked just like any other Medicaid expansion program, Michael Leppert, a Democratic lobbyist in Indiana, said in an interview. He will have a hard time reconciling that, and that reconciliation is where I think youre probably going to find most of his mistakes coming from. What message hes trying to deliverand whats real.

Pence also missed the crucial defections. Pence, along with Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price, who was the White Houses point person on health care, was reportedly supposed to be monitoring Mike Lees stance on the legislation. But he failed to foresee the Utah senators decision on Monday night to oppose the bill, announced jointly with that of Jerry Moran, which effectively killed the legislation.

When it comes to forcing difficult policy details down the throats of skeptical senatorsno, he wouldnt be on my list of top 10,000 people to do that, Scott Pelath, the Democratic minority leader in the Indiana House of representatives, said in an interview. I think there are things that he could add to the Trump administration. If I was in those shoes I could think of a list of ideas to use him to move a national message, but sending him up before Congress is not it.

For the G.O.P., Pence has thus far been a kind of security blanket, comfortable but not exactly a savior. He doesnt have to impress, as long as he doesnt implode. Among Republicans, Pences ability to dodge the roving spotlight in the Russia saga has been welcomed. The perfect conservative counterweight to Trump and a known quantity on Capitol Hill, the vice president is viewed as a stabilizing force who will steward the conservative agenda through Congress. Voters who are not really thrilled with Trump but resigned to him like having Pence in there because hes kind of a steadying rock for them. And the fact that hes doing day-to-day work and doesnt appear in any controversies is kind of reassuring, Woodard says. Barry Wynn, the former South Carolina Republican Party chairman, echoes the sentiment. I think he is doing the right thing by supporting the administration, but not being involved in the hand-to-hand combat about Russia, Wynn, who also served on the National Finance Committee, said during an interview. I think its the right thing for him, but I also think it is the right thing for the administration to protect their effectiveness. . . . They need somebody within the administration thats going to be truly effective and concentrate on those issues that they are trying to move forward.

Whether Pences entanglement with Trump has tarnished his reputation is a matter of debate among Republicans. One G.O.P. strategist speaking on the condition of anonymity, recently told me, I think, to some degree, no matter how hard he tries to stay above the fray, he is going to be forever linked to Donald Trump, and added, I dont think Pence would get a free pass by other potential Republican candidates if he were to run in 2020 or beyond. But last week, as Donnygate was unfolding, another top Republican consultant close to the Hill dismissed the idea that Trump Jr.s meeting with Russians at Trump Tower hurt the vice presidents standing. No impact, he wrote in an e-mail, adding that Pence is as strong as ever and that its all noise.

Republicans, they know him, they trust him, they consider him kind of a friend, Wynn said. I think he has built up a tremendous amount of loyalty and trustworthiness with all of those members. Rick Wilson, a G.O.P. strategist and known Never Trumper, suggested that Republican lawmakers have endeavored to protect Pence from the emanating Russia scandal. I think some of them are doing some scenario planning, some of them just want somebody that they know speaks their language, and some of them want somebody that understands the tribal culture of the Hill, which he does, Wilson told me in a recent interview. So a lot of them are protecting him and keeping him sort of a little bit above the fray because they would like to have a backup plan just in case.

Where conservatives see a strength, however, Democrats see a credibility problem. When Pence denied knowing about Michael Flynns lobbying work, Representative Elijah Cummingsthe ranking member of the House Oversight Committeerebuked the defense. During an interview with CNNs Chris Cuomo, the Maryland Democrat said that his committee sent a letter to Pence last November about Flynns Turkish ties. Either hes not telling the truth, or he was running a sloppy shop because we have a receipt, Chris, that says they received the letter. Now, I know things get mixed up in the mail. I got that, he said. My belief is they really wanted this guy to be part of their operation, period.

Its worth remembering that, as of last summer, Pence was not exactly a political shooting star. In fact, getting plucked out of Indiana to join Trump on the Republican ticket as the vice-presidential nominee, arguably, saved his political career. Following his notorious flip-flop on the Religious Freedom Restoration Actwhich almost cost the midwestern state millions of dollars and was viewed by some on the right as a betrayala prolonged lead-poisoning crisis in his own backyard, an H.I.V. outbreak that ravaged rural Indiana on his watch, and his decision to sign an anti-abortion law that was ultimately ruled unconstitutional, Pence was battling middling approval ratings and was vulnerable to losing his gubernatorial re-election campaign when Trump tapped him as his running mate.

In Indiana, a lot of people would say that he might be the luckiest politician of all time. Hes certainly one of the luckiest politicians people in Indiana know, Leppert said. Everyone, Republican, Democrat alike, saw [the governorship] as him preparing to run for the next level . . . there should have been some level of expectation that he wouldve thrown his hat into the ring to run for president in 2016 had he not had that political setback that R.F.R.A. served . . . and actually, he had a re-elect campaign that was going to be all he could handle in Indiana before he got the nod for the V.P.

In 2015, shortly after he signed the R.F.R.A., Pence appeared on ABCs This Week with George Stephanopoulos to defend the controversial law. When asked multiple times whether it was legal for a florist in Indiana to refuse to sell flowers to a gay couple for their wedding, the then governor demurred and employed many of the same tactics he has employed to dodge impropriety as vice presidentdismissing the question as misinformation and shameless rhetoric and arguing, The issue is, Is tolerance a two-way street or not? Ultimately, Pence refused to say the law didnt discriminate against the L.G.B.T.Q. community and the interview incited a deluge of criticism that prompted the law to be re-written. But the botched appearance also revealed the limits of Pences gymnastic obfuscation skills, prefiguring the current moment. Even the most artful balancing act cant last forever.

The O.G. Never Trumper, Romney effectively renounced his past denunciations of the president-elect, whom he had previously called a con man, when Trump began publicly courting him for secretary of state. (He did not get the job.)

A long time ago, in the year 2016, the R.N.C. chairman threw everything he could to prevent Trump from becoming the partys nominee. Days after Trump won, Reince stood by his side as his chief of staff, possibly getting the least humiliating outcome for an erstwhile Trump foe.

The House Speaker spent months trying to maintain a safe distance from Trump, condemning his statements (even as he declined to renounce him) and at one point canceling a rally appearance with Trump after his past p****-grabbing comments came to light. Flash-forward two months, and Ryan was praising Trump in front of a cheering crowd in Wisconsin, thanking him for clinching the first Republican presidential win in the state in decades.

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The O.G. Never Trumper, Romney effectively renounced his past denunciations of the president-elect, whom he had previously called a con man, when Trump began publicly courting him for secretary of state. (He did not get the job.)

Digital Colorization by Ben Park; From Getty Images.

Digital Colorization by Ben Park; From Getty Images.

Digital Colorization by Ben Park.

A long time ago, in the year 2016, the R.N.C. chairman threw everything he could to prevent Trump from becoming the partys nominee. Days after Trump won, Reince stood by his side as his chief of staff, possibly getting the least humiliating outcome for an erstwhile Trump foe.

Digital Colorization by Ben Park; From Getty Images.

Digital Colorization by Ben Park; From PBS.

The House Speaker spent months trying to maintain a safe distance from Trump, condemning his statements (even as he declined to renounce him) and at one point canceling a rally appearance with Trump after his past p****-grabbing comments came to light. Flash-forward two months, and Ryan was praising Trump in front of a cheering crowd in Wisconsin, thanking him for clinching the first Republican presidential win in the state in decades.

Digital Colorization by Ben Park; From Getty Images.

Digital Colorization by Ben Park; From Getty Images.

Digital Colorization by Ben Park; From Getty Images.

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Mike Pence's Master Plan Goes Up in Smoke | Vanity Fair - Vanity Fair