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New Delhi: Chinese foreign policy is set to become more assertive in the future, but it might still be premature to see the current muscle flexing by the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) in the Himalayas as an indication of Chinas new assertive policy, said M.K. Narayanan, former national security advisor of India.

The most important thing is not to view every skirmish as the beginning of a new war, he said.

Former foreign secretary Vijay Gokhale also argued that the two informal summits between President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi opened a communication line between the two leaders, and talking often will help prevent mishaps.

China doesnt want to overthrow the US-led global order, it just wants to capture the existing one and rule over it, said Gokhale.

The two were speaking at an online seminar Friday on COVID-19 & India-China Global Dynamics, organised by the Chennai International Centre, and were joined by Tanvi Madan of Brookings Institution, James Crabtree of Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, and Ashwani Mahajan of Delhi University and national co-convener of Swadeshi Jagaran Manch.

Other than the India-China stand-off, the discussion covered the change in US global role in a post-Covid era, the underlying currents of Indo-Chinese relations, and the possible opportunities and challenges for India going ahead.

Talking about the ongoing stand-off, Crabtree remarked that it is a good metaphor for the general India-China relationship.

If you look at the past few years, you have two sides building infrastructure next to each other. They are testing each others boundaries. And such stand-offs are becoming a pattern in their relations now, said Crabtree.

Also read: China believes India wants Aksai Chin back. PLA has likely secured 40-60 sq km in Ladakh

Narayanan urged caution when looking at the current Indo-Chinese stand-off. What I say is a reflection of past history the most important thing is not to view every skirmish as the beginning of a new war, he said.

I was there in 1959, 60, 61, 62 the two sides try to play chess at the border but to use the term military stand-off is too much. As someone who has seen this situation developing over the past 50-60 years, we should see issue firmly and coolly, said Narayanan, who had also served as the chief of the Intelligence Bureau and Joint Intelligence Committee.

According to the former national security adviser (NSA) the key problem with the India-China border is that it is un-demarcated and undefined. It happens that we have our perception and China has their own. Every dynasty in China has drawn their own version of the maps, he said.

He also said that during his discussions with his Chinese counterparts, Narayanan did not sense that the Chinese are anxious about their border conflict with India. According to the former NSA, what makes China really anxious is Indias soft power.

China is worried that India has many civilisational advantages over them. They are unable to comprehend Indian soft power. China wants to dominate the Asian order but not through firing guns across the border, said Narayanan.

Also read: Chinese aggression in Ladakh also a message for domestic and external audience: Experts

Prime Minister Modi had come under sharp criticism for promoting a China reset following his informal summits with the Chinese President Xi Jinping at Wuhan and Mamallapuram. Critics note that China has continued with its border aggression despite those summits.

Crabtree said this clearly indicates a breakdown of the Wuhan consensus.

Former foreign secretary Gokhale, however, did not agree with the criticism, who argued that the informal summits created an important channel of communication between the two leaders.

The two summits might prevent a mishap from happening. They cant really resolve all long-standing problems, but they have helped manage them, said Gokhale.

Also read: Doklam to Galwan: Have Modi-Xi informal summits been more about optics than border peace?

Commenting on how the US might conceptualise its global role in the post-Covid era, Madan said a lot will depend on when and how US emerges from the pandemic.

It would take a while before we can see pandemics political and geopolitical impact on the US, according to Madan. The speed on recovery would have an effect on US economic choices also the resources it would have available for its foreign policy. This would determine what kind of regional or global role it wants to play, she added.

Most of the speakers agreed that China stands to gain in the post-Covid era.

The Chinese economy has a lot of structural problems, but as a place to do manufacturing in, China is still very hard to beat, said Crabtree.

Given that China has been able to recover from the pandemic faster than others, it will likely gain from its inclusion in Asian travel bubbles and increased trade, he added. Moreover, the backlash against China as we see in the West, doesnt really exist in the West, he said.

When talking about Chinas long-term ambitions, Gokhale dismissed the notion of China wanting to build a new world order what they refer to as the community of shared future of the mankind.

It has no central point, no theory, its a wooly idea, remarked Gokhale. We need to move away from the idea of Chinese wanting a new world order. They just want to take over the existing one and rule over it. Thats why they want their initiatives such as Belt and Road to be approved by the United Nations.

Also read: Why India wont take sides on US-China spat over Covid, despite skirmishes in Sikkim-Ladakh

Similar to the US, how India is able to leverage the opportunities in the post-Covid era will depend on what its recovery from the pandemic looks like, said Madan. And in terms of global supply chains moving to India, the speakers felt that a lot would depend on Indias ability to conduct a series of domestic reforms.

If they were a part of RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), they could have taken relatively more advantage of the current situation, said Crabtree. Closing yourself doesnt help. Nobody thought that joining RCEP would be cost free for India, but neither was joining WTO for China.

Also read: Indias bargaining power with China and US will grow in post-Covid world

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Chinas muscle-flexing in Ladakh doesnt mean theres a war coming, says former NSA - ThePrint